What does Louisville need to show?
The Cards can demonstrate progress, even if the overall results aren't there for a while
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A loss ain't a loss, it's a lesson Appreciate the pain, it's a blessin'
-Jay-Z, “Smile”
This probably isn’t going to be a season where Louisville’s men’s basketball team wins a lot of games. The two exhibition games didn’t exactly get hopes up, with Louisville basically playing even with two mediocre D-2 teams. There aren’t enough capable guards. The bigs struggled to use their physical advantages. Fast break points were non-existent.
That stuff only matters so much, however. The root of the problem with the Chris Mack era wasn’t performance (which was not great), but rather vibes (which were terrible). An inability to either compete for top recruits or develop promising ones, baffling decisions on playing time for younger players, an unwillingness to embrace the fanbase, and LITERALLY TURNING A FRIEND AND SUBORDINATE IN TO THE FEDS meant that there was nothing to cling to besides results. The promise of the Kenny Payne era is, simply, better vibes. A hometown kid, alumnus, NBA draftee, and longtime friend of several program icons is what Louisville needs to cleanse the palate. The patience of the fanbase will probably be tested this season, but Payne is probably the one coach who can get away with that.
In the meantime, the currency of the Louisville basketball program won’t be wins and losses, but progress. This team will need to demonstrate that they:
Have some relative strengths to leverage
Are willing to expend effort in areas where that can make an impact
Can show improvement and avoid going through the motions
How is that going to show up, both against Bellarmine and over the course of the season? I have a few ideas about that.
Beginning the journey with a hometown foe
A lot of major college programs don’t like playing small programs in their same area because there’s just not much to gain. You’re expected to win, and if you don’t it becomes a topic of conversation until you avenge the loss. Kudos are due to Louisville for scheduling Bellarmine. I honestly don’t know how this is going to go, and based on the exhibition games I think Bellarmine will at least push the Cards to the end. Louisville may lose this game, but the team and fanbase need to be able to take away a lesson, not a loss. The lesson will essentially be this: what is the starting point from which we measure progress? I’ll be watching for three things:
How do the Cards turn their length into an advantage?
Over the summer I wrote about how length at the wing positions tends to show up statistically. The biggest takeaway for me was that Louisville should be able to be competent at defensive rebounding, limiting opponent 2pt FG%, and avoiding fouling. Bellarmine is a great test case as they don’t have a lot of height, didn’t draw fouls last season, and don’t take a ton of shots at the rim.
How do the Cards acquit themselves in areas where effort is a big factor?
Rebounding again is a factor here. Defensive rebounding is heavily influenced by effort, especially effort fron guards and wings. Limiting opponent shots around the rim also requires consistent effort and focus on defense. Limiting the frequency of opponent transition shots is also a sign of effort more than sheer skill. Can the Cards make a decent showing in these areas to maintain respectability?
What areas stick out as major weaknesses?
In that same article about wing length, I noted that longer teams tend to commit more turnovers and force fewer turnovers. Nothing from the exhibition games changed my mind on this. I’m expecting some sloppy turnover-filled games for the first few weeks, but will also be interested to see what else shows up as a weakness.
Bellarmine is an interesting team on offense. They shot a pretty heavy volume of threes, and nearly every player on their roster has the green light, but they didn’t shoot particularly well. They are primarily a catch-and-shoot team, especially using pick-and-pop action, so Louisville will need to communicate on defense. Bellarmine creates a LOT of unguarded jump shots with their actions. The Knights are a pretty picky team when it comes to shooting around the rim; they ranked 341st in percent of shots taken there but 9th in FG% there (per hoop-math.com). They tend to look for transition opportunities or cuts to the basket, and won’t take challenged shots at the rim unless they have to….they’d rather kick it out for an open three. Bellarmine does take a high volume of runners, floaters, and hook shots around the paint, and they hit these at a high rate. These are usually categorized as “midrange shots”, but Bellarmine runs a lot of action to get good opportunities on these; they had the highest FG% on “midrange shots” in the country per hoop-math.com. The Knights don’t take almost any long twos, however.
I would consider it a good defensive showing from Louisville if they can force Bellarmine out of some of the things they like to do. That could involve the Knights taking more long jumpers than they prefer to, forcing them to take more contested shots at the rim rather than probing for an open jumper, or jumping passing lanes to thwart ball movement.
I have no idea what to expect from Louisville on offense. Jae’lyn Withers seems to have rediscovered his scoring pop, and El Ellis can get shots up, but very little of Louisville’s offense seems to be coming out of a favorable scheme or the natural advantage of size. Incredibly, no Cardinal hit 50% of their 2 point attempts across the 2 exhibition games; it would be a nice start to see who can finish inside the arc. Bellarmine was 353rd in D-1 in opponent 2pt Fg%, so if Louisville can’t do it this game it’s going to be an uphill battle.
Beyond the Bellarmine game, I’m interested to see how Kenny Payne’s words and actions as a coach foster progress. Does he make rotation and lineup choices that reward progress? Does he identify meaningful areas of weakness and look to address them? Do younger players show improvement and get opportunities to make mistakes? And if they make mistakes, does it seem like those are reocgnized and turned into teachable moments? We probably won’t see much of the dialogue around these areas, but we should be able to see some of the results. I’m very interested to watch.