UK's doing just fine vs elite defense, plus who is UK's "twin"?
UK had held their own against top SEC defenses, although top offenses cause some issues. That's a fascinating similarity to another program as well....
This season in the SEC, the men’s basketball teams have taken a cue from football and featured some of the stoutest defenses in the nation. 3 teams (Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi State) are in the top 10 in KenPom’s defensive rankings, and 7 are in the top 40. The offenses have been a bit behind, with just Missouri in the top 10 and 5 total in the top 40 (including Kentucky at #14). 3 teams (Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt) are in the top 40 in offense but not defense, while 5 (Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State) fall into the opposite category of being defense-led.
This actually worked out pretty well for Kentucky, as they recorded big wins over most of the standout defenses in the SEC while not performing as well against the elite offenses. I think the reason for that is actually due to the style Kentucky plays, and specifically due to what they’re really good at…and not so good at. The Wildcats aren’t completely unique in this, and one other team, likely to be higher-seeded, has experienced something similar. I’ll offer my thoughts on what is driving that, and how this Mystery Team X offers an interesting blueprint for Kentucky to rethink some things…subscribe to read it all!
Wanna Beat Kentucky? Better Have a Great Offense!
Kentucky has lost 10 games this season as of this writing. 8 of them were to legitimate teams, and 2 were baffling losses to South Carolina and Georgia. For the rest of this article we’re ignoring those two inexplicable losses, ok? THEY NEVER HAPPENED. At least for the purposes of this analysis.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s focus in on how Kentucky performed against teams that are ranked in the top 40 in either defense or offense per KenPom. I picked top 40 as a cutoff because that’s about how many NCAA Tournament teams are “at-large” quality.
Against teams with a top 40 offense, UK went 2-7
Against teams with a top 40 defense, UK went 8-5
WAIT A SECOND! That’s 12 losses! But we are only focusing on UK’s 8 legitimate losses! That’s because UK lost to 4 teams who rank in the top 40 in both offense and defense: UCLA, Alabama, Kansas, and Michigan State.
In fact, just about the only way a team could beat Kentucky this season was to have a top 40 offense. Let me show UK’s record again, but splitting out teams into 3 categories: top 40 offense only, top 40 defense only, or top 40 in both.
Kentucky was pretty much able to have their way with elite defenses this season, but had nothing for elite offenses. Kentucky was an offense-first team (14th in KenPom offense) with a defense that was largely just OK (66th currently per KenPom), but based on these numbers it seems like when it was strength on strength the Wildcats came out ahead. This wasn’t the case for every top offense, this season however. Here are a couple more teams that finished in the top 10 in offense, both from the Big East:
UConn’s results look similar to Kentucky’s, where they struggled more with elite offenses than defenses, while Marquette was pretty similar across the board (and even maybe a bit better against top offenses). Unlike Kentucky, UConn has a very strong defense (12th in KenPom currently) to go with a top-10 offense, while Marquette’s #7 offense was paired with a Kentucky-like #68 defense. So why do UConn and Kentucky both fair much better against elite defenses than Marquette? I think the answer has something to do with why each is good on offense.
UK and UConn: Offensive rebounding twins?
Both Kentucky and UConn’s elite offenses are powered primarily by offensive rebounding, while Marquette has completely different strengths:
While Marquette is a stronger offense on balance, it may be the case that what they do is tougher to do against elite defenses. The very best defenses tend to focus on either forcing turnovers at a high rate or challenging shots (usually via shot blocking). Comparatively few elite defenses get there via defensive rebounding. Among the top 10 in KenPom’s defensive ratings, 9 rank in the top 31 in eFG% defense, 5 in turnover rate, but just 2 are in the top 100 in defensive rebounding rate.
Kentucky and UConn are the only 2 teams in the top 20 in KenPom offensive efficiency who are in the top 50 in offensive rebounding but not in any other of the “four factors” (eFG%, turnover %, FT rate are the others). This seems to give them a competitive advantage against elite defenses. On the flip side, teams like Marquette who forge their elite offense by getting quality shots and holding onto the ball can outperform other top offenses at their own game, but can struggle a bit when they run up against teams designed to stop them.
You’ll notice from the chart above that both UConn and Marquette have winning records against top 40 offenses (7-5 and 8-4), while Kentucky lags behind at 2-7. That’s where I believe UConn is again a fascinating comparison…
UK Should Have a Better Offense Than UConn
I showed you UK and UConn’s rankings in each of the offensive four factors above; here are the actual values of each:
UConn shoots better than Kentucky, but turns it over more often too. Offensive rebounding and FT rate are very similar. Basically, UConn’s shooting is the reason their offense is ranked higher. But there’s an odd phenomenon at play when you look at how each team shoots from the three key zones (at the rim, midrange, and from three).
UConn has a higher effective FG%, but Kentucky outshoots them from every area on the floor! The reason is the distribution of these shots. UConn takes a higher portion of their shots at the rim and from three, while Kentucky shoots more often from midrange. Because UConn is taking more of the high value shots, their effective FG% is 2 points higher than UK’s. In fact, if UK had the same FG% from each area but changed their shot distribution to match UConn’s, the Wildcats would have an effective FG% of 54.8%…3.5% higher than they do. That would be worth a little over 3 points per 100 possessions, and would put Kentucky’s offense at #3 nationally. With the #3 offense and #66 defense, UK would basically be Baylor or Marquette, and Bracket Matrix currently projects them as a 2-seed (Baylor) and 3-seed (Marquette). Imagine that!
UK’s SEC Tournament schedule doesn’t break very well for them, given the data above. The other 4 teams who are top-40 offenses are Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Alabama and Missouri. UK’s road to a possible SEC title could very well lead to them playing 3 of those teams in succession, with Vandy the #6 seed, A&M the #2 seed, and Alabama the #1 seed. It would be quite an accomplishment for UK to take out 2 of those teams to make the title game, and that would be a strong sign that Kentucky really is figuring things out…even against strong offenses. Past the SEC Tournament, this trend is something to watch come NCAA Tournament time…not just for Kentucky, but maybe UConn too?