The Cards have been folding
When Louisville falls behind, their style of play and effort fall to pieces
The Louisville Cardinals are 0-9, so the list of things that have gone wrong this season isn’t a short one. I can’t even imagine where the coaching staff would start trying to fix this season. But I watched Kenny Payne’s remarks at his press conference before the Western Kentucky game and something he said stuck with me. He mentioned that something he wants the team to learn is how to deal with adversity, and referenced players not focusing as a deficit goes from 6 points to 9, then 12. Payne is absolutely right.
I took a spin through Louisville’s season data at my stats engine, and a couple things stood out very clearly. When Louisville falls behind:
The offense loses much of its structure
Effort on defense drops off considerably
Both of these have clearly happened, game after game, and I’ll explain through the data. There are a couple players who keep up the energy, but it’s not enough.
In addition to the team-wide effects, one player in particular seems to shift his approach dramatically as Louisville falls behind. El Ellis has been willing to buy into the team concept on offense early in games lately, but as the Cards fall behind he devolves into a less efficient approach. There’s a more patient version of Ellis that could be productive, but it’s going to take some work to get there.
For premium subscribers, I lay out the evidence that proves exactly how things fall apart for Louisville when they fall behind…
Kenny Payne has watched every second of Louisville’s games this season, and he clearly recognizes when things are going off the rails. It’s not exactly a revelation to say that Louisville has been falling apart as games go on, but there are a couple of specific stats that really highlight where things go wrong. Specifically, Louisville becomes less and less likely to assist on their made baskets, and they rebound a lower percentage of opponent misses.
I tracked these stats depending on the margin of the game, up until the game enters “garbage time”. I’m defining garbage time as a 25-point margin with 10 minutes left, 18-point margin with 5 minutes left, or 15-point margin with 2 minutes left. I’m excluding any garbage time possessions, but Louisville lets things go to hell well before then:
Assist rate (Ast% above) is the portion of made baskets generated by an assist. I don’t like it as a measure of “good offense” by itself, but changes in assist rate for a specific team usually signify a change in approach. Louisville assists on about 41% of their made baskets for the season, one of the lowest rates in the country. The fact that this drops to 35% and below as the Cards fall behind is a huge red flag. Similarly, Louisville’s defensive rebound rate tumbles as the Cards face larger and larger deficits.
This doesn’t tell the complete story, however. There’s an element of bias to these numbers, as Louisville is more likely to spend time trailing against really good teams, and playing good teams usually causes most stats to take a hit. Maybe that’s happening here?
But that’s not the case. In most games Louisville has played, their assist rate and defensive rebound rates have fallen within the game as the Cards fall behind:
During their opening three games, Louisville was able to keep things together through the game. But beginning with Maui, Louisville responded very poorly to being blown out. The last 3 games, Louisville hans’t been able to get past the 5 minute mark without falling behind by more than 5 points. The numbers and the film tell a similar story: the Cards throw out the gameplan. Players quit moving the ball around to open teammates, they don’t go after defensive rebounds with as much effort, and the deficit grows.
UofL has 6 players who have played at least 50 possessions over the past 6 games when winning/trailing by <5 and also when trailing by >5. Of those, only Jae’lyn Withers improves his defensive rebounding:
This isn’t likely a conditioning issue, as the problem occurs even in the first half as the Cards fall behind. The biggest issue is with Curry and Ellis, who go from being very good rebounders for their position (when the Cards are competitive) to being poor rebounders for their position (when the Cards fall behind).
El Ellis is maybe the most interesting Cardinal in terms of handling adversity. He’s their only quality option as a lead ballhandler, so there’s not much alternative to just working through any struggles he has. I do see some evidence that the coaching staff may be getting through to him in some ways, specifically in getting him to be less of a shoot-first guard and operate more within a team concept.
In the first 6 games of the season, Ellis was a pretty similar player whether Louisville was trailing or not. He was taking 30%+ of UofL’s shots when he was in the game pretty much from the jump. When Louisville was ahead he was taking better care of the ball due to not taking as many risks, but he was unquestionably looking for this own shots.
Over the last 3 games, however, Ellis has opened the games operating more within a team concept and less likely to shoot….at least until Louisville falls behind:
When Louisville is trailing by less than 5 points over their last 3 games, Ellis has taken 1 shots out of 12 for the team (8%) and has 3 assists and 3 turnovers. Ellis’ teammates have hit 7 of 11 shots, with an effective Fg% of 73%.
When Louisville is behind by 5 or more over the same 3 games, Ellis takes 36% of Card shots when he’s in and has 5 assists and 10 turnovers. His teammates post a 30% effective Fg% alongside him
You can see this happening in the games. The first few possessions feature passing, cutting, and multiple Cardinals getting a chance to attack the defense. As the Cards fall behind, more and more possessions feature an Ellis drive that only leads to a pass in the most dire of circumstances.
There’s a better, more controlled and efficient version of El Ellis that can help Louisville have a more functional offense. The coaching staff has at least convinced him to try that approach early in games, but his patience wears thin. Maybe it will take another game where Louisville is competitive throughout, but I think we’ll get some extended stretches where Louisville moves the ball more effectively. It’s clear that these Cardinals don’t yet believe in what the coaching staff is teaching them, at least not enough to keep working on it when things get tough. Given that Kenny Payne clearly is prioritizing that, I’ll keep tabs to see if there are any signs of improvement.