Kentucky will once again go on an exhibition tour to the Bahamas this August as they look to get a head start on the 2022-23 season. In 2018-19, this trip served as an appetizer of some things to come:
Tyler Herro served notice that he would be a bucket as he scored a nice 69 points in 4 games to lead UK in scoring
PJ Washington flashed a 3 point shot, hitting 3 of 7 in 4 games (43% on 1.8 att per game) after hitting just 5 of 21 as a freshman
Ashton Hagans showed off quick hands, recording 8 steals in 4 games
Kentucky drew free throws like it gave them life, including drawing 48 against Mega Bemax; they would rank 14th in the country that year in free throw rate
Kentucky dominated the defensive glass, collected 75% of opponent misses; the Cats had their 2nd best defensive rebounding season under Calipari that year
In some other ways, the 2018 Bahamas trip differed from the season to follow:
Quade Green, Immanuel Quickley, and Nick Richards each started the first 3 games of the tour; they combined to start only 10 total games during the season and Green transferred after 9 games with zero starts
Richards in particular looked like a major low post threat, averaging 12 point per game; he went on to average 4 points per game during the season as Reid Travis became the preferred center on the roster
UK largely avoided turnovers, committing only 45 (11.3 per game) and forcing 48 (12 per game); however, UK committed more turnovers than they forced during the season
The Wildcats won each game comfortably, so some of the performances were likely throw off by a significant amount of garbage time. However, based on what we’ve seen before in these exhibition games as well as key focus areas this offseason, I’ve come up with some potentially meaningful things to watch for during these games.
Role evolution for returnees
During the previous exhibition tour, Kentucky gave every opportunity for returnees PJ Washington, Nick Richards, and Quade Green to demonstrate growth. For Washington, the key was showing his skill as a go-to scorer as well as a perimeter shot. For Richards, it was building confidence after a freshman season where he started every game but played less than 10 minutes in 9 of the last 10 games and never scored more than 10 points after January 16. For Green, it was an opportunity to re-establish a starting role after he lost the point guard role to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during the previous season. Washington showed he could be a go-to player, and Richards did flash some of the skill that would become his standard one season later, but Green did little to shake the “streaky scorer, limited playmaker” label.
This season, a few players will have an opportunity to establish themselves similarly. First, Jacob Toppin is looking to make the move from role player to key performer, and he will likely get significant chances to show off his scoring chops as well as an improved outside shot. At Kentucky, Toppin has been a reluctant scorer (takes about 16% of shots when on the court, when 20% would be average) and infrequent shooter from the outside (23 attempts from 3 at UK). I’m sure the coaching staff would like to see Toppin be more aggressive as a scorer and shooter…a good sign will be if he does so without the coaching staff needing to remind him.
Damion Collins is on a similar trajectory as Nick Richards as a highly-regarded interior recruit who put up pedestrian stats as a freshman but oozes athletic potential. Look for Collins to get much more playing time than he did last season (more than 10 minutes once after Dec 7). I’d imagine the coaching staff is looking for him to assert himself as a shot-blocking and rebounding presence, with some flashes of interior scoring.
UK doesn’t have any returnees who need to re-earn their rotation spot, but I do think there’s one returnee who UK’s staff will be looking to evaluate for confidence and feel after a layoff. CJ Fredrick was a dynamite scorer and effective secondary playmaker for Iowa, but injuries have hampered him and cost him all of last season. Kentucky doesn’t have much backcourt depth this season, so they will need him to get back up to D-1 speed quickly. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kentucky had him start and ran some plays to get him open looks early to re-establish his confidence and feel. It will be a great sign for Kentucky’s season if Fredrick is willing to take and able to make plenty of three pointers on this trip.
