How Kentucky can adjust their offense: Part 1
I look at some wrinkles UK could adopt to get the most out of their talent
Kentucky’s offense has been quite good the past 2 seasons, ranking 17th per KenPom in 2023 and 5th the year prior. It would be fair to think that’s good enough for a top college basketball team, and if that’s your view then you might want to skip this article. Before you do that, let me point out a few programs and their recent rankings in offense, again from KenPom:
Gonzaga: 1, 1, 1, 3 and 1 from 2019-2023
Baylor: 2, 8 and 2 from 2021-2023
Iowa: 5, 3, 4 and 4 from 2020-23
Each NCAA champ since 2015: 3, 3, 9, 1, 2, 2, 6, 3
It is quite possible for top programs to consistently rank in the top 5-10 in offense despite roster turnover, and recent evidence suggests it is highly likely that the eventual champion will be absolutely elite on offense. In fact, since 2004 only 2 NCAA champions were 10th or worse in offensive effiicency (UConn 2011 and 2014), while 9 ranked 10th or worse in defensive efficiency.
Kentucky’s 5th place finish in 2022 was their lone top-10 finish since 2016. That was built on the strength of two areas: offensive rebounding and scoring at the rim. The Wildcats were 4th in offensive rebounding rate that season and 1st in FG% at the rim; other than doing a good job of avoiding turnovers, UK wasn’t any better than average in any area of offense. That’s been the formula for UK to have elite offenses under Calipari:
In 2012 UK was 2nd in offense (20th in off reb %, 3rd in FG% at the rim per hoop-math.com)
In 2015 UK was 6th in offense (8th in off reb %, 4th in FG% at the rim)
In 2016 UK was 5th in offense (12th in off reb %, 14th in FG% at the rim)
2011 was a bit of an odd year as UK was 9th in 3pt% and 10th in avoiding turnovers, and hoop-math doesn’t have data on FG% at the rim for that season….but overall, Calipari has an idea of what he wants his offenses to do well.
Let’s then focus on these twin goals of owning the offensive glass and finishing at the rim effectively. How likely is it that Kentucky will be elite at offensive rebounding again? If they aren’t, what can Kentucky do to improve their scoring at the rim? The first part will be free for everyone, while the second part will be exclusive to paying subscribers.
Offensive rebounding
Contrary to what some people may assume, offensive rebounding didn’t begin at Kentucky with Oscar Tshiebwe’s arrival…although he may have perfected it. UK was in the top 10 in offensive rebound rate in 2010, 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2019 in addition to Tshiebwe’s 2 years (so far?) on campus. While “have Oscar Tshiebwe” is a pretty likely way to be elite in this area, it’s clear that it’s not the only answer. That’s also not entirely within Kentucky’s control…so what can they do if Tshiebwe isn’t on the team?
Have a lot of height: The 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2018 teams were in the top 4 in D-1 in effective height, per KenPom. 2019 was a bit smaller at 34th. Kentucky has been much smaller the past 2 seasons (188th and 88th), but Tshiebwe solves a lot.
Have at least 1 tall player focus on rebounding and not shooting: In 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2019 UK had at least 1 frontcourt regular who took a below-average portion of shots (<20%) but was an excellent offensive rebounder. Alex Poythress, Willie Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson, Wenyen Gabriel, Nick Richards and Reid Travis all fit this description. It’s a lot easier to crash the boards when you weren’t the one who shot. For example, last season UK grabbed 33% of the offensive rebounds when Oscar Tshiebwe shot and 41% when he didn’t. Tshiebwe only took about 21% of UK’s shots when in the game (excluding shots after offensive rebounds), so he didn’t take on a heavy shooting load.
As far as #1 goes, UK will probably check that box next season with 7-footer Aaron Bradshaw spending a lot of time at power foward and 6’7” Justin Edwards logging considerable time at small forward.
In regards to #2, that gets a bit trickier. If Tshiebwe is back, UK will be elite at offensive rebounding in almost any situation…but if he’s not, how UK fills that spot will determine a lot. If the center minutes are manned by Ugonna Onyenso and Lance Ware, then those two are prime candidates to focus on rebounding at the expense of shooting. But what if Hunter Dickinson is UK’s center?
In a recent article I shared my thoughts on how Dickinson fits, and I think UK will have some issues on the offensive glass if he’s their big man. Dickinson hasn’t been a very good offensive rebounder in the past, first of all. The real issue is that he is a horrible fit with point #2 above. Dickinson shoots A LOT. He consistently took 25-28% of Michigan’s shots in his 3 years there. He does bring some outside shooting ability, but that pulls hims farther away from the basket and makes it even harder for him to get offensive rebounds. If Dickinson joins Kentucky, Aaron Bradshaw will likely have to take on the offensive rebounding load and sacrifice shots. That could work, but given Bradshaw’s reputation as an athletic and skilled big with a thin frame I don’t know that he’s best suited to be a rebounding specialist.
Quite frankly, I think Kentucky will take a bit of a step back in offensive rebounding if Dickinson is their big man. Instead of top 5, maybe they are 20th or so. That’s where the 2012 UK team ranked in that stat, and they managed to have the 2nd best offense in the country thanks to being 3rd in the nation in FG% at the rim. So, how can UK get better at finishing?
For paid subscribers, I’ll share some offensive concepts borrowed from Utah Valley, a WAC school who made the semifinals of the NIT this season. Subscribe to read more!
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