Evaluating Louisville's latest transfer portal targets
Some new names have popped onto the radar. What might they add?
It was the common refrain through the painful last couple months of the Louisville basketball season: the Cards need to crush it in the transfer portal. The roster needs to be rebuilt after several departures, and while the pleasant surprise of landing two highly toted freshmen helps quite a bit, the Cards need to add some experience and ballhandling. Skyy Clark was a nice addition but it’s unlikely he’s a gamechanger by himself, given his modest production at Illinois in less than half a season.
In my last article, I evaluated a few names linked to the Cards early on: Dayvion McKnight, Sean Conway, and Khalif Battle. I don’t think any of those names dramatically change things, but they all add functional high-end role players. This week I’ll evaluate a few more names: Keyon Menifield, Reese Dixon-Waters, and Caleb Love. Additionally, I’ll throw out a couple names that Louisville hasn’t been connected to but who I had identified during the season as intriguing portal candidates. As always, much thanks to Gabe Duverge and his unofficial UofL portal tracker as well as Bart Torvik’s Transfer Portal Finder.
Free subscribers will be able to read my first evaluation (Menifield), but the rest is for paying subscribers only. Jump on in by June 1st and get a 1 year subscription for only $19.50!
Keyon Menifield, 6’1” G (Washington Huskies)
(click link for BBall Reference stats)
Menifield was a bit of a surprise for Washington, making the Pac-12 All Freshman team despite having a fairly limited profile as a recruit. He was the #15 player out of Michigan in 2021 and attended a prep school in Arizona for a year before decamping to Washington. He moved into the starting lineup for good on Dec 30, although the Huskies weren’t particularly good before or after he commanded a starting spot (#107 in KenPom). Menifield has a reputation as a creative, playmaking point guard, and a near 2:1 assist-turnover ratio shows he’s got some ability there. Bart Torvik’s player comps link him to some notable names, with TCU’s Mike Miles being his most similar freshman year comp. Menifield wasn’t a particularly efficient scorer, and struggled to finish at the rim (under 52% FG% there) while not lighting it up from deep (33%). Menifield also didn’t draw free throws at a very high rate, either. The good news is that these are areas where he can improve as he gets more experience. Miles evolved into a highly efficient scorer by his junior year and a bonafide menace drawing fouls. Menifield is also the only high major freshman in the portal who notched a steal on 2% of his possessions played (actually 2.3%) so he’s already flashed some athleticism and basketball instincts.
Menifield is a reasonable facsimile of what El Ellis brought to the team last year in terms of quickness, but has more upside as a playmaker and scorer given his 3 years of eligibility. He’s not likely going to be quite ready to be the alpha scorer on a vastly improved Louisville team, but he can fill a playmaking void and possesses future All-ACC upside.
Paying subscribers get access to the rest of this article, with evaluations on Reese Dixon-Waters and Caleb Love, plus two more names that should be on the Cards’ radar…
Reese Dixon-Waters, 6’5” G (USC Trojans)
Dixon-Waters fits the archetype of players that can really benefit from the transfer portal. He was a highly regarded recruit (#40 in class of 2021) but enrolled early at USC and hasn’t really found his ideal fit there. He’s had a reputation as an above-average athlete, and that jives with his 65% Fg% at the rim last season. He’s also had flashes of strong shooting (46% from 3 in 2021-22) although had a poor shooting season in 2022-23 (30%). He started the first 7 games as a sophomore, but was moved to the bench after having turnover issues. He struggled as a spot-up shooter, but did show some potential shooting off movement (18-27 off screens or handoffs). Dixon-Waters was rated by Synergy in the 78th percentile as a defender, using his length and quickness to contest shooters.
The biggest issue is that Dixon-Waters hasn’t really thrived in any clear role yet. He had 33 assists vs 55 turnovers last season, and USC didn’t trust him as a lead ballhandler. His shooting has been very streaky, but given that he’s hit 81% of his free throws in college I think there’s something there. If he lands with a team where he can build some confidence and play through mistakes, I think he can be a high-level 3-and-D college wing. He doesn’t address UofL’s need for a ballhandler and I’m not sure how he fits in with Clark, James, and Flowers on the wing, but he brings a defensive dimension those players don’t. If UofL had a high-scoring lead guard, Dixon-Waters would be a great fit. As it is, I don’t know this is the right landing spot for him.
