What is Sahvir Wheeler?
The lightning rod for UK fan criticism, but does he deserve it?
Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination - Andrew Lang
For some reason, UK fans have consistently disliked Sahvir Wheeler over the last 2 seasons. I think the genesis was the Notre Dame loss in Dec 2021 when Wheeler was dared to shoot and went 0-5 from the field. All sorts of bizarre narratives have formed around him, like the idea that he’s turnover-prone (he had the best assist:turnover ratio of any guard with 6+ assists last season) or that he sabotages the UK offense (the offense has WAY more issues than just Wheeler). I even wrote an article about his strengths and weaknesses last June:
Wheeler is far from perfect, but a) a perfect point guard doesn’t exist in college and b) he’s far from the only reason or even the biggest reason UK has disappointed this season.
Most of the arguments against Wheeler just assume that his obvious shortcomings (height, lack of shooting off the dribble) are huge negatives that hold Kentucky back. Some of the arguments cherry-pick data points to make this case. I have yet to see any arguments that attempt to link a hypothesis about his impact to any actual data and/or video evidence. In the absence, I thought I’d put together some of what I see when I analyze data and video about what type of player Sahvir Wheeler is, and the proper context for how he fits into a successful Kentucky Wildcats team.
For premium subscribers…data and video about Wheeler’s strengths, weaknesses, and general impact on the team and individual players….
Individual strengths and weaknesses
Let’s just disabuse ourselves of anything we know about Sahvir Wheeler and start fresh right here. Sahvir Wheeler:
Is average/poor at creating his own shot, but excellent at creating for others
In self-creation sets (pick and roll and isolation), Wheeler has a 43% effective FG%, which is inefficient. But, when teammates shoot off his pass they have a 57% effective FG% which is excellent.
For comparison, Cason Wallace has a 44% eFG% in the same actions and his passes create a 51% eFG%
Is incredibly left-hand dominant
When driving left Wheeler has a 60% eFG%, and 35% when driving right
Is a solid spot-up shooter, but terrible off the dribble
53% effective FG% on spot-ups, including 41% from 3
42% on dribble jumpers and 39% on runners
Turns the ball over very little for the amount of ballhandling he does
6.1 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game; 6th lowest turnover rate among 15 players with 6+ assists, and 3rd among Power 6 players
Ast:to ratio of 2.77 is improved from last year’s 2.3
There are some real limitations in the profile above. It’s ridiculous that Kentucky uses him in late-clock situations to create shots, as he doesn’t have enough time to create high-quality passes and is absolutely miscast as a midrange shooter. He also can be neutralized when teams force him right.
However, Wheeler is absolutely a catalyst who improves offense around him. If UK needs a point guard who can get his own shot and run isolation, Cason Wallace is the man for that job. If UK wants a point guard to distribute the ball to scorers, Sahvir Wheeler is the guy.
Wheeler’s defense has been regarded as poor this year, but that’s not entirely the case. Wheeler grades out as Very Good defending pick and roll by Synergy, although he’s graded as Poor in defending spot-ups. Synergy has him giving up about 40% shooting from three , which isn’t good. Cason Wallace grades out as Excellent defending spot-ups, but just Average defending pick and roll. Something Wheeler has done very well in guarding pick and roll is defending when a ballhandler turns down the pick and changes direction; he also fights over screens with real energy. He’s been put in some bad spots where he goes over picks against players who are poor shooters (Tyger Campbell from UCLA), but that seems to be by design from the coaches as nobody corrected it. Wheeler’s small stature can be taken advantage of on isolations, but he tends to battle well against bigger players. The opponent three point shooting is the real mark against him.
I pulled some clips from one of his worst games guarding spot-ups, Missouri, to see how much was really his fault. Here are his clips, you can decide if he’s a liability on closeouts:
Here are my thoughts (clockwise from top left), your mileage may vary:
Wheeler sprints to close out on Tshiebwe’s man, I struggle to see how this reflects on Wheeler at all
Transition 3 by a good shooter, Wheeler doesn’t contest well. If he knew how much help was behind he should have closed out better.
Wheeler doubled Livingston’s man (although Livingston kinda left) and scrambled to contest a jumper. I don’t have a real problem with his work here.
Took a bad angle through traffic and closed out poorly.
Really nice closeout here, shading his contest to the shooting hand.
In nearly every case Wheeler shows strong effort in sprinting to close out. I don’t know his exact assignments here, and it’s possible he was massively at fault in ways that aren’t obvious, but these are not lazy closeouts at all and his lack of height isn’t a major issue. Several of these shots are by frontcourt players, so any guard would have issues contesting well.
