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Kentucky doesn’t have much left to prove in the regular season. They have shown they can blow out even the best opponents, they can grind out wins, and they can comeback from early deficits. They are a fairly well balanced team as they rank 2nd in offense and 22nd in defense per KenPom. What’s not to love?
Since Valentine’s Day, the Cats have offered a sweetheart defense to their opponents however. Baskets haven’t been hard to get for their opponents, as UK has allowed each opponent to score at least 102 points per 100 possessions after holding their prior 6 opponents under 99. 4 of the 5 highest points per possession figures for any UK opponent have been achieved in this recent stretch.
So what’s going on with the UK defense, and why is it suddenly collapsing? That’s the subject of this edition of Hoops Insight.
Not just a product of good opponents or just injuries
Right away I can think of 2 theories that most fans would offer up: 1) It’s because of injuries to Washington and Wheeler, and 2) UK has been playing really good teams so of course those teams would score more.
Maybe the first one is the full answer, and once Washington and Wheeler are back to full health everything will be healed. But there are 2 reasons why I’m not fully convinced. First, the defensive issues were just as bad against Ole Miss as in the previous games despite Washington and Wheeler playing most of that game. Maybe they weren’t fully healthy, but they combined for 30 points on 11-19 shooting. Kentucky allowed Ole Miss to put up their 6th best offensive efficiency of the season, and only 1 of the 5 better games came against an NCAA-bound team (Alabama). Nothing about the Ole Miss game indicated that UK had fixed its defense. Second, UK had not shown any defensive slippage in earlier SEC games when either player went to the bench. UK had limited time with both out, but were just as stingy defensively with either guard on the bench as they were with both in.
For the second argument, I can rebut that pretty definitively. While UK did play a murderer’s row of top SEC teams, those teams are primarily led by their defense. In SEC play, UK’s last 5 opponents’ offensive efficiency ranks among the conference are #3 (Alabama), #5 (Tennessee), #6 (Arkansas), #9 (Ole Miss) and #12 (LSU) per KenPom. That averages out to #7 in a 14 team conference, or pretty much smack dab average.
Oddly enough, UK has not had much trouble scoring against these teams. UK is averaging 115.2 pts/100 possessions, almost exactly their full season average. However, the Cats are allowing 113.7 per 100, way higher than their 94.5 per 100 average for the season. Per BartTorvik.com, since Valentine’s Day Kentucky ranks 4th in offense nationally but a whopping 242nd in defense.
This needs to get fixed before UK begins postseason play, or the Wildcats might be going home earlier than expected. So what areas need to improve the most?
Turnovers, transition, and midrange
The first area where UK needs to show improvement is in forcing turnovers. Through their first 12 SEC games UK forced turnovers on 19% of opponent possessions, but this has dropped to just 14% in the last 5 games. I mentioned this in my last article as an area I wanted to see UK improve, but against Ole Miss Kentucky once again forced turnovers on just 14% of possessions. I speculated that the return of Wheeler and Washington would fix this, but in their first game back nothing much changed.
A 5% decline in opponent turnover rate is a big deal! Based on their opponents’ scoring rate, if UK had forced turnovers at their usual 19% rate they would have allowed 4 fewer points per game. That would have been the difference in the Arkansas loss, and would have improved UK from 242nd in defense to about 135th. That’s not great, but it’s a massive improvement. That’s a place I’d expect Kentucky to start improving soon now that they are at full strength.
UK can’t just depend on forcing turnovers, however. They need to demonstrate an ability to keep opponents from scoring even if they don’t come up with a steal. One particular area where Kentucky needs to tighten up is in transition defense. In their first 12 SEC games UK allowed an effective FG% of 48% in transition; per hoop-math.com that would be a top 30ish rate over the full season. In their last 5 UK has allowed a 54% eFG% in transition, which is about 220th. UK is allowing opponents to score more often at the rim and from three recently. The Cats may have benefitted from some luck earlier in the year as opponents hit just 20% of their transition threes early in SEC play, which has risen to 33% lately. UK has been flat-out bad at defending opponent forays to the rim in transition lately, though. They’ve allowed a 71% FG% there, which is better than any of their recent opponents had averaged in SEC play. UK has been getting especially roasted in transition after the Wildcats make a basket. Of the 56 shots UK has allowed in transition the last 5 games, 32 have come after a made basket. Opponents are hitting 75% at the rim on these. UK has to do a better job of getting back on defense after makes and stopping the ball. This may be especially taxing on Oscar Tshiebwe as UK has been more prone to give up these baskets when he’s in. The fact that he has been taking a higher percentage of UK shots may be making it harder for him to track back immediately afterward, but this needs to get cleaned up.
One area where UK opponents may be just getting bit lucky is in midrange shooting. The last 5 Wildcat opponents have hit 46% of their midrange shots, which is not a sustainable rate. UK has been allowing 38% in earlier SEC game, which is pretty typical of what decent midrange teams shoot. 46% is insane; the D-1 leader in midrange shooting is Bellarmine at 45.8%. That won’t continue.
The good news is that Kentucky has absolutely shown the ability to play elite defense. Prior to this recent stretch UK was 19th in defensive efficiency. They don’t even need to be at that level all the time to be a national title contender, but it’s good to know that UK can defend with the best teams in America.
I wouldn’t be surprised if UK has spent a good bit of the past few days focusing on tightening up their defense. If UK can get back to their typical levels just in regards to turnover and opponent midrange shooting, the Wildcats would be a top 75 level defense. If they tighten up the transition defense as well, they easily shoot back up to a top 20 level.I’ll be watching very closely to see what UK can do in their rematch against Florida.
During the first matchup, the Gators didn’t have many transition opportunities (4 by my count), and turned the ball over on 18% of their possessions. They did hit 44% from midrange (and a perfect 8 for 8 at the rim!) but UK was good enough on offense that it didn’t really matter. I’d like to see the Wildcats win this one with their defense and head into the SEC Tournament on a high note. I’m sure John Calipari agrees!