Who will be Louisville's playmaker?
Numbers back up the narrative that Louisville will be hurting for guards
Stop me if you’ve heard this, but Louisville men’s basketball needs more guards. That’s not quite correct, actually. Louisville doesn’t need players whose listed position is “guard”, they need players whose primary responsibility is to initiate the offensive scheme and create shots for others. I don’t particularly care if USC listed Tre White as a guard, or is incoming freshman Curtis Williams should be considered a guard, or anything of the sort. What I do care about is if Louisville has players who can improve the playmaking from last season.
Last season Louisville had 1 assist for every 1.6 turnovers as a team; their opponents had the opposite ratio, 1.6:1. Only El Ellis had more assists than turnovers. Louisville was in the 99th percentile of all teams in frequency of taking spot-up shots, as only Ellis used more possessions in pick-and-roll and isolation than in spot-ups. Put another way, only El Ellis could create his own shot off the dribble; everyone else took a ton of jumpers.
I don’t see much evidence that this is going to improve next season; honestly, it might get worse. When I stare into the depths of the cold, hard data about the players Louisville is returning and their incoming transfers, I don’t see evidence that Louisville has anyone who can create their own shot or create for their teammates frequently. Louisville may need to turn up the pace, because transition offense is one area where Louisville may actually be improved.
For paid subscribers, I explain why I don’t think any of Louisville’s current players can fill El Ellis’ role and why fast breaks might be the only good answer
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