A faint pounding begins in the distance, first as a daydream but then as an unmistakable and approaching reality. It’s rhythmic and quick, too quick to be a drummer but too rhythmic to be anything but on purpose. It feels like it’s approaching but never threatening, coming to usher you somewhere you want to be. It mimics a heartbeat but has too much improvisation for that. It’s the sound we’ve been waiting months for….basketball.
The season is almost here!
When basketball season draws near my thoughts begin to crystallize around what might happen this season, and why. To scratch this itch, I start thinking about key stats that will help this season stand out from the one before it for the Kentucky Wildcats. Basketball is, at its core, a game about supremacy through numbers. The object is literally to put up more numbers than your opponent, and my goal is to understand the small slices of the game that can make a difference in doing just that.
My favorite preseason tradition is setting an over/under line on some key stats, and taking a position on where Kentucky might land this season. In the past I’ve looked pretty silly doing this, and predictions are tough. This season, I’m going to identify a few key stats, make the case for over & under a meaningful line, then I’ll take a position on each based purely on vibes. The goal isn’t to look smart in predicting the future, but rather to make the case for why a few stats are extra meaningful this season in shaping the trajectory of the Kentucky Wildcats. Ready? Let’s get into it!
Signs of individual development
One area where John Calipari is underappreciated is in developing players who return to school. Players like Immanuel Quickley, PJ Washington, Nick Richards, and Willie Cauley-Stein refined their games and developed real strengths that got them drafted into the NBA after shaky early returns. I’ll be watching to see how a couple UK returnees grow this season….
Jacob Toppin points per game: Over/under 11.0ppg
The case for over: Toppin is likely to get about 25 minutes per game at power forward this season, about what Keion Brooks averaged each of the last 2 season. Brooks put up 10.3 and 10.8ppg despite hitting just 22% from three. Toppin seemed to discover a three point shot in the Bahamas this season, giving him a weapon Brooks never had. Toppin also has drawn free throws at a higher rate than Brooks did at UK, while hitting 75-78%.
The case for under: Toppin scored 14 pts per 40 minutes last year, and at 25 mpg that puts him at about 9ppg. Toppin’s issue has been a lack of shot volume as he’s taken about 16% of UK shots when he’s in the game…Brooks was over 22% last season. UK has only had 3 forwards who scored around 11ppg in less than 27mpg (Cousins in 2010, Poythress in 2013, and Brooks last season). Toppin isn’t Boogie, and the 2013 team was so bad that they were desperate for scoring. Toppin needs to be willing and able to shoot, which he hasn’t been in his 2 previous seasons.
The vibes say….Under, but just a bit. Kentucky’s frontcourt depth might keep Toppin from getting over 25mpg unless there are injuries, and Calipari offenses tend to give the guards more leeway than forwards in creating shots. Toppin will likely be much improved offensively, but probably won’t have the combo of shots and minutes to put up 11ppg.
Oscar Tshiebwe 3 point attempts: Over/under 25
The case for over: Calipari says Oscar came back to expand his game for the NBA Draft, and threes are the most likely area for him to explore. He seemed to have a green light in the Bahamas despite going oh-fer, and UK has enough winnable games early on that he can venture to the perimeter without much consequence. Reid Travis and Olivier Sarr both took over 25 3PA despite nominally being centers, as did Nate Sestina off the bench,
The case for under: I wrote quite a bit about this earlier this offseason, and there’s almost no track record of big men going from zero 3pt volume to meaningful 3pt volume as a junior or senior. UK’s offense last season was elite almost entirely due to offensive rebounding and scoring at the rim, so taking the player who is best at that and putting him 22 feet away seems odd. If Oscar goes 0-10 from three in the first few weeks, is there going to be enough patience for him to keep firing away?
The vibes say….Under. Oscar isn’t getting drafted for his shooting ability, and after some early dalliances I expect the three point experiment quietly fades away by December.
