What's sparking Louisville's comebacks?
In 2 of their first 3 games the Cards rallied from down double digits. What's the secret to these improved stretches?
I can’t make a case for any Louisville fan to be optimistic or pleased with this basketball season so far. The most positive spin I can put on 0-3 is that each game has been exciting and competitive at the very end, with plenty of tense late possessions. That’s cold comfort to anyone who rightly believes that the Cardinals should not be in tight games against teams projected in the middle of the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, or Sun Belt.
With that being said, Louisville has had some sustained stretches where they played at a MUCH better level. Specifically, the second halves against Bellarmine and App State showcased what a better version of Louisville looks like. Across these two halves, Louisville outscored their opponents by a combined 22 points in 65 possessions. Of course, they lost both by 1, so it doesn’t take a math genius to realize they lost the first halves by 24 points (in 63 possessions). Those first halves were completely awful, but the sustained success in the later half of each game offers some hope.
In the two second halves, Louisville made small progress on the scoreboard before exploding for big runs late to close within 1 point. The pattern has looked like:
Down big for 20 minutes→ Even or slightly better for 10-15 minutes → Winning big for 5-10 minutes
In both games, Louisville was lousy on both the offensive and defensive ends in the first half. They improved offensively during the second half, and the big runs came when the opponent had a very cold shooting streak while Louisville kept up a steady pace. That’s probably the best case for Louisville to be competitive through this season: steady offensively, while capitalizing on poor opponent shooting to establish a lead. But what factors helped Louisville improve on offense? Is it something sustainable? I believe it is, and I’ll make that case.
Not based on anything flukey
The first thing to understand is that Louisville’s success in the second half of these games isn’t based on anything particularly unsustainable:
The Cards’ turnover rate is still pretty high (22%) and their opponents is much lower (17%); this is probably going to be an issue all season
Louisville isn’t benefitting from hot 3 point shooting; they’re hitting 35% from deep in these second half comebacks vs 34% overall for the season
Instead, there are two key things helping Louisville stage comebacks:
They are getting to the rim much more often, and converting
Opponents are shooting much worse
The cold shooting by opponents is helping make the comebacks bigger, but make no mistake….Louisville’s offense is dramatically improved in the second halves. Even without cold shooting by their opponents, Louisville would still have been about 12 points better combined over the two second halves. If Louisville can sustain that level of performance over entire games, they’ll roughly be about the level of the 60th ranked team per KenPom. That’s on par with Syracuse and NC State in the middle of the ACC.
Two players getting to the rim on offense
Two players in particular make up almost all of the increase in getting shots at the rim: El Ellis and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. In the first halves against Bellarmine and App State, Ellis took 17 shots. 13 of these were from three, 3 were midrange jumpers, and just 1 was at the rim. Ellis was 6-13 from three but 0-4 at the rim. It’s staggering that Louisville can be getting demolished when their best player is hitting 6-13 from three, but it’s true. In these same first halves, Huntley-Hatfield has taken just 4 shots and only 1 at the rim.
In the second halves, each player is more aggressive about getting to the rim…and converting. Ellis took 5 of his 16 shots at the rim in the second halves, and went 4-5 there. BHH did even better, taking 7 of his 8 shots at the rim and making 5 of those. In total, Louisville goes from taking just 8 of 49 shots at the rim in the first halves to taking 20 of 50 shots there in the second half. These rim attempts come at the expense of midrange jumpers, which Louisville is quite bad at (just 29%, 10-34 for the year).
On film, the Ellis/BHH pick and roll looks like a nice weapon. Huntley-Hatfield is much more fluid than Sydney Curry or Roosevelt Wheeler, and has more bulk than JJ Traynor, so he’s a good option as a roll man in space. That leads into another observation about how the offense is shifting in these halves….
Role changes
In the second half comebacks, El Ellis and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield have notable shifts in their roles. In the first halves, Ellis is a gunner who’s turnover-prone. He is taking 37% of Louisville’s shots when he’s in the game, and averages 2 assists and 5 turnovers per 40 minutes. His terrific 3 point shooting is largely negated by the volume of turnovers, and he’s having little success involving his teammates. I shudder to think how bad it would be if he WASN’T hitting 46% from three. In the second halves, he turns the shooting down a notch and becomes a much more effective playmaker. He’s taking 32% of UofL shots and averaging 6 assists and 3 turnovers per 40 minutes. He’s actually only 2-9 from deep in these second halves, so things could be even better with some hot shooting.
Huntley-Hatfield has a shift the opposite way. In the first halves he’s pretty passive on offense, taking just 4 shots (11% of UofL shots) and functioning largely as a playmaker; he assisted on 20% of his teammates baskets. He has been a dominant rebounder in these halves, grabbing 16% of UofL misses and 29% of opponents’. During the second halves, he becomes much more aggressive going for his own shot. He took 20% of UofL’s shots, and assisted on only 7% of teammate makes. His offensive rebounding drops off as he takes more shots (only snags 9% of UofL misses) but the defensive rebounding stays excellent (gets 25% of opponent misses).
Interestingly enough, no other Louisville players see a major changes in their role or effectiveness. Mike James and Jae’lyn Withers continue to be efficient offensive cogs, and everyone else contributes about the same way you’d expect, but this shift in responsibilities for Ellis and BHH seems to be a recipe for offensive competency. If I was on staff at Louisville, I’d make the Ellis/BHH pick and roll a key part of the offense and look to involve Huntley-Hatfield on offense as a scorer early in the game. Getting some offensive rhythm can help the defense, as it’s a whole lot easier to guard when you can set up after making a basket. Knocking off anyone in Maui may be a tall order, but if Louisville can get into an effective offense from the start of a game instead of waiting until halftime they should be able to rack up a few wins before conference play.