At this point in the season, we know Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country. We also know UK is consistently very good, as their only 2 stumbles in conference play came 1) on the road, 2) against very good teams, and 3) with the asterisk of injuries to both starting guards. The biggest remaining question for UK is if they can keep up this level of performance or possibly even improve.
To that end, the last three games have raised some question marks. Kentucky has been outrebounded in each of the last 3 games. For a team that at one point was among the top 5 in offensive and defensive rebounding rates in the nation, this is unexpected. One game would be an understandable fluke, but three games in a row looks like a trend.
Despite this slippage in what should be a strength, UK’s results haven’t really slipped. The Wildcats have won the last 3 by 28 combined points, including 2 road games by 21 points. UK’s 2 previous SEC road wins (over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M) were by 18 points total. So how has Kentucky managed to keep winning convincingly despite falling behind on the glass? In this edition of Hoops Insight I try to answer that question, as well as previewing UK’s game against Florida.
Struggling more on one end of the court
UK has been outrebounded over the last 3 games by a margin of 125-114. However, this breaks down quite differently when looking at offensive vs defensive rebounding.
UK has been outrebounded 45-26 on the offensive boards
UK has outrebounded their opponents 88-80 on the defensive boards
UK actually hasn’t been doing very well on the offensive glass in SEC play. They’ve grabbed just under 30% of their own misses, 10th among SEC teams in conference play. In non-conference games UK rebounded less than 30% of their own misses just once, against Notre Dame. In SEC play, they have fallen below 30% in 6 of 11 games including the past 3. UK opponents have focused on keeping Oscar Tshiebwe off the glass, and it’s largely worked.
However, UK has been excellent on the defensive glass. They have rebounded 74% of opponent misses, #1 in the SEC. The last 2 games are the only games all season where UK has rebounded less than 70% of opponent misses, and the Cats had claimed 79% or more in the three games prior to that. Allowing a lot of offensive rebounds just isn’t something they’ve had a problem with.
So if UK’s rebounding has fallen off so much, why haven’t they had more trouble winning?
All offensive rebounds are not created equal
The value of an offensive rebound is pretty obvious: it gives the shooting team another chance to make a basket. Not only that, most offensive rebounds are collected around the basket, leading to closer shots. However, UK and their opponents are having very different degrees of success in converting offensive rebounds into points.
UK has collected 26 offensive rebounds over the last 3 games leading to 17 shots. UK has made 13 of these, for 27 points. Their opponents have collected 45 offensive rebounds leading to 38 shots, and have made just 18 of these for 39 points. 19 additional offensive rebounds have led to just 12 additional points for UK’s opponents. UK opponents are just 10-21 on shots at the rim following an offensive rebound including just 1-4 when going against Lance Ware. This ability for UK to score much more effectively after offensive rebounds has helped limit the damage from getting outrebounded.
An alternative to getting defensive rebounds
The value of a defensive rebound is also pretty obvious: it ends the possession for the offensive team. But there’s another way to accomplish this goal, and that is to get a turnover. In the last 3 games, the only team to grab more defensive rebounds than Kentucky was Vanderbilt (30-22), but Vanderbilt also committed more turnovers (18-10). In fact, in every game Kentucky has either tied or surpassed their opponents in “possession ending plays”, meaning defensive rebounds plus turnovers.
If a possession doesn’t end with a defensive rebound or a turnover, it means the offense scored. In each of the last 3 games UK scored on more possessions than their opponents, despite overall rebound deficits.
Kentucky has quietly been very good at limiting turnovers this season. They have the lowest turnover rate for a UK team since 2017. They also have the highest rate of forcing opponent turnovers for a UK team since 2017, and the 4th highest rate UK has had under Calipari. By winning the turnover battle, UK gives them some margin for error in rebounding. By being very good at securing defensive rebounds and winning the turnover battle, UK forces opponents to have excellent shooting nights in order to beat the Wildcats.
UK’s rebounding disadvantage over the last 3 games hasn’t hurt the Wildcats as much as you’d think because:
Opponents have grabbed more offensive rebounds, but fewer defensive rebounds
Opponents have not converted those offensive rebounds into points at a high rate
UK has forced more turnovers as well as grabbing more defensive rebounds, which means Kentucky has forced more empty possessions (without a score) than their opponents
A peek at the Gators
Florida is 16-8 this season, but seems stuck in mediocrity under Mike White. They are 1-5 in Quad 1 games, with the one win against Ohio State in November. They have a terrible Quad 4 loss against Texas Southern in Gainesville. Their only 2 road wins ar eby 1 over Missouri and by 8 over South Carolina; those are the two lowest rated opponents they’ve played on the road, per KenPom. None of this leads to much belief that the Gators will win in Lexington.
On offense, the Gators bomb away from three. They take the 16th highest proportion of shots from three in the country, and the highest of any major conference team; they just surpassed Alabama for this title in the last week. Florida hits less than 31% from deep, however, so all those threes aren’t doing a lot of damage. Only two Gators hit more than 35% from three (Kowacie Reeves and CJ Felder), and both are bench players.
Florida doesn’t do a particularly good job of getting to the rim or finishing there either. In particular their guards aren’t strong finishers, with only Brandon McKissic hitting above 53% at the rim in halfcourt offense. Tyree Appleby has had a particularly horrific year shooting the ball in halfcourt offense, hitting 33% from three and a ghastly 35% at the rim. I didn’t love the way UK handled Auburn’s guards (who had the same issue), with UK bigs helping on D and allowing lobs to the opposing bigs. This game will be a good test to see how UK will make opposing guards prove they can score.
Florida is also prone to giving away steals, which are particularly damaging. Teams score more points per possession off of steals since they are frequently open-court fast breaks. UK should be able to generate some easy points off of steals to take the pressure off of halfcourt execution.
Team don’t tend to run on Florida very much after defensive rebounds or scores. The Gators are in the top 20 in percentage of fast break attempts allowed after both scores and defensive rebounds. It’s unclear to me if this is just good luck or if Florida is effective at limiting these, but the Gators were not good in this area last year. Kentucky has done some damage this year in transition after rebounds or opponent makes, so it’s worth watching to see what they can do.
This could be another game where Keion Brooks can do well. Over the last 5 games he’s averaging 22.6 pts and 8.7 rebounds per 40 minutes with a 53% effective FG%, hitting 74% at the rim and 42% from midrange. Florida has very little height at the PF position, and the primary defenders there (Anthony Duruji, Kowacie Reeves, Philandrous Fleming) are not strong defenders in the post or on spot ups. Florida is much better at defending isolation and pick and roll, so I’d expect Sahvir Wheeler and Tyty Washington to have less success off the dribble than normal. UK should be able to boss the Gators around inside, if they can stay disciplined and try to create those shots.
The biggest area where Florida could threaten UK is forcing turnovers. The Gators rank 22nd nationally in forcing turnovers, and their big win over Ohio State was powered by the Buckeys turning it over on a staggering 26% of possessions. Wins over Mississippi State and Oklahoma State were similarly dependent on Florida forcing a lot of turnovers. UK hasn’t had a turnover rate higher than 24% all season, and has only been worse than 21% during conference play despite several SEC teams having success forcing turnovers against everyone but the Cats. This feels like a bad matchup for the Gators, whose primary strength may not amount to much vs UK.