Most of the chaos around the transfer portal has calmed down as far as Kentucky is concerned, which means we largely know what the Wildcat roster will look like for next season. With Keion Brooks transferring and no recruits or transfers bigger than 6’7”, it seems like the role of frontcourt partner for Oscar Tshiebwe will come down to 1 of 3 returnees from last season’s team: Jacob Toppin, Lance Ware, and Daimion Collins. Sure, Chris Livingston may get some minutes as a small-ball 4, but most projections for next season’s UK squad will include a larger role for one (if not more) frontcourt returnees. Technically Jacob Toppin has declared for the NBA Draft, but I think it’s safe to assume he’ll return after getting his feedback.
None of the three is a sure-fire candidate to fill Brooks’ role. All 3 were more reluctant shooters than Brooks was, and none has shown the 40%+ midrange shooting ability that Brooks had. There is potential for upgrades around defense and rebounding as you’ll read below, but each player has major questions marks that need to be resolved if Kentucky will take a step forward this season. While Toppin is probably the most likely candidate to take on a larger role, there’s some evidence that UK’s offense struggles when he’s on the court. Collins and Ware played very little, but Collins in particular has some relevant historical comps that point to him having a promising future. I’ll cover all that in this edition of Hoops Insight!
Hope for Toppin, but will the offense work?
In 3 seasons of college basketball at Rhode Island and Kentucky, Jacob Toppin’s overall stats haven’t budged a whole lot. He averaged 18.5 mpg, 5.2ppg, and 3.9 rpg as a freshman at Rhode Island and 17.7 mpg, 6.2ppg and 3.2rpg at Kentucky last season. These surface stats bely some real growth, however, that has many UK fans hoping he’ll be an impact player next season.
First, Toppin has become a very strong finisher at the rim. Last season he hit over 77% of his shots at the rim, on par with Oscar Tshiebwe and up from 62% the prior season and 68% at Rhode Island. He’s increased his diet of shots at the rim, taking half of shots there last season compared to <40% there in prior years.
Second, Toppin has become a very solid playmaker. Last season he posted an assist-turnover ratio of 1.8:1, behind only Wheeler and Washington. Per hoop-math.com, 59% of his assists were on three pointers, the highest ratio on the team.
These two developments have been crucial, because one area where Toppin has not developed is his shooting. He’s 21-76 in his college career from three (28%), and only 8-23 at Kentucky. He’s essentially taken one three every 40 minutes at UK, so he’s an unwilling shooter from the outside. He also has yet to hit even 35% on midrange jumpers, and has decreased his frequency of shooting from there over his career. Toppin overall took only about 16% of UK;s shots when he was on the court, less than his fair share.
What ends up happening is that defenders don’t pay much attention to Toppin as a floor spacer, and UK’s statistics show an impact. Last season when Toppin was on the court alongside other members of UK’s core 7 man rotation, the Wildcats scored 111.9 points per 100 possessions, but when Toppin sat these same players scored 121.2 points per 100 possessions. Kentucky did record a higher rate of assists with Toppin in, but shot worse when he played. This effect showed up in individual player stats, as Grady, Mintz, Washington, Wheeler and Tshiebwe each had a worse effective Fg% when playing alongside Toppin than when he sat. Every teammate either took fewer shots at the rim or had a worse FG% there, or both. Defenders were willing to help off of Toppin to slow down his teammates and it largely worked. For example, TyTy Washington hit 41% from midrange when Toppin sat but just 20% when Toppin’s defender was able to help onto him. The lack of space also forced Kentucky into more late shot clock situations, which accounted for 30% of possessions when Toppin played vs 25% when he sat.
The biggest issue came when Toppin played but Tshiebwe sat, meaning Ware or Collins was on the court. Because none of these three shoot much away from the rim and all take 16% or less of UK shots, defenders loaded up on UK’s guards. None of Kentucky’s guards had an effective FG% above 40% when playing with Toppin and either Ware or Collins. This was a recipe for an offensive disaster that Kentucky needs to avoid this season. Interestingly enough, UK was able to hold up OK when playing Toppin, Wheeler, and Tshiebwe together. While none of the three are really a threat from deep, Wheeler and Tshiebwe command enough attention that UK could make things work.
The defensive side of the ball is where there’s more promise for Toppin. He was a very good defender for the Wildcats last season, even more so than his individual stats would indicate. He had a pretty low rate of blocks and steals, but his mobility created problems for his defensive assignment. Players he was guarding had a 40% effective FG%, 2nd best on the team among the core rotation. Toppin allowed only a 31% eFG% when guarding catch and shoot plays; when Toppin’s man was unguarded they put up 64% in the same situations, per Synergy. Toppin also did an excellent job of helping to create turnovers, even though he collected relatively few steals himself; 15.5% of possessions he defended resulted in a turnover, the highest rate on the team. He was especially good defending isolations, where he forced 5 turnovers in 19 attempts for a 26% turnover rate; next best on the team was 8.7%. Toppin’s ability to slow down his assignment allows players like Oscar Tshiebwe to come in and collect steals. Toppin also had the highest defensive rebound rate of any non-center on UK last season at 14%, so he can finish off the possession as well as anyone.
