Sorting out the good and bad for UofL
Encouraging signs on offense from the opener, but one area on defense doomed the Cards....can they improve today?
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As I mentioned in my article earlier this week, the currency of this UofL season is progress and not wins/losses. I know most of the fanbase would be feeling much better if one of the last second shot attempts for the Cards had dropped and they escaped with a win, but that wouldn’t have changed much of anything about their overall performance.
Keeping in mind the theme of “A loss ain’t a loss, it’s a lesson”, I’ll focus this article (and much of this Louisville season) on identifying how Louisville can build from recent games and evaluating how they’re able to sustain positive trends and reduce negative ones. From the first game, there were definitely some encouraging signs regarding the offensive capabilities at the top of the roster but also a clear weakness around defensive effort/focus/conditioning that cost them dearly. Plus, I preview today’s opponent Wright State. Let’s get into it!
A trio of capable scorers
Last season Louisville’s offense was pretty putrid for most of the season. No Card averaged even 10ppg, and the team effective FG% ranked 234th in the nation per KenPom. El Ellis and Sydney Curry flashed some offensive potential, but it was in largely meaningless games where the Cards were blown out. I had major questions as to whether anyone on the current roster could fill the role of lead scorer with anything resembling efficiency.
In the opener against Bellarmine, my questions were pretty much answered. 3 Cardinals showed the willingness and ability to take on a scoring burden and do so fairly efficiently. First, Jae’lyn Withers demonstrated that his scoring in the exhibitions was not a fluke. He took 30% of Louisville’s shots when he was in the game, and posted a stunning 67% effective FG% on that volume. He was excellent in transition, scoring 10 points on 3 FGA and 5FTA, as well in halfcourt, with 7 points on 6 FGA.
El Ellis was also willing to take on a primary scoring role, as he took just under 30% of Louisville’s shots when he was in. He wasn’t as efficient as Withers, with an eFG% of just 47%, but still put up 14 points on 15 FGA and 1 FTA. In a mild surprise, he struggled in transition with just 2 points on 4 FGA and 1 FTA. He was much better in halfcourt offense with 12 points on 11 FGA. Last season, Ellis was rated as Very Good by Synergy in transition, with a 63% effective FG% and scoring about 1.16 points per possession. If he’d stuck with that level of scoring and put up 4 more points in transition, Louisville probably wins against Bellarmine. He should rebound.
One other notable scorer in the Cards’ opener was Mike James. He didn’t take on as much of a scoring burden as the other two as he took a little under 20% of the shots when he was in the game, but he was wildly effective. James had an effective FG% of 81% and scored 16 points on just 8 FGA and 3 FTA. James took more shots at the rim in halfcourt offense (3) than any other Cardinal, showing that he can create efficient offense out of their sets. James was excellent in both transition (8 pts on 3 FGA and 2 FTA) and halfcourt (8 pts on 5 FGA and 1 FTA). I’d expect Louisville to give him a little more focus in halfcourt offense and would like to see his share of FGA increase to the 23% to 25% range over the season.
One area where James stood out above Withers and Ellis was his shot selection. James took all of his shots at the rim or from three, with zero midrange shots. Ellis and Withers did mix in some long twos and tough midrange jumpers off the dribble, and went 0 for 4 on these. By my numbers (available here) the Cards were 1 for 10 on midrange twos….that’s an abject disaster. So, that’s something to work on next time out.
Transition defense cost the Cards
If I had to pick just one thing for Louisville to work on and improve, it’s their effort, focus, and possibly conditioning in transition defense. I can make a very reaonable case that poor transition defense cost the Cards the game against Bellarmine by a fair margin.
The issue wasn’t shots taken in transition. Bellarmine was 3 of 10 on FGA in transition (which I define as the first 10 seconds of a possession), including just 1 for 3 at the rim. Two of the Bellarmine makes were threes, but overall Louisville held the Knights to just 8 points on these 10 transition shots. The issue was what happened in transition when Bellarmine didn’t get credited with a shot.
Bellarmine took 22 free throws against Louisville. By my numbers (again available here), 20 of those free throws came within the first 10 seconds of a possession. The Knights hit 17 of these. Assuming 2 FTA per transition possession, that’s 20 total possessions in transition (10 FGA and 20 FTA) and 25 points scored, and 17 points from 10 transition possessions where Louisville fouled. That’s where the game was lost on defense, in my opinion.
In halfcourt defense, Louisville was largely OK in my view. Bellarmine only hit 6 of 12 shots at the rim in halfcourt offense, so the Cards used their size. Bellarmine took 20 shots away from the rim in halfcourt offense, and happened to hit them at a very high rate. Louisville definitely had some breakdowns that led to open shots, but the Knights still hit at an unsustainable rate. They were 7 for 11 on two point jumpers (64%) and 5 of 9 on threes (55%)…40-45% would be a great mark on these shots for a full season. That’s 9 extra points for Bellarmine that I’d attribute to shooting luck. Louisville did shoot the three well themselves, but if the Cards continue to force teams to take 2/3 of their halfcourt shots away from the rim that should work out much better than it did this game.
Let’s learn about Wright State
The Raiders of Wright State can be thought of as pretty similar to Bellarmine, with a few tweaks. That may send shivers down the spine of Louisville fans who just watched their team lose, but I think it’s a good opportunity for Louisville to address some of the things that went wrong while building on some of their advantages in length and size.
Wright State is rated 202nd per KenPom, so they’re below average and in the same ballpark as Bellarmine. The Raiders don’t have much size, with only a couple 6’9” players and one 6’8” guy. They will likely start 3 guards 6’2” and under. Last season Wright State was poor at defensive rebounding and defending 2 point shots, so Louisville has another opportunity to get their big men involved in the scoring.
Most of the Raiders offense will go through guards Trey Calvin and Amari Davis. Calvin is a dynamo off the dribble, scoring effectively in isolation, pick and roll, and even dribble jumpers from three (he hit 40% last season). Calvin doesn’t put a lot of pressure on the rim in halfcourt offense, so Louisville may be able to force him into chucking up some bad looks if they can stay with him. Davis is not much of an outside shooter (25% career) but can attack the rim and is solid on midrange jumpers.
Wright State had a nice run a few years ago built around big man Loudon Love, but he’s been gone for 2 seasons and their defense has cratered. Louisville should be able to get the shots they want against this team. The key will be the effort & focus on defensive rebounding and transition defense. That will make the difference between a comfortable Cardinal win and another nail-biter to a below average team.