Having Oscar Tshiebwe on your college basketball team is never a problem. He’s the best rebounder in college basketball and an effective post scorer. These are good things! He also uses his quick, strong hands to come up with a lot of steals for a big man.
The problem comes when there’s not an honest evaluation of strengths and weaknesses, along with a larger accountability for the results that can be directly traced back to his play. Over the past 2 seasons Kentucky has won several games specifically because Oscar Tshiebwe was on their team.He absolutely destroyed Georgia and Yale this season, and Kentucky likely doesn’t win against Tennessee without his rebounding and interior scoring. Tshiebwe is not a strong interior defender, and a lack of rim protection definitely cost Kentucky in games last season (Arkansas, Saint Peter’s) and this season (Michigan State). Kentucky’s defense around the rim has become a soft target for opponents.
UK’s choice to focus their offense on a post player also has ramifications on offense. Creating good shots for others has never been a strength for Tshiebwe, and the hyper-focus on getting him involved through pait touches keeps other players from being able to create quality shots for themselves. Last season’s offense was less focused on Tshiebwe post-ups, and the difference is showing in results on offense.
For premium subscribers, I’ll explain why the issues with Oscar’s defense didn’t just creep up this season…but they have become worse. I’ll also look at how Oscar’s role on offense has changed, and where teammates have been impacted.
The defensive issues are not a new phenomenon
The defense at the rim hasn’t gotten worse since last year. Last season UK opponents took 33.5% of their shots at the rim and hit 58.9%; this season it’s 35% and 58.2%. Those FG% numbers put UK’s rim defense about 185th in the country, just below average. This season’s numbers are even more shocking when looking at non-conference vs SEC, as UK held non-con opponents to 52% at the rim this season; last season, that was 57%. The difference is UK’s backup bigs this season (largely Onyenso) held non-con opponents to 48% at the rim, while they rang up 58% with Tshiebwe in.
This season UK’s 2 point defense is the worst it’s been in SEC games under Calipari. Wildcat opponents in the SEC hit 53% of their twos (11th in league), and 64% at the rim. Last year UK allowed 50% shooting on twos (7th) and 57% at the rim. Kentucky was #1 in the SEC in 2pt FG% allowed in 2021 and 2020. The last 2 seasons, UK has simply not been up to their usual standard in defending inside the arc.
The clear difference in 2pt FG% is that UK has slipped in blocking shots. UK’s block rate the last 2 seasons are the 2 lowest since Calipari took the helm. This season Kentucky blocks just under 11% of opponent twos, but even that’s inflated by earlier season results when Onyenso got some time. Kentucky blocks less than 10% of twos in SEC play; below the last 2 seasons Kentucky was never below 13%.
I went back and watched some of last season’s games on YouTube, and it’s pretty clear that there were issues at that time. As the data above suggests, UK wasn’t very good defending the rim…here are a couple examples:
The interesting thing I noticed is that opponents weren’t putting Oscar Tshiebwe in pick and roll much at all. When they did, UK could contain the ballhandler but got burned by rollers:
Kentucky was good last year containing pick and roll ballhandlers, but were vulnerable to the roll man. Per Synergy, UK allowed just 0.60 points per possession to ballhandlers but 1.02 to the roll man.
This season, Kentucky has had Oscar Tshiebwe drop more often in pick and roll coverage and it’s not working at all. UK is worse guarding ballhandlers, allowing 0.75 points per possession, and also worse guarding roll men (1.15). Teams are running these actions more frequently since seeing Missouri, LSU and Alabama have success there. Since the Tennessee win, UK opponents have averaged 20 pick and roll possessions per game and scored 0.99 points per possession. The only way you can get away with that is if you’re making a choice to stick with shooters or rebounders and eliminate catch-and-shoot or putbacks; Saint Mary’s gives up an equivalent number of points on pick and roll but gives up only 3.5 unguarded catch and shoot threes and 2.5 putbacks per game. Kentucky is giving up 10 unguarded catch and shot threes and 4 putbacks per game. The issue is that Kentucky has players help off of shooters to stymie the pick and roll, but that leaves shooters wide open (and doesn’t help the pick and roll defense).
