The Rob and Reed Express is powering Kentucky
The freshman guard duo are off to mind-blowing starts and are powering a surprising amount of Kentucky's success
Hi, it’s been a while. I know I put the newsletter on hold this season as I started law school, but a combination of factors made me want to put together this very article you’re reading now. First, I am on winter break from classes for a couple more weeks. Second, I still have some time to follow college basketball and something amazing has happened: Kentucky has maybe the two best freshmen in the country. That’s not exactly a wildly novel development, but there are a couple of interesting twists. First, the two freshmen are the two who were least-heralded (relatively speaking) in the five-man class. Second, the two aren’t just excellent individual players, they are amazingly fun to watch.
To be clear, I’m talking about Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard. In a Kentucky freshman class featuring the #3, 4, 6, 16 and 33 recruits in the RSCI top 100, Dillingham and Sheppard were the latter two. At most schools, recruits of their caliber are the headliners but at Kentucky they were expected to be “nice to have” and thought of as depth pieces before the season. They have combined to start just 1 game each on a deep Wildcat team, but they have so far outshone their more pedigreed classmates and are each on the short list for the top newcomers in the nation.
They aren’t just doing well for freshmen, or compared to their preseason expectations. Dillingham and Sheppard are each having such a profound impact in multiple ways that their seasons can be fairly described as “historic”. What’s more, the majority of success Kentucky is having this season can fairly be traced to time when the two of them share the court. Let’s dig into the Rob and Reed Express!
The shifty, skinny playmaker
Rob Dillingham arrived at Kentucky with a reputation as a ballhandling dynamo who might drive John Calipari crazy with turnovers and wild shot selection. His stats from Overtime Elite back that up, as he averaged 21 points and 7 assists per 40 minutes, along with 5 turnovers, 33% shooting on twos and 32% on threes.
Dillingham has been much more than that as a Wildcat. He did add some weight and strength over the summer, but he’s also largely avoided all of the expected pitfalls. He’s retained the playmaking, assisting on almost 33% of his teammates baskets when he’s on the court and averaging 8 assists per 40 minutes. Dillingham takes on a huge role (29% usage rate) and has been a dynamite scorer, putting up 25 points per 40 min (tied with Antonio Reeves for team lead). But he’s done so efficiently, hitting 48% on twos and a blistering 45% on threes. Dillingham has also avoided turnovers, with just 19 vs 54 assists. If that wasn’t stunning enough, Dillingham has also collected the 3rd most defensive rebounds on the team. He’s listed at 6’3”, 176 pounds, and is grabbing almost 16% of opponent misses….that’s a number more typical of a power forward, and would be a record for a Calipari guard at Kentucky (well, except for one teamate this year…but more on that in a moment).
Dillingham’s combination, of playmaking, outside shooting, and rebounding is almost unparalleled. Here’s the list of men’s D-1 players in the last 15 years who have averaged 24 pts/40 min, hit 40%+ from three on 4 att/game, with an assist rate of 30%, and an assist/turnover ratio of 2.5:1 or better and a defensive rebound rate of 15% or better:
Rob Dillingham (2023-24)
Denzel Valentine, Michigan State (2015-16)
This was Valentine’s senior season where he won Big Ten Player of the Year and was named an All American. Dillingham is there with 12 games under his belt. His stats might dip a bit in conference play, but Dillingham managed to move up from high school to high-major college basketball, retain all of his best traits, and massively improve all of his weaknesses. That’s a sign of a special type of player who puts in a lot of work to be great. Rob would clearly be the biggest story of Kentucky’s season, but he’s got competition for that…
The legacy who keeps making plays
Reed Sheppard is the son of Jeff Sheppard and Stacy Reed, who both starred at Kentucky in the late 1990’s. He was a notable in-state recruit for years but emerged on the national scene late in his high school career, more than earning his spot as part of Kentucky’s top-ranked recruiting class. It was expected that he would be a fan favorite who might develop over a 4 year career into a quality contributor.
Sheppard has blown past those expectations, to put it mildly. He leads the nation in effective FG% per KenPom, as he combines 60% shooting on twos and 56% on threes. He also ranks 10th in the nation in steal rate, as he combines terrific instincts with quick hands. Sheppard’s playmaking has been strong, assisting on 25% of teammate baskets with 52 asists to just 19 turnovers. Like Dillingham, Sheppard doesn’t limit his impact to traditional guard stats; he’s 2nd on Kentucky in blocked shots, total defensive rebounds, and defensive rebound rate.
Sheppard is producing at a level that just hasn’t been seen. Here’s the list of men’s D-1 players in the last 15 years who have hit 60% on twos and 50% on threes on at least 4 3PA per game with a steal rate above 5%:
Reed Sheppard
If we drop the thresholds to 55% on twos and 45% on threes, the list is:
Reed Sheppard
If we drop the steal rate to 4%, the list is:
Reed Sheppard
Only one high-major players in the last 15 years has even hit 50% on twos and 40% on threes on 4+ 3PA/game with a steal rate above 4%: D’Moi Hodge of Missouri last season. Hodge is WELL behind Sheppard in assists, rebounds, and blocks. The only player who does what Sheppard does is…well, Reed Sheppard.
Sheppard’s all-around impact is so strong that Basketball Reference places him 4th in the entire nation in Box Plus-Minus, which measures play impact across all box score stats. This places Sheppard in the conversation for the most impactful players in the entire country, alongside players like Purdue’s Zach Edey and Clemson’s PJ Hall….that’s All American territory! The only real “knock” against Sheppard has been his tendency to defer. He takes only about 17% of UK’s shots when on the court, despite his otherworldly efficiency.
The truly amazing thing is what happens when Kentucky plays both of them together…..
All aboard the Rob and Reed Express!
