It’s good to have college basketball back, but I can’t blame Cardinal fans for being less than enthusiastic for this kind of start. On top of the suspension of their head coach for the first 6 games, the team has had a lot of problems putting any sort of consistent winning stretches together. It’s way too early to have any grand pronouncements about What This Team Is, but it’s certainly worth looking through the data around the first 2 performances to identify what the problems are and how likely they are to improve.
Before I dig in, I’m trying something new this season. Since I’ve launched my new Stats Engine tool, I wanted to share more about how I dig into college basketball data. Periodically during the season, I’ll post YouTube videos where I use the stats engine to show you the data and insights I’m writing about. When I do this, I’ll link to the video within the article so you can follow along and dig in yourself. You can find the companion video for this article here:
One sorta-OK game…
When does a win feel like a loss? When it’s by 12 points against a team expected to be one of the worst in D-1. However, the 72-60 win over Southern shouldn’t trouble UofL fans too much for 3 reasons:
1) Southern hit an absolutely meaningless 3 in what I classify as garbage time. I exclude garbage time, so I consider this a 15 point win
2) Louisville got that win despite the twin problems of poor 3 point shooting and crazy turnovers, both unlikely to sustain for much of the season
3) Southern beat an average Tulane team by 3 at Tulane the next game, so Southern might not be as awful as though
….and one complete stinker
The loss to Furman was really bad, however. While the offense actually got a bit worse than the Southern game, Louisville’s defense completely collapsed. The turnover issue didn’t continue, but two new problems cropped up:
Louisville was a staggering 2-10 on shots at the rim in non-transition situations: Dre Davis and Noah Locke combined to go 1-6, with Williams/Williamson/Withers going 1-4. Davis and Locke both struggled to finish at the rim last season, hitting 48% and 47% there respectively, but 1-6 is a nightmare. Those aren’t the best finishers on the team, and neither Davis or Locke took a shot at the rim in the halfcourt against Southern. The Cards aren’t going to be running a lot of set plays to get specific players shots at the rim, so it’s up to everyone to take advantage when they are able to get shots in close.
Louisville really struggled to guard the perimeter in halfcourt defense: Furman started 31 possessions following a UofL make. They went 6-10 from threes in these situations, for a cool 60%. They even went 1-1 on threes following a deadball turnover, so the Paladins hit 7 of 11 threes against a completely set Cardinal defense. A common denominator seemed to be the presence of Mason Faulkner for the Cards. Furman scored nearly at will against set defenses with Faulkner in them, putting up 173 pts/100 poss after made baskets with him in the game but just 69 with him on the bench. For the game Louisville was outscored by -18 in 38 possessions with Faulkner in and outscored Furman by +10 in 39 possessions with him out. A similar pattern occurred against Southern, although Faulkner played less in that game. This is definitely worth monitoring over the next few games to see if it’s a fluke or a real problem.
There is one clear positive to take away from the Furman game, as Louisville was excellent in transition opportunities (which I define as possessions taking 10 or fewer seconds). The Cards generated 27 transition shots vs just 15 for Furman, and Louisville had an effective FG% of 50% on them. Considering Louisville had an effective FG% of just 37% outside of transition, their quick-strike abilitiy kept them in the game. The shift to a faster tempo is already paying dividends!
Louisville also has clearly shifted their halfcourt offensive focus away from midrange jumpers. 22% of Louisville’s shots in halfcourt sets have been 2 pointers not at the rim; last season those were 34% of the team’s shots. That type of shot selection will pay off, as those are the least valuable shots you can take. Ross McMains’ stylistic influence is already being felt.
Room for improvement!
The best thing about a low bar is that it’s easy to clear. I’d be stunned if Louisville had another game this season where they struggled this much at the rim in halfcourt offense. The coaching staff also won’t allow the kind of defensive lapses that let opponents bomb away against a set defense.
That being said, Louisville has a long way to go in order to reach the kind of potential I think they have. The focus for the next few games should be around tightening up the defense, finding a rhythym in halfcourt offense, and determining how to trim the rotation. We won’t have a clear idea of what this team can actually be until they get those things sorted out.