Team defensive improvement
Kentucky hasn’t had a top-30 defense per KenPom’s efficiency metrics since 2019, but this season the Wildcats may have some pieces to get back to typical Calipari-level defense. Here are a couple areas where I expect some improvement…
Ranking in opponent turnover rate: Over/under 150th
The case for over (better than 150th): Kentucky was 129th in steal rate last season, the 2nd best ranking they’ve had under Calipari. UK doesn’t usually create a lot of turnovers, but Oscar Tshiebwe and Sahvir Wheeler posted strong rates and Cason Wallace may be the most quick-handed guard Cal has had at UK. While Jacob Toppin didn’t collect many steals himself, players he was guarding turned the ball over at very high rates due to his ability to pester ballhandlers…and he’s in line for more minutes this season.
The case for under (worse than 150th): Calipari teams don’t create turnovers at UK, as they’ve been better than 150th just twice in 13 seasons. Last year UK was 229th, as their low rate of forcing deadball turnovers (307th) negated their relative proficiency at steals. Kentucky prefers to play solid positional defense and force tough shots, then go rebound them.
The vibes say: Over (better than 150th). Deadball turnover rates are more random than steal rates, and UK may start 3 opportunistic thieves in Tshiebwe, Wheeler, and Wallace. They definitely looked aggressive in jumping passing lanes in the Bahamas.
Ranking in block rate: Over/under 30th
The case for over (better than 30th): Calipari has spoken about shotblocking as an area he’d like to see improvement. The Cats have 2 elite leapers up front in Toppin and Collins, plus other athletic marvels in Wallace and Livingston. UK has been worse than 30th only twice (32nd in 2017, 69th last season). Collins will likely double his 200 minutes played and 20 blocked shots from last season which alone would drag Kentucky close to the top 30.
The case for under (worse than 30th): Last season was Cal’s worst shot-blocking team, and it’s not clear where minutes will come from for better shot blockers unless they play 2 bigs together much. For all his athleticism, Toppin’s block rate has been almost identical to Brooks’ at UK. UK has started 6’9” centers 3 times under Cal (like they will this year) and ranked 32nd (2017), 22nd (2019) and 69th (2022) in block rate.
The vibes say…. Over (better than 30th). Toppin might accidentally block a few with his forehead. I think they’ll get around 25th or so with some focus from Cal on it.
Maintaining an elite offense
Kentucky’s offense last season ranked 5th, and was even better than that before late season injuries took their toll. I’ll admit I didn’t see it coming; can the Cats continue to score at an elite rate?
Offensive efficiency rank per Kenpom: Over/under 5th
The case for over (better than 5th): Kentucky basically did 2 things at an incredibly high level: score at the rim (1st nationally in FG% there) and get offensive rebounds (4th). The chief reason for those was Oscar Tshiebwe, who is back and seems likely to still be very good. Oscar commands attention from interior defenders who don’t want to leave him free to get rebounds, which allows teammates more space to score inside. UK is also adding 2 potential 3 point marksmen in CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves to offset the loss of Kellan Grady.
The case for under (worse than 5th): There isn’t much room to improve from 5th. Last season UK was the rare elite offense who didn’t draw free throws or hit threes, and nobody on the roster is a likely candidate to draw many more free throws than they did (Oscar already led the team and isn’t quite as good at drawing them as people think). A sneaky part of UK’s offensive success was a pretty good season hitting midrange shots, and the drivers of that (Keion Brooks and TyTy Washington) are gone. What if UK starts playing 2 bigs again and loses their spacing?
The vibes say….I’m scared that it’ll be under, but I’ll say over. This really depends on Wallace being a dynamic scorer off the dribble and guys like Toppin and Livingston being respectable from deep, but Oscar is such a weapon that I feel like it will work out. An X Factor is Antonio Reeves, who was quietly elite as an isolation and pick-and-roll scorer who could thrive if given some reponsibility as an offensive creator.
I’m fascinated to see how Kentucky changes in small but meaningful ways from last season. I think the players who are in line to be key role players (Toppin, Reeves, Wallace) each have the ability to be a star, and UK probably only needs 1 of them to take that leap in order for them to be a title contender. I’m sure plenty of things will go differently than I expect, but the general vibes are trending positive for the Wildcats this season. Add your thoughts in the comments around these or othr key stats you’ll be watching!