What’s old is new again with the Louisville Cardinals. The season began with Mike Pegues as acting head coach in the absence of the suspended Chris Mack, and now it continues with Pegues taking over after Chris Mack’s departure from the program. I wouldn’t blame Louisville fans for not remembering much from the beginning of the season which feels like so long ago. The pleasant memories of the Baha Mar Classic, the maddening defeat to Furman, it all feels like so long ago. Let’s take a look back to those first 6 games and see what might be informative as we try to predict what Louisville might look like over the next few games.
Possibly a more defined rotation
The last few games of the Mack era were notable for the completely unsettled nature of the rotation. Over the last 6 games no Cardinal lineup played more than 20 possessions total; an established lineup could easily play that many in a single game. Indeed, the first 6 games of the season saw a much more clearly defined rotation.
While they actually only started 5 of the 6 games, the lineup of West/Locke/Davis/Withers/Williams was clearly the preferred one to begin the season. This group played 95 possessions across the first 6 games, more than 3x the possessions of the 2nd most played lineup. This amounted to 23% of the non-garbage time possessions. Since that opening stretch Louisville has not had any 6 game stretch where a lineup played more than 20% of the non-garbage time possessions, so this is a notable departure from how Louisville later managed the rotations. During that 6 game stretch this preferred lineup played 23 possessions against Mississippi State and 21 against Maryland, accounting for 2 of the 3 instances this season where a Cardinal lineup played more than 20 possessions.
It’s unclear if this pattern was due to how Louisville wanted to work with so many newcomers or if Mike Pegues really prefers more clear rotations definition than Chris Mack. Additionally, it seems unlikely that the same lineup would be preferred now as this group has actually played only 1 possession since December 10th. Regardless, I would not be surprised to see Louisville try to establish 1 or 2 key lineups over the next few games.
A return to pace?
While the perception may be that Louisville has played with more pace this season, that really hasn’t been true for over a month. An average NCAA team gets about 67 possessions in a single game, and Louisville is basically right on that for the season. The Cards have only had one game reach 70 possessions since December 18th. 9 UofL games have reached 70 possessions or more in regulation, and 4 of those were under Mike Pegues’ stewardship.
The slowdown has been directly related to Louisville getting out in transition less often. Over the first 6 games the Cardinals took 29% of their shots in transition (defined as within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock); since Mack returned from suspension that number has been 19%.
Louisville had an effective FG% of 52% in transition in these first 6 games, compared to 47% in halfcourt offense, so the transition opportunities really helped. Since those opening games this has flipped, with a 43% eFG% in transition and 51% in halfcourt. The best case scenario for Louisville is retaining their halfcourt effectiveness while regaining some of their vigor in transition.
Which players might thrive?
It’s impossible to know how any of the players will react to this coaching change. But there are a few players who had vastly different roles under Pegues and might capitalize.
Sam Williamson is a prime example. In the first 6 games he took 27% of UofL’s shots when he was in the game despite coming off the bench. He averaged 16.2 pts and 11.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. Since then he takes less than 20% of UofL’s shots when in and averages just 11.2 pts and 8.6 reb per 40 minutes.
El Ellis is an example of a player who might be able to sustain recent improvement under Pegues and improve his role from early in the season. Ellis had an effective FG% of just 31% in the first 6 due to a 1 for 11 stretch from three point range, but he’s posted a very good eFg% of 55% since that time and has been taking 25% of UofL’s shots when in.
Lastly, Jae’lyn Withers may be able to finally find his groove this season. Withers was effective early in the season, posting an effective FG% of 59% and hitting 33% from deep while taking over half of his shots from there. However, he seemed gun-shy and took less than 18% of Louisville shots when he was in the game. Withers then had an 8 game stretch where he barely shot and couldn’t hit anything. In the last 6 games Withers has adjusted, taking over half of shots at the rim (where he’s historically hit around 70% of his shots). Hitting just 0 for 6 over the last 6 games from three has hurt his accuracy, but if Withers can regain some of his early season form while continuing to attack the rim then Louisville may have a solid player.
The most important thing for Louisville is just finding some sort of rhythym for their players and to make basketball fun again this season. If Mike Pegues can bring more structure and role definition, there can be more useful evaluation. The staff (or a future staff) will be able to evaluate the players, and the players can evaluate how they feel about the program and each other. This next month and half can set the foundation for next season and allow the fan base to rediscover their enjoyment of Cardinal basketball. A hardfought battle against the loathed Duke Blue Devils would be a very nice start.