More wrinkles for UK's offense, and GLOBL Jam topics
Another program has creative offensive ideas UK could borrow, plus I list some things to watch for in the GLOBL Jam games
In late April, I wrote about some creative ideas Utah Valley used last season on offense to have their greatest success in 20 years at the D-1 level:
A lot of Kentucky fans might feel insulted at the idea that their program needs to borrow ideas from a program like Utah Valley to have more success on offense. I would suspect that those fans aren’t likely to find their way to reading my newsletter on purpose, so I’m going to one-up myself with something that might drive them absolutely bonkers. I believe Kentucky could also do well to borrow from a program with the following resume over the last 20 years:
4 NCAA tournament bids
Zero NCAA tournament wins
1 season finished in KenPom top 100
That program is UC Santa Barbara (the Gauchos, it turns out), and they have managed to put together solid offenses despite playing in a mid-major conference, getting few offensives rebounds, and almost never shooting threes. What they do and how they do it could be useful for Kentucky to emulate. Plus, I’ll offer up some key things to watch during UK’s Canadian competition this week.
Building a good offense inside the arc
The 2022-23 UCSB Gauchos went 27-8, winning the Big West and losing as a #14 seed to Baylor in their NCAA Tournament opener. The Gauchos were an offense-first team, ranking 83rd in KenPom in offense but 167th in defense. Unlike most mid-major teams with strong offenses, they did very little work outside the arc (339th in 3pt frequency). They also were poor at offensive rebounding (249th), and good but not great at avoiding turnovers (90th) and drawing free throws (85th). Where they stood out is in hitting shots (22nd in effective FG%), particulrly at the rim (27th, and 8th the year prior).
Most of the time when a mid-major team excels at the rim, it’s due to a big man…but that’s not the case here. The players who took the most shots at the rim were Ajay Mitchell and Josh Pierre-Louis, both about 6’5” and 190 pounds. It wasn’t just transition, either. They led the team in FGA at the rim in halfcourt offense, and coverted at 64%. As a team UCSB took 39% of their shots at the rim in halfcourt offense and hit over 63%. For reference, UK took under 33% of their halfcourt offense shots at the rim and hit just under 63%. It’s not a perfect comparison, but both teams did play Duquesne last season:
Kentucky took 29% of their shots at the rim and hit 50%
UCSB took 56% of their shots at the rim and hit 65%
So, UCSB’s offense is powered by guards who get to the rim and finish. What are the Gauhcos doing on offense to enable this?
Spacing, but not like you think
When basketball fans hear about spacing, they think of three point shooting. UCSB does space the floor out, but not in search of threes. As I mentioned earlier UCSB doesn’t take many threes, but they do hit about 35% on them, so it’s not something opponent can ignore. UCSB’s main weapon is spacing the floor to create driving lanes for their guards.
You can find some of their games on Youtube just to see how they do this; here’s one I watched from the Big West Tournament: UCSB vs UC Riverside. The Gauchos have some core principles you can see in action:
3-4 players outside the 3 point line on offense at almost all times
Frequent off-ball movement early in the shot clock to get defense moving
Nobody around the lane on the strong side unless they are posting up a mismatch
Frequent handoffs and screens, with the screener cutting hard to the basket if their defender hedges out
Drivers are looking to draw a second defender and pass to the man they left; if not, they drive to the basket
There’s a lot of movement, a lot of aggressive forays, and a lot of repeated attempts if the first drive fails. The ideas aren’t too different from the dribble-drive offense, but married with principles designed to create spacing and movement. Players rarely begin their drive from a standstill against a set defense, and there’s almost never an offensive player in the way of a potential driving lane.
Synergy’s play type charting (while not perfect) shows the net result of this. UCSB’s shots come off spot-ups (although a lot of two pointers from attacking closeouts qualify), pick and roll, and cuts. Only 5% are categorizes as isolation, and another 5% as post-ups. Most of what UCSB tries to do on offense involves forcing the defense to move, and then attacking gaps when they do.
This approach isn’t perfect. The Gauchos have a lot more success against man defense (91st percentile) than zone (57th), where forcing rotations isn’t as simple. UCSB also struggles more at the end of the shot clock (53rd percentile in the final 4 seconds) when they don’t have the luxury of probing in the space they’ve created. However, with Kentucky’s roster composition skewing more towards perimeter creators than post destroyers, it’s worth exploring how Kentucky could generate favorable situations for their dynamic guards by getting away from camping out in the lane. Imagine what this kind of system could do when piloted by a future NBA guard like Dajuan Wagner, or a proven scorer like Antonio Reeves?
What I’ll be watching in our first glimpse of these Cats
Kentucky is in Toronto this week playing in the GLOBL JAM, and two questions are on everyone mind. Why all capital letters? What happened to the A in “global”?
In non-titular topics, there’s a lot of uncertainty around this edition of the Wildcats. I honestly don’t know how useful these games will be in telling us about this Kentucky team, but here are some indicators I’ll watch for.
On Offense:
Will UK adjust their offensive strategy to depend less on midrange jumpers? I’d like to see over half of UK’s 2 pointers taken at or around the rim.
Will Reeves’ role grow from last season? Last season he was cast as a corner spot-up shooter in halfcourt offense until injuries led Cal to put the ball in his hands.
Can the freshmen make plays for others? One of the biggest adjustments when moving up a level is learning how to put teammates in position to score. Cason Wallace struggled early with that before settling down. Will any of this year’s freshmen be especially gifted in this area?
Can UK rebound on offense without Oscar? Calipari’s teams are built on creating shot volume, largely through offensive rebounds.
On Defense:
Can UK defend the rim this season? Last year UK struggled there, but Ugonna Onyenso was the exception. Can he continue to stand out defensively with more playing time?
Can Calipari convince Tre Mitchell to defend? Mitchell had some bad defensive tape from last season, he needs to show he can be better than that.
Who besides Onyenso can defend? Cason Wallace was the perimeter guy last season, and freshmen usually struggle. Maybe Justin Edwards or a veteran Antonio Reeves have the effort and fundamentals.
Miscellaneous:
Which bench players look useful? Adou Thiero is getting some hype, but Calipari barely played him last season. Are Burks and Hart able to contribute? Reed Sheppard?
How bad do things get up front when Onyenso sits? Without Onyenso or Bradshaw, Kentucky is really stretching…especially on defense.
Is DJ Wagner capable of dominating? Keyontae George used this stage as a launching pad last season for Baylor…can Wagner do something similar?
Are the opponents any good? Baylor went 1-4 last season, but I thought UK might get challenged by Carleton in the Bahamas last season too.
Hey, it’s basketball season again (sort of)! Enjoy the games.