Meet the New Kentucky, same as the Old Kentucky
The Wildcats get a badly needed elite win, but underlying problems remain...and are likely to be a factor again soon.
Note: I was planning for this post to be subscribers-only, but I have decided to make it free to all. I’ll follow up with 2 more subscriber-only posts this week.
With the Kentucky fanbase at an extreme low point, the Wildcats delivered a much needed victory to inject hope back into a lifeless season. The pivot from “losing at home to the worst SEC team in years” to “winning on the road against the best SEC team in years” is a dizzying one, and most UK fans before Saturday’s game rightly found it implausible to even consider. But here we are, with the sun shining on Big Blue Nation once again as the Cats got a win.
That win will be extremely valuable in evaluating NCAA Tournament bubble teams, and will likely be the trump card in head-to-head assessments of UK vs other teams with what I’d expect to be less than stellar resumes. At first glance, it’s even reasonable for UK fans to get their hopes up for more statement wins over the rest of the season. I don’t want to downplay the importance of that win, but any thoughts that “The Cats are Back!” need to be tempered when considering the takeaways from that game.
I believe there are 3 key things that drove UK’s win over Tennessee, and are very different than anything that’s been causing problems lately for UK:
Excellent defensive rebounding by Wildcats other than Oscar Tshiebwe
Kentucky shot a large number of free throws
Kentucky was effective on defense
Of these 3, I believe only #1 is something that can be counted on going forward. I’ll explain in this article, free to everyone…
Note: To view most of the UK stats I quote, check out my public site where you can dig into team, lineup, and player stats all you want
The rebounding, uh, rebounded
Kentucky’s defensive rebounding had been really bad in recent games, with rock bottom occurring as UK allowed South Carolina to get over half of their own misses. In their first 4 SEC games UK rebounded 68% of opponent misses, down from their 74% season average. The dropoff wasn’t due to Oscar Tshiebwe; he’s been steadily collecting about 25% of opponent misses when he’s in. Rather, the issue has been a lack of involvement from other Wildcats.
Against Tennessee, Oscar again did his thing and got 24% of Volunteer misses when he was in the game. His teammates stepped up for one of the first times all season and collected 65% of available defensive rebounds, their highest total all season. This was a collective effort with nearly every Wildcat energetically pursuing rebounds, and it paid off as Tennessee got only 4 offensive rebounds leading to 4 points. The Vols entered the game #1 in the country in offensive rebounding, so this was a massive win.
This type of effort was sorely needed and frankly would have made a difference against South Carolina. Recent opponents have been pulling Tshiebwe away from the basket on defense, which makes it harder for him to collect defensive rebounds. UK has needed other players to pick up the slack, and they did so in a major way. There may be some game-to-game lapses, but UK has shown the ability to impose their will in rebounding and needs to make this a strength going forward. UK has 7 games against teams in the top 25 in offensive rebounding coming up (Texas A&M, Auburn, Miss St., Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Georgia 2x) and can’t afford to let opponents get too many extra chances.
Free throws were given, not earned
The most impactful positive thing Kentucky did on offense revolved around the free throw line. UK got to the line 25 times and hit 22 of them. The ratio of 25 FTA to 51 FGA is the highest ratio for the Cats in a game this season. UK ranks just 214th in the country in frequency of drawing free throws this season, so this seems like it might be a sign that they’ve figured it out and are getting more aggressive in drawing fouls. Right? Right?
Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem so. Subscriber Trent McBride did some great work after the game in evaluating Kentucky’s offense, and brought to my attention that a large portion of the free throws the Wildcats got came when they got fouled on defensive rebounds. So, I went back and rewatched every instance where UK drew free throws and charted what UK was doing when the foul was called. Rather than draw fouls by driving to the hoop, UK benefitted enormously from a very handsy Tennessee defense in situations where UK either wasn’t on offense, or on players who didn’t have the ball. Of the 25 free throws UK drew:
8 were drawn by a UK ballhandler on offense
8 were drawn while collecting a defensive rebound or loose ball
5 were drawn by a player off the ball on offense (usually Tennessee grabbing a player using a screen)
4 were drawn when Tennessee purposefully fouled to stop clock late
It is worth shouting out Adou Thiero, who drew 4 free throws on aggressive drives to the basket…he more than any other Wildcat was effective at forcing the issue and drawing free throws. Nearly everything else came because of physical play from Tennessee that was whistled.
OK, so those are the free throws…but to get free throws like these, you have to have drawn a lot of fouls already so you’re in the bonus. Surely THAT was accomplished by a newfound aggressiveness in attacking the basket, right? Right?