One thing I noticed is that Wheeler is disciplined when his man is more than one pass away. He doesn’t leave his man carelessly to open up passing lanes, but rather is eithe hard doubling or staying with shooters. Notice Wheeler at the top of the key here:
Wheeler could have drifted into the lane looking for a cheap steal, but that would open up his man for a catch and shoot opportunity. Instead he kept that lane closed off.
Overall, the biggest two complaints I can see about Wheeler is he struggles to create his own shot and doesn’t have length to swallow up shooters after helping off of them. Given his extremely good passing and pick and roll defense, I think his strengths and weaknesses are pretty balanced. But what about his impact on the team?
Clear impact on offense, maybe unlucky on defense
For this next section I’ll focus on a clear sample of games against reasonable quality teams, using top-150 in the NET as a cutoff. That’s games against Duquense, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan, Yale, UCLA, Missouri, LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.
UK’s offense is clearly better with him in. The Cats score 102.1 pts per 100 possessions with him in and 94.6 with him out in these games. UK draws more free throws with him out (due to the last 2 games) but otherwise every meaningful stat is better with him in. 3pt FG% (36% vs 26%), 2pt FG% (45% vs 43%), turnover rate (17% vs 18%), even offensive rebounding (37% vs 34%). That’s not all due to Wheeler, but he’s certainly not hurting the offense in any way that shows up in data.
On defense, UK is worse with Wheeler in. They allow 107.7 points per 100 possessions with him in an only 92.8 with him out. This is almost entirely due to 3 point shooting, as opponents hit 41% with him in and 20% with him out. Maybe Wheeler is at fault for all of this, but 3 point shooting is notoriously volatile and opponents hitting only 20% from three is not something that a D-1 team can make D-1 opponents due with any actual skill.
UK’s offensive style has some positive signs with Wheeler in, as the team shoots less often from midrange and more often from three when he’s in. When Wheeler is out, the offense has largely been powered by scoring off of steals. 10% of UK’s possessions start with a steal with Wheeler out, and the Cats score 127 points per 100 possessions here and just 91.8 on any other type of possessions. With Wheeler in, UK scores 104 pts per 100 poss off steals and 102 on any other type of possessions. This indicates that UK’s offense generates better shots and hits them at higher rates when he’s running the show.
UK’s overall scoring margin has been better in these games with Wheeler out, especially after adjusting for competition. UK’s adjusted margin per 100 possessions is +9.3 with Wheeler in and +19.4 with him out (adjusted margin is a measure of how much better a team is than an average D-1 team, adjusting for opponent). This is entirely due to the Georgia game, as prior to that game UK was slightly better in this sample with Wheeler in (even factoring in the Tennessee win). Prior to the Tennessee game, it wasn’t even close…in non-conference, UK was MUCH better with Wheeler in than out.
The interesting thing is that, in the same sample of games, UK has been better with Cason Wallace out vs in as well. UK’s adjusted margin in these games is +11.5 per 100 poss with Wallace in and +16.0 with him out. The real keys to positive plus/minus have been Fredrick and Reeves, and overall UK has been virtually identical whether they play with Wallace or Wheeler. Because Wallace has played twice as often with them as Wheeler has, he gets a little extra benefit in the analysis. Kentucky has been quite bad against good teams when Wallace plays without Wheeler or Reeves, indicating that the Cats need 2 playmakers with Fredrick to play their best.
Where Wheeler really shines, however, is how he elevates the offensive game of his teammates.
Making others better
If the mark of a great teammate is making players around him better, Wheeler fits the bill. Of the 6 teammates who play with him most often, 4 are markedly better alongside Wheeler:
CJ Fredrick has an effective FG% of 56% with Wheeler in and 27% with him out; he’s 5-13 from 3 with Wheeler and 5-22 with him out, and 1-7 from midrange with Wheeler out
Cason Wallace has an effective FG% of 58% with Wheeler in, going 18-42 from 3 as he takes 66% of his shots from deep. With Wheeler out, his eFG% is 44%, and he’s 3-9 from deep with just 1/4 of his shots coming outside the arc
Antonio Reeves’ eFG% is 38.5% with Wheeler in and 45% with him out; he’s also one of two players who take midrange shots more frequently with Wheeler in
Jacob Toppin’s effective FG% is 41% with Wheeler and just 28% without him
Chris Livingston has a 44% eFG% with Wheeler, hitting 5-14 from 3 and taking nearly half his shots from deep. Without Wheeler, his eFG% is 32% and he’s 0-3 from 3 and 1-10 from midrange.
