The "how" of UK's offense and defense
I use analytics to illustrate Kentucky's offensive and defensive strategies
In my last article, I broke down UK’s offensive performance into 2 components: shot volume and shot making. Historically Kentucky excels at creating shot volume, but does less impressive work in maximizing the value from each shot. Continuing this theme, I wanted to take this a step farther and explain some of the components of shot volume and shot making. Specifically, what kinds of shots are you taking? and how good are you at making different types of shots?
As a refresher on shot volume and shot making, you can click on the link above to re-read my last article (free to all), or you can just read the next few sentences for a more concise summary. Shot Volume measures how many shots a team takes per 100 possessions played. Turnovers subtract from this and offensive rebounds add to it; I also include free throw attempts but convert them to be the equivalent of a field goal attempt (accounting for the higher rate they are made as well as the possibility of 1, 2, or 3 per “possession”). Shot Making is a rating of how many more points you create off of your shot volume than an average team; this is why I need to convert free throw attempts to equate to field goal attempts.
Last season Kentucky was 3rd in the nation in Shot Volume, creating the equivalent of almost 109 shots per 100 possessions. An average team would have scored just over 110 points per 100 possessions on this amount of volume, and Kentucky was very slightly above that mark, scoring just under 111 points per 100 possessions; their ranking in Shot Making was just 202nd. The conclusion from this is that Kentucky did a nice job grabbing offensive rebounds but wasn’t a good shooting team, but that’s not quite the full picture. We can understand their offense a little better by looking at what types of shots UK took, and if Kentucky shot better or worse than most teams on these different shots. We can also look at how Kentucky’s defense fared using the same breakdown and pinpoint specific strengths and weaknesses. For premium subscribers, I’ve compiled this for every team in the nation for the last 5 years to get percentile ranks for each metric. Plus, I’ll include a link to the data in case anyone else wants to comb through it on their own.
Defining the metrics
I’m going to use 8 total metrics to paint a fuller picture of how UK’s offense (and defense) perform, 4 of which relate to volume/shot selection and 4 of which relate to scoring efficiency.
Volume/Shot selection
Shot Volume (explained above)
Rim Pressure Frequency: the % of scoring attempts made up of shots at the rim or free throws (converting 0.475 FGA per 1 FTA); note that “scoring attempts” = all FGA + 0.475* FTA
Midrange Frequency: the % of scoring attempts made up of 2 pointers not at the rim
3 Point Frequency: the % of scoring attempts made up of 3 pointers
Scoring Efficiency
Shot Making (explained above)
Rim Pressure Scoring: the effective field goal percentage on shots at the rim plus free throws (converting 0.475 FGA per 1 FTA)
Midrange Scoring: the field goal percentage on 2 pointers not at the rim
3 Point Scoring: the field goal percentage on 3 pointers
I was able to download team and opponent data from Sports Reference as well as shot location data from Hoop-Math.com. I compiled each metric for each team in the country, and every team is graded on their percentile rank among all teams. For offense, a higher percentile rank means the team generated more shots or shot a higher percentage (even for midrange shots, as distasteful as I personally find them). So, if UK is in the 29th percentile in Rim Pressure Frequency and 98th in Midrange Frequency that means they took a much lower amount of shots at the rim/free throws than most teams, and a much higher rate of midrange shots. For defensive ratings, a higher percentile means a team allowed fewer shots or a lower percentage.
So, how did Kentucky grade out in 2023?
A mismatched offense
In 2023, Kentucky had a pretty wide disconnect between the things they were good at and the things they did a lot:
As the graphic above shots, UK was among the top teams in the nation in overall shot volume as well as how frequently their scoring attempts came from midrange while they almost never took threes. When you look at how UK measured up in scoring efficiency, they were really good at rim pressure scoring (making shots at the rim or free throws) but took those much less frequently than other teams did. UK actually was slightly above average in scoring on threes and below average from midrange.
So what’s our takeaway here? John Calipari admitted that UK tries to create midrange shots and that pops off the page, but I wonder if he truly appreciates how poor the Wildcats are at scoring on those. UK’s better rank in scoring on threes and on rim pressure could be a function of the Wildcats being more selective in pursuing those, with players only taking threes when very open and only aggressively attacking the rim against teams who struggle to defend there. Put another way, it’s uncertain if UK could continue scoring at these rates if they took more threes or pressured the rim more…but given their poor performance from midrange, it’s probably worth exploring.
