First - the highest quality analysis as always. I will finally make time to subscribe. Your work is worth it.
More people need to be made aware that many of these BB rating sites grade on a curve and are skewed by preseason predictions, apparently not running numerous iterations to adjust team efficiencies and "grades" to correct this problem.
Another problem, if they were truly adjusted for opponent quality, every team's best games would not consistently be against low quality opponents and Gonzaga would not be #1 in everything every year after playing most of their season against D2 level opponents. Of course, the ones that grade on a per game basis with no regard to opponent tell you what your team really did that day. Is that all correct?
I love Toppin but as pointed out, he is a problem in our offense, but he is not a bad player. He is a piece, a role player, not a go to guy. I dont yet understand why his 3 pt shot isnt falling at a higher clip, though. He just isnt being utilized to his strengths?
On Def, Toppin seems to get caught ball watching, losing his man, loss of focus. (He might be much better on D in a zone??) I believe Washington plays a lot of zone - I wonder how Brooks D looks now - haven't seen them play yet.
Brooks gave us much of the same similar problems last yr, but is obviously excelling in his new home on offense with great numbers this year.
This all seems to lead to another problem- I cant back this up- I haven't taken notes on every game (yeah, I do that too, as if it will make a difference in anything), but it seems Oscar is a one man front line on Def.
I remember Cal saying early season that we don't have to worry about short closeouts because we have plenty of athleticism in Top and Collins and a brick outhouse with Oscar underneath. But against top quality teams, Oscar ends up pulling punches as the fouls add up because he cannot afford to go out, but either way, results in easy baskets for opponent underneath. Oscar had foul trouble in some important games last season, if I remember right. Of course with a steep decline in his backup, teams would likely focus on taking it to O.
Hi screens and PnR defense: this has been baffling for a long time. Great one on one defensive players but bad decisions negate that. Thinking SPU and back to Notre Dame last yr, we look lost against tuned, well oiled offensive "schemes".
Last important thing: I am concerned that our best and only good offense is fast breaks (and I love that style), yet good teams are shutting us down completely. How are they able to do this so effectively?
There was no adjustment any team could make against Pitino teams or Nolan Richardson- they were going to burn you all game long no matter the competition or how much preparation.
However, those teams had depth to the 10th player (and they played #10 even if he was a falloff in quality just to have everyone w fresh legs, while the opponent had 7 players worn out). Cal goes to even shorter rotation in these big games (and in NCAAT), and I've noticed some tired players. Usually good free throw shooters and 3 pt shooters start missing when the legs are gone at end of game - both something we have consistently seen in losses.
Sure, we do look awesome in fast breaks vs. cupcakes, but if fast breaks are the only offense we are going to have, we better be dang good at getting it going vs. high level competition too. Why are we getting forced into half court vs. top comp?
Thanks,
Let's hope we are talking about how well Cal adjusted the offense this time next month!
Judging by social media, forums, and call in shows, people are on the edge of the cliff!
Excellent analysis, as always. Seems many (particularly coaching staff) want to point to a player or players and something they did/didn't do to cause the poor performance, when the only consistency appears to be systemic. Appreciate the videos and explanations. Also love the quote about less certainty. Boy, that sure seems applicable here.
First - the highest quality analysis as always. I will finally make time to subscribe. Your work is worth it.
More people need to be made aware that many of these BB rating sites grade on a curve and are skewed by preseason predictions, apparently not running numerous iterations to adjust team efficiencies and "grades" to correct this problem.
Another problem, if they were truly adjusted for opponent quality, every team's best games would not consistently be against low quality opponents and Gonzaga would not be #1 in everything every year after playing most of their season against D2 level opponents. Of course, the ones that grade on a per game basis with no regard to opponent tell you what your team really did that day. Is that all correct?
I love Toppin but as pointed out, he is a problem in our offense, but he is not a bad player. He is a piece, a role player, not a go to guy. I dont yet understand why his 3 pt shot isnt falling at a higher clip, though. He just isnt being utilized to his strengths?
On Def, Toppin seems to get caught ball watching, losing his man, loss of focus. (He might be much better on D in a zone??) I believe Washington plays a lot of zone - I wonder how Brooks D looks now - haven't seen them play yet.
Brooks gave us much of the same similar problems last yr, but is obviously excelling in his new home on offense with great numbers this year.
This all seems to lead to another problem- I cant back this up- I haven't taken notes on every game (yeah, I do that too, as if it will make a difference in anything), but it seems Oscar is a one man front line on Def.
I remember Cal saying early season that we don't have to worry about short closeouts because we have plenty of athleticism in Top and Collins and a brick outhouse with Oscar underneath. But against top quality teams, Oscar ends up pulling punches as the fouls add up because he cannot afford to go out, but either way, results in easy baskets for opponent underneath. Oscar had foul trouble in some important games last season, if I remember right. Of course with a steep decline in his backup, teams would likely focus on taking it to O.
Hi screens and PnR defense: this has been baffling for a long time. Great one on one defensive players but bad decisions negate that. Thinking SPU and back to Notre Dame last yr, we look lost against tuned, well oiled offensive "schemes".
Last important thing: I am concerned that our best and only good offense is fast breaks (and I love that style), yet good teams are shutting us down completely. How are they able to do this so effectively?
There was no adjustment any team could make against Pitino teams or Nolan Richardson- they were going to burn you all game long no matter the competition or how much preparation.
However, those teams had depth to the 10th player (and they played #10 even if he was a falloff in quality just to have everyone w fresh legs, while the opponent had 7 players worn out). Cal goes to even shorter rotation in these big games (and in NCAAT), and I've noticed some tired players. Usually good free throw shooters and 3 pt shooters start missing when the legs are gone at end of game - both something we have consistently seen in losses.
Sure, we do look awesome in fast breaks vs. cupcakes, but if fast breaks are the only offense we are going to have, we better be dang good at getting it going vs. high level competition too. Why are we getting forced into half court vs. top comp?
Thanks,
Let's hope we are talking about how well Cal adjusted the offense this time next month!
Judging by social media, forums, and call in shows, people are on the edge of the cliff!
Excellent analysis, as always. Seems many (particularly coaching staff) want to point to a player or players and something they did/didn't do to cause the poor performance, when the only consistency appears to be systemic. Appreciate the videos and explanations. Also love the quote about less certainty. Boy, that sure seems applicable here.
Has the winner of the contest for subscribers been notified already?
Oh good call! Yes, I’ll send an email announcing to everyone. Doing it again for UK-UofL too!
Cool!