PK is putting his stamp on the Cards
There’s a plan…and they aren’t likely to shoot this bad from three all season
Stats referenced are from the excellent (and free) hoop-explorer.com and BartTorvik.com
With a 5-2 start, Louisville basketball has relegated the nightmare of the past two seasons to the distant memories of the fan base. Pat Kelsey has invigorated the program with energy, preparation, and results. While the first two are an unassailable product of the staff, the last depends on the execution of the players along with a dash of luck. I don’t see any reason to think that any one of these is going to dip over the rest of the season…in fact, I think the results will improve.
Before I get to that, let me explain what’s going on…
On Defense
There are two factors powering Louisville’s defense so far:
Forcing turnovers at the 5th highest rate in the nation
Allowing opponents to hit just 47% on layups and dunks, a top-40 rim defense
Both outcomes have been driven by a combination of pressure on ballhandlers and a defense that swarms whena ballhandler gets near the lane. Put simply, Louisville doesn’t allow drivers to get to the basket very easily at all. The CardiPat nals give up unassisted baskets at the rim at tremendously low rates, which is rare for a team without a great shot blocker….but Louisville does it with gang pressure.
Pat Kelsey teams usually don’t play defense this way. He’s never had a team this good at forcing turnovers or at 2pt FG% defense. However, he’s also never coached a team with this level of athleticism…so there’s an argument to be made that he’s adapated his defensive principles to the talent he has.
That’s a great sign, because there’s reason to believe that Kelsey has put his imprint on the offense and there’s upside to be found there…
On Offense
Pat Kelsey offenses take a ton of threes and almost no midrange shots, a very smart tradeoff. This season UofL is 14th in 3 point frequency and bottom-40 in midrange frequency. His offenses don’t take a ton of shots at the rim, but tend to be very good at converting there because of the way the court is spaced. That’s holding true as well, with Louisville sitting as a top-50 team at the rim htiting 65% there.
The pick and roll has been a major weapon for Louisville this season, benefitting from the strong spacing and some creative lead guards. Per hoop-explorer, Louisville is in the 86th percentile in points scored per pick and roll and in the 71st percentile in frequenycy of shooting from them.
One area where Louisville has really struggled is turning this dynamisn into made threes. Louisville is in the 25th percentile in per-possession scoring from pick-and-pop shots despite being in the 95th percentile in frequency of them. Overall, the Cardinals have hit less than 29% from three. Will it get any better?
Yeah, it probably will. Two key Cards, Kasean Pryor and Terrence Edwards, have combined to hit under 20% from three. Both has a track record of hitting 35-36% from deep and 80% from the free throw line, so it’s unlikely they became horrible shooters suddenly.
Most teams who start the season hitting 29% or less don’t have players who have a history of shooting well, but I did find one interesting comp for UofL. Last year’s Michigan State team was horrendous from three over the first month of the season, hitting 25%. Guards Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard combined to hit 10-41 despite a history of hitting 36-40% each. So what happened after December 1? Walker and Hoggard hit 39% from deep over the rest of the season, and the Spartans hit that number as a team after December 1.
Louisville may not improve quite that much, but even just getting to Pryor and Edwards’s averages will help. Even with other Cards struggling, the team would be hitting about 33% from deep if Pryor and Edwards could get to 36% combined. That’s not a lot to ask, and with the volume of threes Louisville shoots the benefit will be outsized.
It may be tough for Louisville to be as effective on defense all season long as the competition gets tougher, but there’s clearly upside to be realized on the other end of the court. More importantly, there’s clearly a plan in place to achieve results…and that should comfort Louisville fans who deserve a great program.