UK needs to stop blaming shooters
Debunking the narratives around UK's loss to Kansas State
I debated whether to write this article or not, because I’m sure a large segment of the Kentucky fanbase is hurting right now after a disappointing 2nd round NCAA exit. Ultimately I decided that it’s more important to share an idea that I think is important: the postgame narrative about why Kentucky lost to Kansas State is largely flawed. I think it does a major disservice to the players, fans, and even coaching staff to stop at “Kentucky missed shots”. To put a finer point on it, Antonio Reeves and Jacob Toppin don’t deserve any more blame than any other UK player or coach for this loss. I’m sure plenty of people will see “2 for 22” and stop right there, but there’s much more to it than that. I’m hoping I can convince at least a few of you, and create a little deeper understanding about how Kentucky can “fix things” going forward.
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In my preview of the game, here’s what I identified as the likely keys:
All three of these ending up creating separation between the eventual winner and loser.
Kentucky’s empty possessions
Kentucky committed 16 turnovers to just 8 for Kansas State. That’s 8 additional possessions where Kentucky lost a chance to score. Given UK’s propensity for extending possessions by offensive rebounding, a turnover is obviously much more harmful than a missed shot. Interestingly enough, Kansas State didn’t really capitalize on the turnovers to score themselves. By my play by play data, K-State went just 2-8 on possessions following a UK turnover, plus 6-10 on free throws, for 10 total points on 16 turnovers. UK Scored 8 points off the 8 Kansas State turnovers. It was really more about UK having more possessions where they didn’t score than it was about giving Kansas State good chances to score.
Free throws weren’t a huge factor
Maybe referees swallow the whistle a bit more in the NCAA Tournament, but UK didn’t really rack up the free throws at a higher rate than K-State like I expected. Until UK purposefully fouled in the final minute, both teams were taking 1 FTA for every 4 FGA. In each of Kansas State’s last 7 losses, their opponents drew free throws more often than UK did yesterday. Recent UK wins over Providence, Arkansas, and Tennessee all featured Kentucky taking significantly more free throws than opponents (81 to 59), but that didn’t happen this game. I can’t fault Kentucky too much for this because there’s a good bit of this that’s dependent on referees.
Both sets of Wildcats shot poorly (away from the rim)
The primary reason that Kentucky shouldn’t point to shooting as the culprit for this loss is that Kansas State shot just as poorly as UK, at least on everything except layups/dunks. I download the play by play data for each game for my free stats engine, and per the PBP UK was 3-13 from midrange and 4-20 from three, for 7-33 away from the rim (21.2%). Kansas State was 1-7 from midrange and 5-21 from three, for 6-28 (21.4%). Poor shooting away from the rim cost both teams in this game.
Where Kansas State benefitted is that they shot better at the rim. The purple Wildcats went 20-26 at the rim (77%) while the royal blue ones shot 19-30 (63%). Allowing 77% shooting at the rim when your opponent takes half of their shots there makes it really tough to win, and I’d point to the difference in defending the rim as a bigger separator between the two teams.
The narrative around missing shots
Missing shots is obviously worse than making them, but I am bothered a little bit about the fascination John Calipari has with addressing shooting in postgame conferences. Because shooting is tracked in the box score, it serves as a shiny object to attract attention (especially three point shooting). However, basketball isn’t played like H.O.R.S.E. where you lose your turn if you miss a shot. You’re allowed to rebounded your own shot, and Kentucky is as good at that as just about anyone in the country. Kentucky led the country in offensive rebound rate, getting just slightly under 40% of their own misses; the national average was about 10% worse.
A missed shot hurts Kentucky less than an average team, because Kentucky rebounds 10% more of their own misses.
John Calipari even semi-acknowledged this after the Texas A&M win this season, saying post-game “our game is we can shoot poorly and still win.” That’s why you build a team focused around an offensive rebounding force, so that you can toss up shots and have a good chance of scoring even if you miss! Other teams don’t have that luxury.
For example, Antonio Reeves missed 14 shots against Kansas State. Kentucky rebounded 7 of those! Those offensive rebounds erase misses, absent any confidence boost that comes from making a shot. You can believe in that boost, or believe that;’s hokey, but the only practical effect on the game from those 7 misses was that Kentucky used up some clock. Unfortunately, UK only scored 2 baskets after those 7 offensive rebounds, so they didn’t capitalize on the rebounds at a high enough rate.
I was disheartened by Calipari’s choice to use most of the postgame against Kansas State to talk about missing shots. First, that creates a public perception that Reeves and Toppin were to blame for the loss. For a fanbase that reveres their coach and likely won’t find other outlets to offer any contrasting commentary on the loss, that’s going to have a big impact. Weirdly, Calipari mentioned the shooting as the major issue, but then said not to blame Antonio….well, which is it? The kid didn’t mean to miss the shots, but I don’t think the average UK fan is going to be that nuanced. Second, it creates no sense of accountability for anything else that happened. Calipari briefly mentioned turnovers, but largely in the context that 11 first half turnovers hurt UK; his conclusion was that they did well in the 2nd half because they only had 5. Lastly, his comments create a narrative that Kentucky is powerless to overcome bad shooting simply because it’s a cosmic fact that everyone is powerless against that…but it’s not true. Again, Kansas State shot just as poorly on jump shots as UK did. Michigan State shot 2-16 on threes and upset a 2 seed. Arkansas went 3-15 and knocked off Kansas. Texas shot 1-14 and won. Those teams overcame these shooting performances by doing other stuff well. Consistently, Calipari’s postgame comments (especially after losses) would lead an observer to believe that Kentucky is doomed to lose by missed shots, when in fact Kentucky should be able to overcome missed shots better than any other team.
This is why it’s perplexing that UK doesn’t shoot many threes, because the reward for a made three is 1.5x as good as any other shot, but the risk is largely the same. Kentucky’s rate of rebounding missed threes this season was virtually the same as midrange shots at 39% (although lower than shots at the rim). UK opponents didn’t score at meaningfully different rates when they rebounded UK’s threes vs midrange shots. If missing shots is less of a penalty for your team than others, you should be taking the highest value shots possible to take advantage of this.
What comes next?
There are a lot of roster decision to be made in the coming days and weeks, and I have no idea how that will shake out. Kentucky has a terrific recruiting class coming in, and some of this season’s bench players could improve the frontcourt defense considerably. The Wildcats need to figure out their philosophy of how they establish advantages, and really lean into that. The last 2 years have made it pretty clear that it’s can’t be just rebounding, to the detriment of everything else. If it’s going to be rebounding, don’t complain about missing shots…treat those as opportunities to rebound more. Make it your mantra that teams have to outshoot you by a considerable amount to win, because your team won’t stop until they get the ball in the basket. If one player misses shots, the other 4 need to be there to cover for him. Give players the freedom to know that if they miss, they won’t be the first item the coach mentions in his postgame preser.