Before the college basketball season started I wrote about some key numbers to watch for Kentucky. I set an over/under and predicted which way it would fall. Since I got to make these up I suppose I could have just made them as easy to predict as possible, but I didn’t think of that. I also didn’t think to go back and edit them during the season so I could appear correct. So, now I get to revisit them and see how honestly right or wrong I was.
This was definitely an odd season for Kentucky, with high expectations that failed to be met in non-conference and a conference run marked by inconsistency. With that in mind, please be gentle in your evaluation of how bad any of my predictions were! I’ll share the first one free for everybody, and paid subscribers can view the rest.
#1 Jacob Toppin points per game: Over/under 11.0ppg
What I said then:
“Toppin is likely to get about 25 minutes per game at power forward”
“Toppin’s issue has been a lack of shot volume”
“Toppin will likely be much improved offensively, [but lack] the combo of shots and minutes”
“Under, but just a bit”
What happened: Toppin blew past my minutes expectation, averging over 31mpg. His points per 40 minutes were up a bit from prior years as he heavily increased the percentage of shots he took, but shot a bit worse. He ended up averaging 12.4ppg, 3rd on the team.
How wrong was I? My assessment was pretty solid, as Toppin would’ve fallen short had he only played 27mpg or so like I expected. Kentucky really didn’t have anyone else who they seemed to trust at power forward, and Toppin was able to correct his early-season struggles and become a key contributor down the stretch. I’ll say I was only 27% wrong on this one, just making up a number.
For paid subscribers, see what else I predicted and my excuses as to why I was wrong…
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