Last season UK gave up 7 unguarded catch and shoot threes and a little over 4 putbacks, so the biggest issue is UK having to help off of shooters more often this season. That’s leading to opponents hitting 33% from deep vs 30.8% last season. It’s all related, as Tshiebwe is not a strong rim protector and UK is scrambling to cover for that deficiency. The biggest difference I can see is that opponents have adjusted and are attacking a weakness that was present last year, but not attacked as much.
An impact on offense, too
Something that isn’t getting as much attention right now is the way Kentucky uses Oscar Tshiebwe on offense. Kentucky runs a LOT of post-ups; 7.3 per game for the season. Tshiebwe is among the elite in the country at scoring on them, ranking in the 85th percentile. These aren’t very efficient shots, however; Oscar hits just 52%….and he’s one of the best! That’s because these shots are 100% guarded. When Oscar takes shots off of a cut, or a putbacks, or as a roll man he hits 57% to 65% as these tend to be more open. But this season UK has Oscar posting up much more than last season, and his FG% has dropped as a result. Last season 34% of Oscar’s halfcourt offense shots were post-ups, and this season that’s jumped to 43%. Last season he took about 2/3 as many shots in post-ups as putbacks, rolls, and cuts combined; this season the two are equal.
This is more post-ups than Kentucky used to run. In 2020 with junior year Nick Richards, UK ran just over 5 post-ups per game. That season Richards took 107 shots at the rim, and UK’s primary guards (Quickley/Hagans/Maxey) took 167. In 2021, BJ Boston (62) took just 1 less shot at the rim than Isaiah Jackson (63, team lead). But this season, Oscar Tshiebwe has more shots at the rim (117) than Wheeler/Wallace/Fredrick/Reeves combined (100)! This was the case last season too, where Oscar took 168 shots at the rim and Wheeler/Washington/Grady/Mintz took 145. That’s fine when your big man hits 76% of his shots there (as Oscar did), but when he dips down to 66% (like this year) it’s not as useful. This is directly because UK is forcing the ball into Oscar on post-ups more, as opposed to letting him score off of secondary actions like cuts, putbacks, or as a roll man. The lack of driving opportunities for UK’s guards is likely causing UK’s free throw rae to decline; the last 2 seasons UK has drawn free throws at the lowest rate of the Calipari tenure. The main issue is the guards, who are drawing free throw well below the rates of previous UK teams. Even the 2021 team with Devin Askew had guards who got to the line more than these Cats.
UK’s team has largely been built around Oscar Tshiebwe, which can be a perfectly good thing if managed properly. The main issues are:
His defensive shortcomings are being exposed, and UK is compromising their defensive structure to try to offset this (unsuccessfully)
UK has made him the focal point of the offense even more than before, and it’s limiting the involvement of UK’s guards in getting to the rim
I don’t know what Kentucky can do to solve #1, honestly, except bench Oscar. I don’t think he’s getting any better in the next handful of games, and any scheme to minimize his liability just opens up other shots. We’re already seeing that this year as UK has tried to help more and been burnt.
To point #2, UK need to reduce the post-ups and give more opportunities for Wallace, Reeves, and Wheeler to drive to the basket. Wallace is hitting over 70% at the rim in halfcourt, Wheeler was over 62% last season, and Reeves was at 60% at Illinois State. Let the guards cook, let Oscar finish around the rim, and hope you outscore opponents.
There’s a reason NBA teams don’t put a high value on bigs who don’t block shots and don’t shoot. When a well-run offense finds a weak spot on defense, it is ruthless, and big men who can only operate out of the post do so to the detriment of ballhandlers. Some college teams are starting to recognize this; hopefully one day soon Kentucky will, too.