Last Saturday Kentucky once again proved their mettle by facing a tough conference foe while short-handed and coming out with a victory. Kentucky is now 4-0 in 4 conference games where they were missing one or both of their starting guards, with wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Alabama. While this isn’t exactly a murderer’s row, the way Kentucky has won these games is interesting. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at how Kentucky has thrived when short-handed, plus I preview the UK-LSU tilt.
A juggernaut on offense
Kentucky’s performance on offense against the Tide probably registered as a pleasant surprise for most UK fans, but maybe there shouldn’t have been much surprise at all. In the 4 full SEC games where they had time to prepare to be short-handed, UK has scored 128.4 points per 100 possessions. In all other SEC games, UK has scored 107.0 points per 100 possessions. It’s not just the Alabama game, either; excluding garbage time UK scored 134 pts per 100 against Georgia and 142 per 100 at Vandy. 3 of UK’s 4 best offensive games came when they were without a starting guard, and the 5th (vs Florida) came when Jacob Toppin was out.
While Kentucky’s defense has been worse in the games they are shorthanded, the offense is more than making up for it. Kentucky’s adjusted efficiency margin in the 4 shorthanded games is +33.7 per 100 poss compared to +26.1 in all other SEC games. The Wildcats are shooting better and committing fewer turnovers when they’re shorthanded, and it’s led to incredibly efficient offense.
UK does get out in transition much less when shorthanded. Transition shots (within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock) make up about 20% of UK’s total attempts in these games, compared to nearly 30% in other SEC games. UK does score much more effectively in these attempts (67% eFG%) thanks to improved shooting from 3 and at the rim. The same is true in halfcourt offense, where UK jumps from a 49% eFG% in other SEC games to 57% when shorthanded.
Most of the roster manages to step up in the absence of either starting guard and improves their efficiency:
Keion Brooks has an eFG% of 62% when undermanned vs 49% overall
Oscar Tshiebwe is at 72% when undermanned compared to 61% for the season
Davion Mintz posts a 50% eFG% in these games vs 48% overall
Tyty Washington manages a 60% eFG% vs 53% overall
Sahvir Wheeler is at a 50% eFG% vs 47% overall
The only rotation players who don’t post a higher eFG% in these games are Kellan Grady (59% vs 63%, but takes a larger share of shots) and Jacob Toppin (52% vs 57%), but both are still contributing to a very efficient offense.
What’s more, every rotation player has more assists than turnovers when UK is undermanned. For the season, Oscar Tshiebwe and Keion Brooks are below par in this department but they are more effective when needed the most.
In summary, UK’s offense has been spectacular when they have time to plan for being undermanned. Credit to the coaching staff and roster for putting together a gameplan and executing it at a high level. Looking back on it, maybe we shouldn’t have been so surprised that UK scored so well against Alabama….it’s what they do when backed into a corner.
LSU beat the Cats, but hasn’t been playing well
Kentucky has a chance to avenge one of their losses when they take on LSU, and even if UK is shorthanded this is a great opportunity. LSU just hasn’t been very good as SEC play has unfolded. The Tigers have been outscored by -2 points in 1,023 SEC possessions (excluding garbage time). Since defeating Florida to move to 3-1 in SEC play on January 12th, LSU is rated 89th in the nation per Bart Torvik. For the season LSU’s adjust efficiency per KenPom is +19.6, but the only game since Jan 12th where they’ve exceeded that margin was a beatdown of the lowly Georgia Bulldogs. The Tigers have steadily slipped from 8th in KenPom to their current 18th.
Will Wade’s rotation patterns have been interesting. He’s seemed to cycle through preferred lineups from game to game without much consistency (although the Tigers have been hampered by injury to Xavier Pinson). Incredibly, the last 2 games are the first time in SEC play that LSU has had 2 games in a row where the most common lineup stayed the same.
Tari Eason has been the standout for LSU, although he’s only playing about 25 mpg. In SEC play he has posted a 59% eFG% with 28 pts, 10 rebounds, and 4 steals per 40 minutes. When he plays alongside Darius Days in the frontcourt, LSU has no problem playing at an elite level. Since SEC play began LSU is +82 in 411 possessions they’ve played together, but -84 in the other 612.
In the first game against LSU, the Wildcats were doing fine until a short span where they had to play without either Washington or Wheeler. During that stretch, UK was -6 in 13 possessions and had 5 turnovers. Over the other 58 possessions UK was +1 with just 9 turnovers. In the time Washington played but Wheeler was out, UK outscored LSU by +6 points in 51 possessions. TyTy didn’t even have much to do with that success, as he was only 1-8 during that stretch without Wheeler.
I think UK will be fine against LSU. The Tigers depend on getting steals, and rely on opponents to miss an ungodly number of transition threes. UK doesn’t turn the ball over often and doesn’t shoot many transition threes when shorthanded, so I just don’t think the Cats will fall victim to LSU frequently enough to matter. The Tigers really struggle to score (108th in offensive efficieny per KenPom) and I think UK will be able to survive this test.