The Wildcats draw a fascinating matchup
Providence is a fairly unique team, and UK will need to be sharp
Kentucky really needs an NCAA Tournament win, preferably two, this weekend. Over the past 3 seasons, UK is 1-4 in postseason play. That 1 win was a 3 seeded UK over 11 seeded Vanderbilt in the 2022 SEC Tournament, while UK was the higher seeded team in 3 of their 4 losses. This weekend is a chance to wipe away the residue of those losses and get back to establishing the Wildcats as a Real March Team.
The Cats were matched against #11 seed Providence, which is fascinating for a variety of reasons:
Obviously, the Bryce Hopkins Factor. Hopkins moved off the UK bench to a Providence glow-up, making First Team All-Big East.
Providence is the 2nd highest rated #11 seed per KenPom’s ratings, coming in at #45 (1 spot behind Nevada).
The Friars have a very similar analytics profile to UK, just a little worse. They have the #16 offense and #107 offense, with their offense carried by offensive rebounding and free throws. UK is the #14 offense and #75 defense, led by offensive rebounding (and of late, free throws).
There are a lot of factors at play here, some of which appear very good for UK and some of which appear pretty bad.
The Good: UK vs similar teams, and recent trends
While Kentucky has struggled against top 40 offenses, most top offenses aren’t driven by offensive rebounding. UK did play one top offense that relies on offensive rebounding and free throws: Texas A&M. The Aggies are #6 nationally in offensive rebounding and #3 in free throw rate; UK held them to 4 offensive rebounds and won comfortably. Providence is a better shooting team than Texas A&M, but UK didn’t have a problem shutting off the offensive rebounding faucet. Tennessee was the #49 offense, driven also by offensive rebounding, and Kentucky beat them twice while again dominating the rebounding battle. I think Kentucky can keep Providence well under their offensive rebounding average, which puts a lot of pressure on the Friars to shoot well.
Providence has also been slumping a bit more of late. They’ve lost 4 of 5, with the lone win against a bad Georgetown team. Since Feb 1, BartTorvik.com ranks the Friars as the 55th best team among the 68 tourney squads; Kentucky is 18th in that time frame. The Friars’ rebounding and free throw rate have taken a hit over the last month, while they’ve largely avoided committing turnovers. Kentucky has been surging in both rebounding and drawing free throws in that time, so the Wildcats are getting better in exactly the areas where Providence is slipping.
The Bad: UK’s inconsistency, and Providence at their best
Kentucky has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Haslametrics.com ranks UK 351st in consistency of results this season, and the fan base has felt the fatigue of a roller coaster ride. Some of this is likely due to matchups, but there’s not a lot of evidence this season that Kentucky can really buckle down and play at their best against good offensive teams. BartTorvik.com assigns a game score (on a scale of 100) to each team’s game, and UK was all over the map this season. 10 times in SEC play UK’s Game Score exceeded 90, but 8 times they were under 73 against conference foes. For a point of comparison, Providence had only 3 conference Game Scores under 73 and 8 above 90. Kentucky can do a lot at their best, but are too frequently coming up short of that.
While I mentioned above that Providence has been slumping since Feb 1, they were tremendous before that. In a tough Big East conference, Providence racked up at least 1 win against every foe except Xavier. Even then, they did take the Musketeers to overtime. Providence won their first matchup against every conference team except Xavier and Creighton, so the first time through the conference worked very well for the Friars. Are their February struggles possibly a product of opponents being familiar with them? Did opponents adjust the second time through? Or are the Friars recent struggles mor ereflective of who they are? It’s impossible to know, but there’s a very real possibility that Providence is a bit better when they play a team for the first time.
The ¯\_(ツ)_/¯: Providence’s defense, and playing away from home
Ed Cooley is a highly respected coach who’s had a lot of success getting creative on offense and defense. The Friars primarily play man-to-man defense, and don’t really do a great job at it, but they will throw in a matchup zone or a press occasionally. The zone is more used a rare change of pace and has only featured in a handful of games for even 10 possessions, but Providence will throw out a press for a dozen possessions a game or so. The results are mixed, however. The zone defense has forced turnovers at a high clip but opponents have torched the nets from deep, but the outside shooting has been so good that opponents may be getting a bit lucky. More relevant to Kentucky is that Providence has been a worse rebounding team in zone, but has forced turnovers following offensive rebounds at a high rate. If the Friars are able to swarm Oscar Tshiebwe and force a turnover or two after a rebound, that could be a big help. If Providence’s zone just leaves holes for Tshiebwe, Toppin, and others to get easy putbacks, then it’s going to dig a hole for the Friars.
Neither Providence or Kentucky has been very good away from home this season. The only top-100 teams Providence beat away from home this season are Seton Hall and Villanova, but they also only lost twice away from home by more than 10 points (UConn, TCU). Kentucky has beaten Michigan, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida and Arkansas away from Rupp, but lost at Georgia and have larger losing margins in their road/neutral losses. Bart Torvik ranks Kentucky 30th and Providence 37th in away/neutral site games. Again, Kentucky’s best and worst are so different from each other in these games that I’m not sure what to expect.
Unique Risks Providence presents:
Good shot selection: The Friars take about 2x as many shots at the rim as they do from midrange, and finish at the rim well. Devin Carter in particular gets to the rim well for a guard, and will put pressure on UK’s lack of rim protection.
Forcing outside shots with zone: Providence opponents get to the rim infrequently against their zone, although they have had luck shooting from deep. Kentucky may have trouble getting the ball inside when the Friars break out the zone.
Unique Opportunities Providence presents:
Poor/infrequent pick and roll offense: Providence doesn’t run much pick and roll, and their guards and bigs aren’t very good at scoring out of it. This has been a major issue for UK this season (although less lately since they’ve been more aggressive at it). While Providence will spread the floor, UK should be able to keep Oscar Tshiebwe away from guarding ballhandlers.
Ugly late-clock offense: Providence is not very effective at scoring late in the shot clock. If this is a close game late, the Friars offense will likely look pretty ugly. Assuming they don’t hit some lucky shots, UK should keep Providence from scoring effectively down the stretch.
The major thing that sticks with me is Kentucky’s continuing defensive issues this season, which have come to the forefront when they play strong offenses. Kentucky’s wins against strong offenses have usually come accompanied by some defensive shooting luck, which didn’t hold up in later game. Texas A&M was 3-16 from three, Tennessee was 9-48 from three across 2 games, and Vandy was 12-38 on twos in the game UK took off them. However, it does feel like Kentucky should hold up well against what Providence does on offense. The biggest X factor for me is how Kentucky scores, and especially if the Wildcats get turnover prone against the Friars’ zone and press. UK should get enough offensive rebounds to offset cold shooting, but turnovers could completely negate that.