Will Kentucky use the transfer portal again?
The Wildcats have landed several impact transfers. Can they bolster the incoming class with veterans?
Kentucky has been Newcomer U lately. While the Wildcats have always relied on elite freshmen under John Calipari, they’ve also made good use of the transfer portal to bring in impact players from other programs. Over the past 3 seasons 2 of UK’s top 3 scorers each season has been a transfer. While technically Oscar Tshiebwe and Jacob Toppin weren’t newcomers in 2022-23, the point stands that UK is now mining two different sources to bring in their top players and has a pretty solid hit rate.
Over the past 5 years, here are the transfers UK has brought in and their stats at UK:
Reid Travis (11.2 ppg, 7.2rpg)
Nate Sestina (5.8ppg, 3.8rpg)
Davion Mintz (9.8ppg, 36% 3ptfg%)
Olivier Sarr (10.8ppg, 5.2rpg)
Jacob Toppin (8.3ppg, 4.7rpg)
Oscar Tshiebwe (16.9ppg, 14.4rpg)
Kellan Grady (11.4ppg, 42% 3ptfg%)
Sahvir Wheeler (9.1ppg, 6.3apg)
Antonio Reeves (14.4ppg, 40% 3ptfg%)
CJ Fredrick (5.9ppg)
10 transfers, with all but Sestina starting 14+ games at UK. I wouldn’t consider any of them a “miss”, with Fredrick probably being the most disappointing due to injuries. Next season Kentucky has a highly touted freshman class coming in to take central roles. There’s a lot to still shake out in regards to returning players, but it’s pretty likely that UK will again dip into the transfer portal to address any needs. So, what might those needs be?
Assuming Jacob Toppin doesn’t return, UK will definitely need a power forward who brings some credible shooting. Chris Livingston (assuming he returns) could shift to the 4, but given the reluctance to play him there this season I think UK would look for help. Damion Collins and Lance Ware got some time backing up Toppin, but I’m going to pretend that Kentucky doesn’t want to play a complete non-shooter at power forward for my own sanity. Based on what Toppin and Keion Brooks produced as the starting 4s the last 2 seasons, I think UK should look for someone who:
Can chip in on rebounding (7%+ off reb rate, 13%+ def reb rate)
Has some defensive versatility (1.5%+ block rate, 1%+ steal rate)
Can finish around the rim (63%+ FG% at the rim)
Is willing to shoot threes (2+ 3PA per 40 min)
Keeps turnovers under control (<15% turnover rate)
Using Bart Torvik’s site, I’ll discuss some candidates currently in the portal. The first one, who UK has contacted, will be free for everyone but I’ll have profiles of 2 others for paid subscribers only. First up, an Ivy Leaguer who’s attracted a lot of attention from top programs:
Ledlum was recruited by a number of major program out of high school but chose Harvard because his favorite movies are “The Social Network” and “Stealing Harvard”…although I haven’t confirmed that and may have made it up. He made first team All Ivy in 2022-23 and has been contacted by Indiana, Kentucky, UCLA, Gonzaga and more.
When evaluating possible transfers moving up, I look for indicators that they were well ahead of their previous league athletically. Good stats for this are FG% at the rim, frequency of rim attempts, steal %, block %, and low turnover rates. Ledlum more or less checks these boxes: 60.3% at the rim, more than 50% of his shots there, 3.4% steal rate, 4.2% block rate, and 15.8% turnover rate. The FG% at the rim isn’t great and the turnover rate is a little high, but the defensive stats are great. Ledlum was also a stellar rebounder, so he can handle himself inside despite being a bit shorter than the typical power forward.
My main concerns with him (other than the two noted above) are that he seems to be a subpar shooter. He took 127 threes this season and hit just 38, for 29.9%; his prior 2 seasons were very much the same story. His team discouraged two point jumpers, but he was only 9-26 on them. He hit 32% on catch and shoot threes, including just 11-41 over his last 10 games. He’s also been a 65% FT shooter or worse over his career, indicating that he just doesn’t have great shooting touch. My suggestion to UK would be to pass on adding an undersized frontcourt player who may not be able to score a ton at the SEC level.
For paying subscribers, I offer up a couple names that are more interesting…and an annual subscription is just $19.50/yr until June 1st!
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