UK portal update: is Hunter Dickinson what the Wildcats need?
Evaluating 6 names UK has been connected to
It’s PORTAL SZN y’all. Kentucky has done impressive work in identifying and landing key contributors in recent years, and will probably need to do so again. Kyle Tucker recently wrote at The Athletic recapping the likely stay/go decisions and listing a few names of portal entrants who have been contacted by Kentucky. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’ll offer my evaluation of each of these players using some advanced stats info to break down what they might contribute as Wildcats. Many thanks to Bart Torvik’s Transfer Portal page, which is an invaluable resource. The first player eval will be free to everyone, with the rest for paying subscribers. If you want to keep reading, you can subscribe for 1 year for only $19.50…..
I’ll start with a big name who announced his transfer intentions late last week and caused much of BBN to go
Hunter Dickinson, 7’1” C (Michigan Wolverines)
Click above for Dickinson’s Basketball Reference page
If he follows through and transfers, Dickinson will become the first men’s college basketball player to transfer after having previously been named to an AP All-American team. That’s big news in and of itself. For Kentucky fans, the prospect of adding Hunter Dickinson to replace Oscar Tshiebwe seems like a no-brainer.
Dickinson’s a 3x all-Big Ten player and one of the multitude of talented bigs in college basketball this season. His stats aren’t terribly dissimilar from Oscar Tshiebwe’s in recent seasons. Dickinson isn’t the rebounder Tshiebwe was, especially offensively, but he’s a little better of a shot blocker and has shown the ability to step out and hit threes. He’s been a terrific finisher around the rim (68% FG% there last season), and is a good free throw shooter (75% for his career). In a vacuum, he’s a talented basketball player who would likely be the top scoring option for the Wildcats next season. However, I don’t love the fit of Dickinson with UK.
Dickinson takes a huge share of the offense. Per KenPom, Dickinson has taken about 28% of Michigan’s shots each of the last 2 seasons. Tshiebwe took less than 22% for UK, and the only bigs who have shot as often for UK as Dickinson were Terrence Jones in 2011 and Demarcus Cousins in 2010. With several talented recruits coming in for UK, Dickinson simply would not be getting anywhere near the shot volume he’s used to. While that’s an adjustment he may be willing to make, it’s not clear to me that Dickinson brings a lot of value outside of his scoring. He’s never ranked in the top 100 in either defensive or offensive rebound rate, so he’s a solid but not elite rebounder. Last season, Michigan’s defense at the rim was not outstanding; they ranked 224th in opponent FG% at the rim…1 spot ahead of Kentucky. Michigan also allowed a higher portion of shots to be taken at the rim than the Wildcats. Given that defense at the rim was a weakness for UK, it doesn’t seem like Dickinson would help in that area at all. I’m also concerned with Dickinson’s presence in the lane clogging things up for the more dynamic ballhandlers UK will have. While Dickinson did shoot threes last season, he also was used in post-ups 287 times…110 more than Oscar Tshiebwe! Dickinson (like Tshiebwe) wasn’t a very good passer when double-teamed on post-ups.
Given Kentucky’s weaknesses this season and the talent coming in next season, a center whose primary value is as the #1 scorer on offense doesn’t seem to meet the needs. If Kentucky wants to continue to run a post-centric offense and cover up for defensive limitations, they are free to do so, but I don’t think the addition of Dickinson is going to get UK back to where they want to be.
Paying subscribers can read my evaluations of TJ Bamba, Olivier Nkamhoua, Dalton Knecht, Kel’el Ware, and Graham Ike…
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