Signs of progress for UofL
The Cards are making some progress, even if it doesn't feel like it
I don’t know how many Louisville fans really had hope that the Cards might get a win against UNC even when their team led the Tar Heels 15-7. This season has beaten the hope right out of the fanbase, at least until the transfer portal opens.
A 21 point loss, Louisville’s 16th in 18 tries, doesn’t stir many emotions that haven’t been blended into oblivion already. Turnovers and defense are permanent obstacles for this Cardinal team in a way that seems to defy belief. However, I believe there are real signs of progress on offense.
Louisville has stumbled onto an offensive style that can be very effective. Some of the fundamentals around spacing, outside shooting, and attacking closeouts have been consistent in several games. With that kind of demonstrated effectiveness, it’s fair to then judge the team by slightly higher standards, such as:
Is Louisville deploying lineups that can be effective on offense, or are they reverting to less effective groupings?
Is Louisville playing to the strengths of these lineups?
Is Louisville creating quality shots?
Is Louisville hitting these quality shots?
It’s my belief that the Cards earned a “Yes” on 3 of these 4 points against UNC, and I think fans have a reason to have some optimism, while also asking for further improvement on offense and defense. I’ll explain after the paywall…
For premium subscribers, find out how Louisville is putting a plan together on offense but results don’t always match…
Playing the right lineups…maybe by accident?
For the first time all season, Louisville started the exact kind of lineup that has been having success lately. El Ellis surrounded by capable shooters (James, Traynor, Withers) and a lone big have been making good things happen by spreading the court, hitting threes, and creating space for Ellis and a big to score near the rim. I’ve written about it in my last few articles so I won’t belabor the point here.
The absence of Brandon Huntley-Hatfield may have led the coaching staff to stumble on this group. I say this because, while this group with Sydney Curry played the most possessions of any UofL lineup this game, that’s only the 3rd time all season that a lineup like this has led the team in possessions played. One of those was against Western Kentucky and the other vs Wake Forest, so it’s not like the staff has been working towards making this their preferred group in recent games.
Kenny Payne alluded to some off-court issues with Withers, so that may be limiting his trust in this type of group. I can’t imagine anyone is really looking at data regarding how these groups are playing, because if they are then this group will be the foundation for the rest of the season. Even in a blowout loss, this group held up well. These lineups played 35 total possessions with either Curry or Wheeler at center and were outscored by only 5 points; over the other 37 possessions UofL was outscored by 16 points. If not for 8 turnovers (the curse of the Cards), this group might have outscored UNC even hitting just 1 of 4 from three point range; UofL hit 10 of 16 shots at the rim with these lineups. It’s pretty clear that Ellis’ dribble penetration matched with spacing from capable shooters is a real recipe for offensive success, even with turnovers and ragged defense. Louisville should commit to this style of play.
So, that’s sort of progress…but there’s even more reason to keep expecting more.
Horrid shooting luck
In m last article I talked about shot quality, a metric that is available on Synergy. Louisville hit a milestone against UNC by putting up their first game in ACC play (and just 2nd overall this season) taking more shots graded as High Quality (14) than Low Quality (11). The reason Louisville only scored 59 points is simply bad shooting lucky.
Synergy assigns an expected points per shot on every shot a team takes. Actual performance can then be measured against expectation. On their 55 shots, Louisville underperformed their expected shooting by -0.27 points per shot. That’s equivalent to 15 points worth of bad shooting “luck”. While some of that could be caused by defense, it doesn’t change the fact that UofL created quality shots but just didn’t hit them. Louisville hasn’t had particularly bad shooting luck this season; their overall shooting luck is -0.04 points per shot. What ended up as a 21 point loss had the underlying qualities of something more like a 6-8 point loss.
If Louisville had kept the game within single digits, I think fans would feel a lot better now. I’m not saying anyone has to feel completely pacified by just losing by a few points in every game, but I think it’s worthwhile to find signs of progress in UofL’s offensive approach, I also think it’s worthwhile to ask for more progress.
Plenty to still clean up
I went back and watched all of the offensive possessions by UofL in this game to identify where things started to go south. One thing I noticed is that UofL got a little sloppy when running pick and roll for Ellis. Specifically, UofL started several pick and rolls too far out on the court which neutralized a lot of Ellis threat, like this one:
I don’t like UofL starting a pick and roll so far out with Curry, because it removes some of the options the Cards have to score here. UNC knows Curry isn’t doing anything 24 feet from the basket, so they don’t guard him at all. Then, Ellis’ defender can go under the screen because Ellis isn’t likely to pull up from so far out. Curry isn’t rolling here to take up any attention, and multiple UNC defenders are ready for Ellis when he gets into an area where he could do something dangerous. If Curry sets a screen at the top of the key, Ellis is more of a threat to pull up for three and Curry has to be monitored for a quick roll.
Another issue here is that Ellis just isn’t able to make the passing reads to exploit this. The best read is Traynor in the far corner, since his man is cheating way off; I don’t know that Ellis has the vision to see that pass or the skill to make it without a turnover.
What I’d like to see UofL incorporate off of this is more plays where Curry fakes setting a screen and just rolls to the hoop (“slipping” the screen) to pull defensive attention away from Ellis. Again, this is more effective if the screen is a little lower. Louisville has a real threat with Ellis pick and roll and a spread floor, and now they have to find counters to stay ahead of the defense.
Another area where fans are in the right to demand progress is transition defense. Over the past 4 games Louisville is allowing a ridiculous 101 points on 80 transition possessions (1.26 pts/poss); that’s a staggering 20 possessions per game where UofL allows a shot within 10 seconds. Opponents have a 65% effective FG% and are hitting 33 of 37 free throws in these spots. It’s not just off steals, either. Opponents are actually averaging more points per possession in transition after defensive rebounds or UofL makes (1.28). Louisville has to focus on getting back in transition defense, having good fundamentals to stop the ball and cover any open players, and actually contest shots with some energy.
It’s a good sign that Louisville has some things going for it on offense, but there’s not excuse for an ACC team to be unable to offer any resistance in transition. The staff and players need to show more in these areas where they’ve been leaking points if the fanbase is to believe that anything will substantively change next season. The rest of this season is about Louisville showing that they can stay engaged and focused to give everyone around the program the feeling that winning can come with better roster construction.