The loss at Tennessee was a unique experience this season for Kentucky fans. For the first time this season, the Wildcats trailed significantly for most of the meaningful part of a game. UK did not have a double digit loss all season before the Vols managed that feat, and had only trailed by double digits for a total of 24 possessions all season.
For a team and fanbase that had largely been riding high, this was a humbling experience. But as Jay-Z once said, “a loss ain’t a loss, it’s a lesson”. What lessons can we learn from this loss, and from Kentucky’s other subpar performances this season?
Classifying the worst games
In order to do any sort of meaningful analysis, we’ll first need to agree on which games represent Kentucky at their worst. I’d propose we include the following:
All 5 losses
The 65-58 win over Texas A&M
There’s one more game I’ll throw in later, but we’ll get to that in a second.
If we accept this group of 6 games, we can classify them into 2 groups:
Games where the offense was bad: Duke, Notre Dame, LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee
Games where the defense was bad: Auburn, Tennessee
Note that the Tennessee game falls into both categories, as Kentucky managed to score their 2nd lowest points per possession and allowed their 2nd highest points per possession all season. Each of the other games falls more or less neatly into a bucket of an offensive problem or a defensive one.
Using this simple categorization, we can see that Kentucky’s offense has been the issue in their worst performances more than their defense has. It seems reasonable to focus in on what common problems occur on that end of the court, so we’ll do that.
Specific factors on offense are a common theme
We’ll now focus in on how Kentucky performed in their worst offensive games in order to understand potential weaknesses. In addition to the 5 games listed above, I’ll throw in the win over Alabama. On a points-per-possession basis this was Kentucky’s 3rd worst game all year, but it was overshadowed by the fact that Alabama scored the 3rd fewest points per possession of any UK opponent this season. If we’re trying to understand common themes among poor offensive performances, this one deserves to be included.
So we’re looking at a 6 game sample for UK: Duke, Notre Dame, LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Tennessee. In those 6 games Kentucky scored 91.5 points per 100 possessions and allowed 95.8. The offense was about 23 pts/100 poss worse than UK’s average, but the defense was only about 4 points worse. Considering the strength of these opponents, it’s pretty impressive that UK didn’t let their offensive woes contribute to a defensive collapse. If anything, UK did enough on defense to keep them in these games. The offense was by far the largest problem.
We can compare UK’s performance in the “Four Factors” popularized by Dean Oliver to identify the biggest contributors to the offensive struggle:
The Wildcats’ effective FG% was 42% in these games, vs 54% for the season
They turned the ball over on 19% of possesions, vs 17% for the season
The grabbed 32% of their own misses, vs 38% for the season
The took 27 FTA per 100 FGA, vs 26 for the season
Right away we can see that Kentucky’s rate of getting free throws wasn’t a problem. Turnovers don’t seem to be a big issue either; of UK’s 6 most turnover prone games this season only 1 (A&M) is in this group.
So, it seems like a lack of offensive rebounding and poor shooting are the key factors in these games. What led to these problems?
Not rebounding their own misses without Oscar
Kentucky is a very good offensive rebounding team, ranking 3rd per KenPom by getting almost 38% of their own misses. Oscar Tshiebwe ranks #1 in offensive rebound rate among all players in the country, and when he is in the game UK gets 39% of their misses. He doesn’t sit often, as he plays about 76% of UK’s minutes, but when he does the offensive rebound rate drops to 34%; that would rank about 30th in the country. Still very good, but not quite as elite.
In UK’s worst performances, their offensive rebounding rate falls to 32%. However, it’s not the fault of Oscar Tshiebwe. When Oscar is in the game UK collects 36% of their own misses, not far off from their elite mark in all games. Oscar himself gets just over 20%, which actually is above his season-long mark. But when Oscar sits, UK isn’t a threat on the offensive glass. They are getting a paltry 20% of their own misses, which would rank in the bottom 15 of all teams if it was UK’s season long mark. Several players see their offensive rebound rate shrink in these games when Oscar sits:
Lance Ware collects 5%, down from an 11% average for the season
Damion Collins grabs 4%, down from a 12% average for the season
Keion Brooks failed to grab a single offensive rebound, compared to grbabing 8.5% for the season
Only Jacob Toppin raised his rate of snaring misses, from 8% for the season to 10% in these games when Oscar sat.
Not getting offensive rebounds is a major issue. For the full season Kentucky scores about 1.2 points per possession following an offensive rebound; even without Oscar in this games UK averages about 1.06. This is consistently more efficient than UK’s halfcourt offense as a whole. In these 6 games UK missed 56 shots when Oscar Tshiebwe was on the bench; if they’d rebounding 36% instead of 20%, they would have had 9 more chances to possess the ball and scored about 10 more points. The Notre Dame loss and the LSU loss were close enough that a couple more points in each of those could have turned the tide.
Sometimes teams are less aggressive going after offensive rebounds in order to get back in transition more effectively. That can be a worthwhile tradeoff, especially since the data shows that UK scores less efficiently on offensive rebounds when Oscar sits. But if UK is doing that in these games, it’s not working. With Oscar in the game and UK going after offensive rebounds, opponents managed to get a transition shots (within 10 seconds) 25% of the time following a defensive rebound, scoring 1.26 pts/poss. With Oscar out and UK getting fewer offensive boards, opponents got a transition shot 22% of the time and scored 1.32 points per possession. If UK was eschewing offensive rebounds for transition defense, it wasn’t working.
Trouble in transition
The other common issue is effective FG% in these games. It’s simple to say that UK is just missing shots, but we can look a bit deeper and see if there’s any common theme to the shots they’re missing.
One glaring pattern is that UK is much worse in transition in these games than they are over the full season, no matter how a possession starts:
Following a steal, UK takes a transition shot 40% of the time with an eFg% of 45%; for the season it’s 50% and 77%
Following a defensive rebound, UK takes a transition shot 36% of the time with an eFG% of 26%; for the full season, it’s 36% and a 52% eFG%
Following an opponent basket, UK takes a transition shot 15% of the time with an eFG% of 41%; for the full season, it’s 17% and a 58% eFG%
UK is trying to run in these games just about as often as they do for the full season, but having much less success. It’s a team-wide issue; Oscar Tshiebwe has an eFg% of 38% in these spots, Sahvir Wheeler 22%, Davion Mintz 35%, Kellan Grady 33%, and TyTy Washington a ghastly 7%. These players normally post eFG% of 50%-70% in transition, but can’t crack the code in the games where UK struggles the most.
The odd thing is that UK would be better off being more patient in most of these situations. I know UK fans have tended to get frustrated when Calipari offenses don’t take transition opportunities, but in their worst performances this season UK has been better in halfcourt offense than in transition. It’s especially true in situations where the defense has time to get back:
Following a steal, UK has an eFG% in halfcourt offense of just 37% in these games; they are better in transition
Following a defensive rebound, UK has an eFG% in halfcourt of 39% in these games; they are better off being patient
Following an opponent basket, UK has an eFG% in halfcourt of 49% in these games; they are better off being patient
It seems odd to suggest given that one of UK’s supposed strengths is their transition game, but I think Kentucky needs to be more judicious in how much they look for transition opportunities. Kentucky ranks 29th in the frequency of fast breaks following opponent scores and 34th following defensive rebounds, but in both cases Kentucky ranks better in efficiency when they run halfcourt offense. I’d suggest that Kentucky temper some of their fast break instincts, especially when their opponents shown a willingness to get back and slown down the Wildcats. Kentucky actually ranks a little better in halfcourt eFG% than in transition eFG% this season, and fast breaking too much actually doesn’t play to their strengths as much as you’d expect.