Next season Toppin will likely get more playing time, perhaps as much as 25mpg or more. While his offensive game has morphed into that of a role player, he’s going to have to do more in order to keep defenders honest. It’s probably a bit much to ask a player to completely reverse a 3 year trend of becoming less willing of a shooter, but without that Kentucky is in a pickle. If defenders are willing to leave Toppin without fear of him scoring, UK may need to take a page from the Golden State Warriors playbook and utilize him in a similar fashion to Draymond Green. When Green’s man strays from him, the Warriors use Green to set screens off the ball or run dribble handoffs knowing that there’s no defender available to switch. This can free up shots for better shooters without the defense reacting.
I’m very uncertain as to how things will work out for Toppin next season, given that the two scenarios are either a player suddenly learns to shoot in his 4th year of college or UK starts running the Warriors offensive playbook; neither seems likely at all. However, Toppin made a big step forward last year as a useful role player, so it’s not unthinkable that he could become a solid starter this season…somehow.
Which little-used, non-shooting, defensive big will win out?
Last season Daimion Collins and Lance Ware basically took turns filling in the 6-10 minutes per game that Oscar Tshiebwe would sit. Collins played more early in the year and didn’t see 10 minutes in any game after Jan 1st, while Ware had 4 of his 5 games with double digit minutes after the new year.
Ware had a more positive impact last year all-around. During conference play, UK basically didn’t miss a beat when Ware came in for Tshiebwe. They outscored opponents just as effectively with Ware as Tshiebwe, and Ware actually allowed a lower FG% at the rim (52%) thna did Tshiebwe (59%). This was a big step forward, as the early season trend was for UK to get a big lead with Tshiebwe in and give it back when he sat.
Given that and the fact that Ware played more as the season went on, you might expect Lance Ware to have a bigger role than Daimion Collins next season. I’m not totally convinced, however. When I look at the numbers, Daimion Collins is basically Lance Ware plus a little bit more…in almost every way. Ware was the #39 recruit in his class, Collins was #12. Ware blocked 7% of opponent shots, while Collins blocked 11%. Ware did have a 67% FG% vs 58% for Collins, but Ware shot about half as frequently, and Collins was a much better free throw shooter. Both players had about 4x as many turnovers as assists. The argument for Ware is basically some seniority, while Collins has more potential.
Collins’ potential is going to be a major consideration for UK over the next couple of seasons. While he played very little as a freshman, the track record of top-50 recruits who can finish at the rim, block shots, and rebound is incredibly promising. Bart Torvik’s website has a tool to provide player comps based on statistical similarities, and Collins’ comps are stunningly good. Despite the fact that Collins played only 201 minutes all season, 8 of his 10 most similar players were drafted by the NBA (or project to be drafted).
David McCormack is a very interesting comp in particular. McCormack averaged 4pts and 3reb per game in under 11 mpg as a freshman, and not much more as a sophomore. He had been the #30 recruit in his class, and might have transferred if the current rules were in place. He stayed, won Big 12 Most Improved Player as a junior, and won a national title as a low post centerpiece last season. He is in the 2022 NBA Draft, although it’s questionable if he’ll get selected. If both Collins and Kentucky can be patient, he may be ready to step in as the center in 2023-24.
Beyond Collins’ future prospects, I don’t see either Collins or Ware getting a much larger role than last season. Both players have been non-shooters (although Collins 85% FT% in a small sample offers a glimmer of hope), so power forward doesn’t seem like a fit. Either can be a rim protector and rebounder as a backup center, but would need massive growth to be impactful in other areas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Collins getting more minutes early in the year again during non-conference games to try to develop his game, and UK may try to rest Tshiebwe a bit more often when possible, but I wouldn’t count on a lot more than that.
The wild card: Patrick Baldwin, Jr.
One name that’s been mentioned as a late transfer addition is Patrick Baldwin, Jr. He played 11 games at Milwaukee last season (where his father coached), and has entered the NBA Draft but is a fringe first roun prospect. Kentucky is rumored to be a likely destination should he return to school.
Baldwin was not very good last season, as he was hampered by injuries. However, he was the #5 recruit in his HS class with a reputation as a strong shooter at 6’10”. He brings a dimension that none of UK’s other frontcourt options does. He also was a strong rebounder last season in limited minutes and flashed some playmaking for a freshman with teammates of more modest talent.
If UK added Baldwin, their offense would probably be even better than last season, which would make it maybe the best in the country. That assumes that Baldwin’s 40% 3pt% in EYBL play during high school is more reflective of his actual talent level.
Even without Baldwin, UK can be a national title contender. The coaching staff will need to figure out how to make an offense work if opponents are largely able to ignore one player on the court, but the overall positives and potential of UK’s frontcourt players should be able to mitigate the lack of shooting.