Excluding garbage time, Kentucky has outscored its opponents by +208 points in 814 possessions this season. This breaks down as:
+157 in 348 possessions with Rob and Reed both in
+73 in 305 possessions with 1 of Rob or Reed in
-22 in 161 possessions with neither in
When Rob and Reed are in together, Kentucky’s offense goes into hyperdrive. The Wildcats score 128.7 points per 100 possessions, better than BYU’s nation-leading mark. The Cats have an effective FG% of 61% (57% on twos, 45% on threes), which would rank #1 in the nation. They turn the ball over on just 12% of possessions, which would also rank #1 in the nation. Kentucky takes 41% of their initial shots in transition, which would rank 3rd in the nation. Every single one of these stats is better than UK averages overall, and Kentucky is ranked as the #8 offense (as of this writing) by KenPom.
The real value of the Rob and Reed Express isn’t just their impact on offense, however. They rank #1 and #2 on the team in steals and #2 and #3 in defensive rebounds. With the two of them in, UK forces turnovers on 21% of possessions and collects 75% of opponent misses….both are higher than UK’s season-long averages. UK also limits opponents to taking just 17% of their shots in transition with Rob and Reed in. These factors result in opponents scoring just 84 points per 100 possessions with Rob and Reed in the game.
Because Sheppard and Dillingham contribute with defense and rebounding, UK has had success playing smallball lineups with them. About 45% of their time has come with Tre Mitchell at center, and those lineups have scored a nuclear 134 pts/100 possessions while holding opponents to just 87. The defensive rebounding has held up just fine thanks to Rob and Reed’s contributions, and opponents have posted an effetcive Fg% of just 42%. Lineups with Mitchell at center have been outscored when Rob and Reed are on the bench, giving up 112 pts/100 possessions.
The playmaking ability of Rob and Reed has helped unlock their teammates’ scoring, too. Their ability to beat defenders off the dribble creates openings for shooters, and their pinpoint passing capitalizes on those openings. Take a look at their teammates’ 3 point shooting with and without Rob and Reed in the game:
That’s a staggering difference! Rob and Reed aren’t just dynamite shooters themselves, they turn their teammates into shooters too. The effect is most pronounced with Antonio Reeves. Reeves is at his best as an outside shooting threat who can attack closeouts, but when Rob and Reed aren’t in the game Reeves has to take on more self-creation than is probably good for him. Just look at how his scoring jumps when he can play off of dynamic creators:
With Rob and Reed: 23% usage; 67% on twos and 64% on threes; 28.2 pts/40 min
Without Rob and Reed: 25% usage; 41% on twos and 33% on threes; 19.8 pts/40 min
Can Kentucky use them more?
Kentucky has a deep roster this season, which is mostly why Sheppard averages 26 minutes per game and Dillingham 23. However, it does seem like Kentucky needs to do away with any minutes where neither one is in the game. That’s going to be tough to do with neither one starting, but Kentucky has been consistently struggling to separate from teams until inserting Sheppard and Dillingham. Rob and Reed tend to enter the game about 5 minutes into each half. Here’s how UK has performed opening halves without Rob and Reed, and in the subsequent 5 minute segments with Rob and/or Reed:
Kentucky is dominating teams during the opening stretches of halves when they have one or both of the Rob & Reed Express in the game, but is a net negative when both are on the bench. That’s pretty compelling evidence that UK really depends on Rob & Reed.
There’s one question, though: what the heck happened against UNC Wilmington? With DJ Wagner injured, either Rob or Reed was in for every second of that game and UK had their worst game of the year. Both Sheppard (-9) and Dillingham (-7) had a negative plus/minus for the only time all season. There is an argument that the two were overextended in the bigger role somehow, but nothing else outside of that game even hints that might be a problem. Rob & Reed lineups have outscored every opponent, even when opponents have 4 or 5 starters on the court; for example, the Rob & Reed Express posted a +19 in 19 possessions against UNC’s starters.
It seems like there was just a bit of bad shooting luck against UNCW. For example, UK took 16 of their 35 initial (non-offensive rebound) shots against UNCW in transition with Rob & Reed in; they went 6-16 on these including 0-5 on threes. Antonio Reeves only got 3 shot attempts up when playing alongside both of Rob & Reed, and zero threes. As a team, UK only took 17 threes that game and 5 were from Justin Edwards (a 26% shooter on the season, he went 0-5). Dillingham was 1-9 from the floor, including his worst games of the year shooting at the rim (1-3), from midrange (0-4), and from three (0-2). Finally, UK only got Tre Mitchell 5 FGA and 9 total scoring possessions (5 FGA + 4 shooting fouls) in 36 minutes against an undersized team; that was probably an error in hindsight. With a combination of unusually bad shooting in transition, Dillingham’s worst shooting game by far, and unusually diminshed roles for Reeves and Mitchell, UK didn’t have the firepower to win. Given that none of those factors have repeated, I think that game is truly more of a fluke than a signifier that there is anything fundamentally broken about playing either Rob or Reed more than they usually do.
I don’t know the dynamics behind the scenes for Kentucky, but the data is VERY clear that UK is a massively more effective team when focused around Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard. I’d like to see UK move Sheppard into the starting lineup in place of Justin Edwards and start Sheppard, Wagner, Reeves, Mitchell and Bradshaw. I’d also like to see Sheppard and Dillingham play about half the game together, and for any minutes where mitchell is at center to exclusively come with both Rob & Reed in the game (and probably Thiero too, given his rebounding skill). UK has an absolutely elite offense powered by the Rob & Reed Express, and in my opinion all other rotation decisions should be made to compliment that duo. That would lead to Kentucky likely having the best offense in the country; the goal would be to be as good as possible on defense while not compromising the offense.