Oscar Tshiebwe is the other player who’s more efficient with Wheeler out, with an eFG% of 53% with Wheeler in and 65% with him out. Tshiebwe’s FG% at the rim is virtually identical in either case at 65%, but he takes midange shots twice as often when Wheeler is in and hits just 25% of them.
So we have 4 players who shoot better with Wheeler in, and in general they all get shots from more efficient spots on the floor. Then we have 2 players (Reeves and Tshiebwe) who are less effiicent with Wheeler in. I think a good bit of the improved shooting with Wheeler is real, as this was the case last year and at Georgia. The Reeves and Tshiebwe situations are “real” too, although I think Reeves’ issues are more directly tied to Wheeler than Tshiebwe’s.
Reeves is a shifty ballhandler and driver in halfcourt offense, but not much of a passer. At times, Wheeler’s man will help off of him onto Reeves to thwart drives. Reeves usually doesn’t pass out of these, but instead takes midrange contested jumpers. Wheeler has improved on catch and shoot threes this season, but Reeves usually doesn’t have the vision to see him; these two aren’t always a great match on the court.
Tshiebwe’s issues are more due to the propensity for UK to run pick and roll with those two despite a season and a half of evidence that it doesn’t work. Tshiebwe will pop out for midrange jumpers frequently, and he’s not a great shooter there. With Wheeler out of the game, Tshiebwe is more strictly a low-post presence near the rim. Maybe there are concerns about Wheeler’s height impacting his post feeds, but given the rate his teammates score off his passes maybe UK should rely less on Oscar bullyball and more on spreading the floor to take advantage of Wheeler’s gifts?
Sahvir Wheeler is far from a perfect player, but that’s the case with any college kid, He brings some exceptional strengths, most notably his ability to get teammates quality shots. Kentucky has been better with Wheeler in more often than not this season, although the last 2 games have been notable for completely reversing that season-long trend. I don’t know that UK can keep up some of the key factors of the past 2 games (cold opponent three point shooting, drawing fouls unrelated to offense) and if they don’t, the halfcourt offense struggles that have plagued Kentucky without Wheeler this season likely will return. I believe the issues for which Wheeler takes the blame are more due to poor lineup construction around him and poor strategic decisions rather than any extreme shortcomings of his, and UK could very easily put him in positive situations where the team benefits. If you have made it this far and still disagree, then I guess your dislike of Wheeler is just something that won’t go away. I’m sorry, but you’re missing a pretty fun player who makes the game more enjoyable for his teammates.
I’m actually working on something right now looking at where UK has slipped in the past two years, and a few ideas of how they can “right the ship”. I don’t expect UK to have much portal activity unless Tshiebwe/Livingston finalize their departure, as there’s not much UK can offer in terms of role. That being said, UK will have a number of new pieces next season so my focus in the upcoming weeks will be on linking up how those new pieces need to change the on-court results for UK.
I dont know how, but sometimes I miss ur new articles. I happened to look back and found this one.
It has become a very polarizing/emotional subject and almost impossible to have honest convos that pertain to anything Wheeler. I really dislike that he catches the blame when it should have been focused on the people in charge of making this team click.
That said, I cautiously ask how this analysis holds up now that we have 1.5 seasons sample size with Wheeler and a healthier sample size without him and what new revelations can be discussed or old ones confirmed.
How does it affect next year's team if Oscar comes back?
I agree with all the good things you see in Wheeler and we have discussed how he has been thrust into a situation not ideal for his talent.
Specifically, I am really curious how the Reeves/Oscar numbers hold out? You didn't mention this, but it seems a big deal to me if your 2 leading scorers, responsible for 40% of your scoring, are BETTER players with your PG1 off the court! And exactly why was that?
And to be clear, I do not think that is Wheeler's fault- I believe he played hard and played to win every second he was on the court. I do think it was bad roster construction. For some reason at the end of last season, Cal could not see the problem that quietly haunted them the previous season(2021/22) then proceeded to do nothing to fix it in the portal last year!
What fans were seeing on their screen was often bad basketball- even casual fans know they are seeing something not right even if they don't know exactly why, but the observation is real and there is no way to convince them their eyes are lying and all is sunshine and poop-sicles!
Right now, we are seeing panic on social media because it "appears" Cal is "sleeping" on the portal, whether true or not. Everyone has lost confidence in their coach to make the right move (or any move).
IF Oscar comes back, what is the right addition(s) or wrong addition(s) from the portal, having 2 seasons of data with lineups surrounding Oscar.
(or do we even need an addition if Ugo, Reeves, and Oscar return)
Great article as always and thank you for your time, again!