A solid defensive strategy
On the defensive side of the ball, UK had fewer areas in 2023 where they ranked among the best in the country. That shouldn’t be a surprise given their overall defensive profile.
Kentucky was just average at preventing opponent shot volume, which is a bit surprising given the rebounding prowess of Oscar Tshiebwe; the big issue here was UK forced few turnovers. The Wildcats did a nice job of limiting rim pressure attempts and 3 point attempts, while allowing a high portion of shots from midrange; while that shows up as a low percentile ranking on midrange frequency, it’s probably a net win. Kentucky was able to coax opponents into a suboptimal shot selection profile…but they weren’t great at stopping opponents who could force the issue.
Kentucky did a nice job of defending midrange shots and threes, ranking in the 75th and 73rd percentile in FG% allowed there. UK simply could not hold up when opponents pressured the rim, however, coming in at a woeful 27th percentile there. UK’s overall shotmaking defense checked in above average thanks to the favorable mix into midrange shots and strong defense on everything away from the rim, but the defense when opponents attacked the rim (rather through shots or drawing fouls) was an anchor.
Clearly there were some issues on both sides of the ball last season for UK, and there are clear opportunities for the offense (through better shot selection) and defense (better rim protection). By looking at some previous seasons, we can see what made the difference when UK had better offenses and defenses.
A pattern on offense
We don’t have to look far into the past to find a season where UK had more success on offense. In 2022, UK was #5 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings:
The top right section of the chart in 2022 looked very similar to 2023, with elite shot volume and an offense skewed towards midrange more than most teams. The biggest difference is in the bottom left section, where UK was an elite team in rim pressure and midrange scoring in 2022 but took a bit of a step back in each area in 2023.
In the 2019 season, UK also had a very strong offense. They ranked 14th in KenPom with that similar formula:
Again we see heavy shot volume and an offense skewed to the midrange, although the rim pressure frequency was higher that season (thanks to PJ Washington and others). In the bottom left, UK was once again elite at scoring off of their aggression and did a better than average job at scoring in the midrange.
It’s pretty clear that UK has an offensive style that Calipari hasn’t budged from: win on shot volume, use the midrange shot more than most teams, and be very good-to-excellent at scoring from midrange and closer. If UK’s offense is going to be top-15 or better in 2023, it’s likely going to require continued proficiency on the offensive boards along with hitting ~40% on midrange jumpers and ~70% at the rim. Otherwise, UK’s offensive approach will drag them down a good bit.
Defending rim pressure is a key
In the 2019 season UK had the #8 defense per KenPom, and if you squint you can see where they were similar to 2023’s struggles…and where they were VERY different.
In both 2023 and 2019 UK opponents took a large share of shots from midrange, which is a solid strategy for the defense. The 2019 defense was OUTSTANDING and defending against rim pressure, however, ranking in the 92nd percentile there. They also contested midrange shots effectively (which the 2023 team did too) which led to an elite defense.
The 2020 season is another example of how a UK defense can struggle without being able to defend against an aggressive offense.
Once again we see UK limiting rim pressure frequency and opponents resorting to more midrange shots than usual, while UK was also elite at limiting FG% from midrange and 3 point range. But this edition of the Wildcats ranked just 52nd in defense because of average defense against rim pressure as well as poor shot volume defense (UK was pretty bad at defensive rebounding and forcing turnovers).
This represents a tremendous opportunity for Kentucky, as they should be able to improve their defense to near-elite levels with consistent rim protection. Ugonna Onyenso hasn’t played much, but he has shown tremendous rim protection instincts. If UK can defend the rim without fouling, they could have a top-20 defense next season for the first time since 2019.
In basketball it’s critically to important to understand how a team is getting results and where they might be able to find improvement. It’s pretty clear what UK can rely on to get results on offense and defense, and it’s also pretty clear what makes the difference between elite and pretty good.
Want to dig through the data yourself? I’ve posted it on Google Drive so anyone can check it out: Shot Metrics Data