Again, no. There were 11 other fouls called in the game that didn’t result in free throws, and here’s how they were drawn:
4 were drawn while getting a defensive rebound or loose ball
3 were drawn on offense by a player without the ball, or a ballhandler well outsdie the 3 point arc
2 were drawn as charges by Tennessee
2 were drawn by ballhandlers on offense inside the 3 point arc
The narrative that UK was aggressive on offense and this resulted in free throws just doesn’t hold up. Kentucky has been outside the top 200 in the rate at which they draw free throws over the past 2 seasons, and was just 90th the season prior. This is after UK was in the top 50 nearly every season in Cal’s first decade at UK, and frequently in the top 25. Kentucky no longer draws free throws like they used to. While UK got free throws against Tennessee, those were in large part not due to anything UK was doing and shouldn’t be expected to continue against other opponents.
A lack of a needed test for UK’s defense
Coming into the Tennessee game, I had noted in some radio appearances that one silver lining was that Tennessee was not built to challenge Kentucky with the kind of actions the Wildcats had been struggling to defend. UK’s issues had come in 3 places: 1) Oscar Tshiebwe defending pick and roll, 2) defending big men who could space the floor, and 3) defending in transition after defensive rebounds. Tennessee didn’t really try to attack UK with any of these.
Oscar Tshiebwe has struggled mightily in pick and roll this year He was even benched briefly against Alabama over it. Opponents in recent games have had his man set screens and ballhandlers have been able to get almost any shot they want as Oscar is tentative and slow-footed in space against guards. Tennessee runs pick and roll less than any SEC team, but I expected them to adjust and take advantage of this obvious weakness…and yet they didn’t. Tennessee rarely had Oscar’s man set a pick, although they did have three straight possessions in the 2nd halfd where Volunteer ballhandlers were able to create off of it:
As you can see above, Zakai Zeigler got 2 layups that he missed, while Santiago Vescovi hit a free throw line jumper. Tshiebwe was able to contest one of the Zeigler layups, but it’s still kind of stunning that a 5’9” guard was able to get off a layup against the 6’9” Tshiebwe. After these plays, Tennessee never tried this action again.
Tennessee also didn’t try to pull Oscar out on the perimeter on defense really at all. They played Uros Plavsic and Jonas Aidoo, neither of whom is a shooting threat at all; both primarily post-up. This allowed Oscar to focus on post defense (where he is excellent) and be in position to rebound.
Upcoming opponents will test Kentucky more in these areas. Georga, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Florida, and Kansas all use pick and roll about 4x as often as Tennessee and all score at a higher rate off of it. Texas A&M runs pick and roll about 2x as often as Tennessee, and is in the top 5% of teams nationally at scoring off of it thanks to guard Wade Taylor IV. In fact, Kentucky has yet to play any of the top 5 SEC teams in pick and roll frequency, and only Missouri (4th) in the top 5 in pick and roll points per possessions. If UK doesn’t fix their pick and roll defense, it’s going to get shredded.
Kentucky has also been vulnerable in transition lately, particularly after defensive rebounds. Watching tape, this is a combination of UK’s aggressiveness going after offensive rebounds, lack of quickness in getting back (particularly Oscar), and opponents aggressively pushing the pace. When UK opponents in SEC games get a defensive rebound, they got a shot within 10 seconds 30% of the time and scored about 1.25 points per possession. That would put Kentucky among the 10-15 worst transition defenses in the country after rebounds.
Tennessee attempted a shot within 10 seconds of collecting a defensive rebound once in the whole game. This came at the end of the first half when they had to get a shot off to beat the buzzer. Otherwise, Tennessee was content to walk or job the ball up the court, even as Kentucky defenders were largely doing the same. This was a major miss by Tennessee in my opinion, but it sure helped Kentucky. Among SEC teams, only Alabama is in the top 100 in frequency of transition shots after getting a rebound (although Kansas is 92nd). Kentucky may not get tested very much in upcoming games unless teams adjust their approach. If any opposing coaches are looking to exploit a Kentucky weakness, it’s quite possible they’ll find success.
It’s not my intention to devalue Kentucky’s win over Tennessee; that win isn’t going anywhere and is a massive advantage should Kentucky be in the bubble discussion. However, an honest evaluation of the factors that helped Kentucky win shows pretty clearly that, rather than Kentucky changing what they do, they benefitted from things Tennessee did or didn’t do. That’s not a formula to turn around a lackluster season. I hope Kentucky’s coaching staff understands how little is fixed and how much work is still left. If not, I’m concerned they will get a reminder in one of the next 3 games.