Kentucky’s two other returnees, Sahvir Wheeler and Lance Ware, don’t have a lot to prove on this trip, in my opinion. Wheeler is one of the top playmakers in college basketball but is somewhat limited in his own scoring ability; I look for him to be more of a leader in helping other players establish their games on this trip. Ware is an unspectacular and largely undervalued interior tough guy who can rebound and defend, but isn’t going to do much on offense. UK probably gets more out of giving Collins minutes than Ware on this trip, because Ware is extremely dependable.
The first glimpse of newcomers
Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson, and Ashton Hagans all showed flashes of who they’d become during the last Bahamas tour. Herro was an effective shotmaker and scorer, Johnson was a slashing scorer but a limited shooter, and Hagans was an orchestrator and defensive pest.
I am very interested to see how UK’s 2022 newcomers begin to put their stamp Cason Wallace has a reputation as a bulldog defender, steady playmaker and capable outside shooter; can he be one of the top scorers on the team consistently? Chris Livingston is thought of as a bull of a forward who can out-quick or overpower defenders, but is he going to be enough of an outside threat or rebounder to fill the complimentary role that’s needed from him? Antonio Reeves developed into a dynamite scorer for Illinois State; is he polished enough to be a go-to perimeter scorer or is he more of a supporting player? Lastly, Adou Thiero is less heralded than most UK freshmen and little is expected from him (other than stories of open growth plates and dreams of a 6’10” guard). Will he look overwhelmed or is he able to contribute this season?
Tweaks in playing style
I don’t expect Kentucky to change very much this season from how their offense and defense have traditionally functioned, but there are a couple small things I’ll be watching for:
Will Oscar shoot threes? Given the lip service the staff has given this, I’d expect him to shoot a couple a game during these exhibitions. No idea if he hits them though.
Will Kentucky push the pace even more? UK was one of the most transition-happy teams in the country when Sahvir Wheeler was in last season, but slowed down considerably when he sat. Can they push the pace more and score effectively in transition, relieving on the pressure on their halfcourt offense?
Can the Wildcats force turnovers? UK has only ranked in the top 125 in the nation in opponent turnover rate once under Calipari (48th in 2015). But with the potential of two aggressive defenders in the backcourt in Wallace and Wheeler, the Cats might have opportunities to jump some passing lanes.
Will UK get back to drawing free throws? Last season UK drew free throws at the lowest rate (by far) of any Calipari team. Some of this likely was due to the tendency to shoot midrange jumpers before drawing fouls near the basket, but there’s no reason that UK’s frontcourt shouldnt’t be living at the foul line
It’s not critical that Kentucky have everything figured out for these games, but I’d expect the coaching staff will have UK well prepared to execute whatever strategies they are planning for this season. If there are areas that the staff is prioritizing, we’ll see that in these games. Sometimes it’s hard to notice in the moment, but we’ll probably get some clues once the exhibition games are done and we see the final results (and stats!).
One particularly interesting opponent
When I saw the list of opponents for this tour, I figured it was the usual business: some outmatched national teams or junior national teams, and some overseas club teams with grown men but less talent than Kentucky. One opponent is decidedly not from either of these molds: Carleton University.
Most college basketball fans have no memory of ever hearing of Carleton, but fans of some teams remember them very well. Most fans probably have heard of them and don’t even know it, likely from their 2018 tour when the rumor was that Duke was “ducking” them. Carleton is THE college basketball powerhouse in Canada, having won 16 of the last 19 national titles. They also frequently play D-1 teams in exhibitions, and are 17-4 in their last 21 such games. They won 13 straight from 2017-19, beating such teams as Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Vanderbilt (2x). They won by 60 points over a South Dakota State team that won the Summit Conference. They haven’t played a D-1 exhibition since 2019, but their program is likely comparable to a solid mid-major program in the NCAA, with occasional peaks as a top-25 caliber team.
Carleton won’t be a pushover, and a big UK win against them would be quite an achievement. It’s worth noting that the Carleton game is the only game UK is playing on the tour where they have the day off before…that game might be the one on this tour where we can learn the most. I don’t think Kentucky will lose that one, but I think they’ll get a pretty good battle.