Caleb Love, 6’4” G (North Carolina)
Oh boy, this guy. On the one hand, he was the #13 recruit in his high school class and was a huge part of the 2022 runners-up. On the other hand, most comprehensive advanced stats grade him as a slightly-above-average player who shoots a TON. He’s never put up an assist-turnover ratio more than 1.5:1, so he’s not bringing much effective playmaking for others. The bright spot of his offensive career was his 36% 3pt FG% as a sophomore; this was driven by 41% on catch and shoot threes. Unfortunately, Love takes more pull-up threes than catch-and-shoot ones, and is sub-30% on those. He’s never hit 55% at the rim in any year, although he at least showed decent touch on floaters this season (42%). Love can hit free throws (82%) but he doesn’t draw them at a high rate given his tendency for pull-up jumpers. Love’s steal rate has been sub-2% for the last 2 seasons, which is below what you’d expect for a talented guard with good size for his position.
Love got moved off the ball to a secondary playmaking role at UNC, and other than the 6 NCAA Tournament games in his sophomore year it’s tough to say Love had a real positive impact on UNC winning games. Louisville just spent a season with a turnover-prone ballhandler shouldering a massive offensive burden despite inefficient shooting; I don’t know that repeating that is the best path. At the same time, the worst UNC team Love played for was ranked #43 in KenPom, and he was the backcourt engine the whole time. Love can be the absolute star for Louisville next season, and not a lot of other programs he’s considering can offer that. Love has been an alpha scorer on a competitive ACC team, and Louisville isn’t likely to have anyone else who has proven that. I don’t know how seriously Love is considering Louisville, but the coaching staff has to decide whether the chance at relieving public pressure by landing a name player who probably raises the floor for next year is the priority. The alternative is finding players who are higher upside swings (like Menifield) but who might not be ready to turn things around immediately.
Among these three players, I probably prefer Menifield the most. I think he can grow into a high-level ACC guard by his junior year. I think a core of Menifield/Evans/Clark (and maybe a 2nd year of Flowers) has real promise to grow into something Louisville fans can be proud of. However, adding Caleb Love probably gets this team out of the ACC cellar quicker. I don’t know that Love helps the rest of the roster grow all that much, and if Louisville really wants to build a culture and rebuild a program they need Flowers, Evans, and other additions to blossom.
In addition to these players, there are two names that hit the portal who I wrote about earlier this season. In January, I wrote about guards who could be possible transfer targets. One name I mentioned was Auburn’s Chance Westry:
Westry’s stats this season are ugly, when there are any to speak of. He’s 12-38 from the field including 0-14 from three. He does have 11 assists and 8 steals to just 9 turnovers, but that’s about the end of the bright spots. His stats from his senior year of high school are much more promising, however. He averaged 14 ppg, hit 8-15 from 3, posted a 2.3 assist:to ratio, and racked up 1.3 steals per game. He’s got the length and playmaking skill that, theoretically, should fit in with what Kenny Payne wants to do.
Westry basically didn’t play for Auburn this year, but he’s a high-upside guy who brings (theoretical) positional versatility. I think of him as similar to Dixon-Waters, but a better fit on Louisville’s roster given his potential as a ballhandler.
In February, I identified some bigs who could fit for Louisville if they decided to transfer. My “home run” was Micah Handlogten, a 7’1” freshman center at Marshall. Lo and behold, he’s entered the portal. The need for a big man has lessened given the addition of Dennis Evans, but as UConn is showing it’s not a bad thing to have two terrific defensive centers. Here’s what I said about Handlogten:
Here’s the entire list of players who rebound 15% of their team’s misses, 25% of opponent misses, and block at least 9% of opponent 2 pointers this season in at least 20 minutes per game:
1. Micah Handlogten
That’s it. If you go back over the last 5 season, you add Udoka Azubuike in 2020 when he was an All-American.
Marshall has a solid team this year and may get to the NCAAs out of the Sun Belt, but Handlogten could stand to get more exposure. The best team Marshall has played this season is Southern Miss (87th per KenPom), and Handlogten put up 17 points, 16 rebounds and 2 blocks. This is the kind of big man who could be the key to major improvement next season.
Handlogten did dip to 14% offensive rebound rate and 8.7% block rate, but the point is: he’s a spectacular rebounder and rim protector. Louisville wouldn’t be able to play Evans and Handlogten together, but with both of them they’d upgrade their defense immediately. It’s a complete longshot for Louisville to get involved with him, but whatever program lands Handlogten is getting a major difference maker.