Meet Gonzaga
UK takes on the Zags in a massize non-conference showdown. Learn what you need to know about the Cats' opponent!
This post is going out to all Hoops Insight subscribers as a free article. If you don’t want to receive Kentucky articles, please updates your subscription settings at the link below.
It’s only been a few months since it was announced, but the Kentucky-Gonzaga matchup has had college basketball fans breathless with anticipation for November 20th. The day is finally here, and two national championship contenders will face off.
Because they haven’t crossed paths frequently, Kentucky fans probably aren’t too familiar with Gonzaga. Yes, Drew Timme is a star, and Gonzaga doesn’t play much of anybody in their conference, and the Zags probably haven’t had as much NCAA Tournament success as their seeds would have predicted. But in order to really prepare for today’s game, Kentucky fans should know 3 key things about Gonzaga:
Gonzaga has been an absolute offensive powerhouse
They have had some atypical struggles early this season
There are a few key areas UK needs to establish an advantage if they are going to win
A history of dominant offense
Gonzaga has basically always been good on offense under Mark Few. Per KenPom, they have only finished lower than 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency twice in 23 seasons under Few, and never lower than 50th. This is adjusted for opponent, so it at least attempts to deal with Gonzaga’s weaker conference foes.
They’ve taken it to another level in the last 5 seasons however. Including this season, Gonzaga has been #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency 4 times in 5 seasons; the other season they were 3rd. They accomplish this in a very consistent way:
Gonzaga is always elite at hitting 2-pointers
They turn the ball over very infrequently
They shoot three pointers well, but don’t shoot many of them
They look to get out in transition, and very rarely go deep into the shot clock
The past few years, they’ve been running post-ups a high amount to utilize Drew Timme. Gonzaga usually fits their offensive style to maximize the skills of their players. In the past they ran a lot of pick and roll when they had athletic bigs like Brandon Clarke. This season things aren’t clicking quite so well, though…
Not your usual Zags
This season, Gonzaga has already had a comeback win over Michigan State and been blown out by Texas. The 19 point loss to the Longhorns was especially notable as it was Gonzaga’s largest losing margin since a 23 point loss to #1 seed Arizona in the 2nd round of the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Last season Gonzaga played 13 games agianst teams in the KenPom top 30, went 9-4, and had zero losses by more than 10 points…so what’s different this season?
There are 2 areas where Gonzaga has really struggled this season: committing turnovers, and FG% in transition. The Zags haven’t been outside the top 40 in lowest turnover rates since 2016, but through three games they rank 312th. Gonzaga hadn’t had a single game where they turned the ball over on 25% of their possessions since Dc 5, 2017; they have turned it over 25% and 27% in their last 2 games. The Zags have more turnovers than assists, and bigs Drew Timme and Efton Reid are combining for 6 turnovers per game already.
Gonzaga is struggling quite a bit in transition as well. Per Synergy, the Zags are in the 29th percentile in points per transition possession putting up just 0.927 points on average each time they run. This is even inflated by a season-opening blowout over North Florida; in their last 2 games the Zags have scored just 11 points in 27 transition possessions. They are turning the ball over 22% of the time in transition, the 33rd worst rate in the nation. Their effective FG% in transition ranks 219th; they were 10th in that metric last season.
Where can UK find advantages?
Kentucky is going to have to find ways to exploit these Gonzaga weaknesses if they are going to get the victory. First, Kentucky needs to keep the Gonzaga turnover machine rolling. Cason Wallace has established himself as a serious thief, which should keep pressure on the Zags backcourt. There are two other spots where I think UK can create turnovers with effective pressure: Julian Strawther and (surprise!) Drew Timme. Strawther has been quite turnover-prone this season when spotting up and driving against closeouts. He’s often a safety valve on pick-and-roll if the ballhandler and rollman are covered, and he’s gotten sloppy if the defense closes out effectively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a travel or a loose dribble if he tries to attack off the dribble.
Drew Timme is one of the best big man scorers in the nation, and is terrific on post ups…but he’s not perfect. Timme is a willing passer when defenses double team him in the post, but those passes usually don’t create offense for Gonzaga…and they result in a turnover more frequently than Mark Few probably wants. Timme is going to post up a lot today, but I think Kentucky can defend it pretty well. First, Oscar Tshiebwe is a terrific post-up defenders. Last season Tshiebwe allowed opponents to hit just 32% on post-ups, and he forced a turnover 18% of the time. Second, when Tshiebwe is out, Kentucky has several long-armed interior defenders who can swarm Timme and force mistakes. Timme will put up numbers due to his volume of post-up and his skill at scoring, but I don’t think it will come very easily.
The second key area Kentucky needs to focus on is transition defense. As I mentioned, Gonzaga has been pretty bad this season at scoring in transition. This isn’t a completely new thing; last season they struggled to convert in transition against many high-major opponents. The Zags had an effective Fg% less than 50% in transition against Arkansas, Texas Tech, Alabama, and Texas. Kentucky did an excellent job in transition against Michigan State, allowing an eFG% of just 40%.
If Kentucky can stymie Gonzaga in transition and force turnovers at a high rate, the Wildcats chances of winning go WAY up. But where might they run into trouble?
Possible trouble spots
There are two areas that I think could cause Kentucky some trouble in this game. The first is Drew Timme’s ability to draw fouls. He drew a free throw on 25% of his post-ups last season, which put him 3rd in the country among all players with at least 100 post ups. If Oscar Tshiebwe gets into foul trouble, Kentucky’s entire team identity shifts and less-proven players need to step up.
The second area is related to the first, and it’s defensive rebounding. Kentucky did a poor job on the defensive glass against Michigan State, and their defensive rebounding was downright disastrous when Tshiebwe sat. Gonzaga doesn’t usually get a lot of offensive rebounds, but if Kentucky is unable to end defensive possessions by rebounding then Gonzaga will likely take advantage of this gift.
Unless Gonzaga fixes their issues with turnovers and in transition, I think Kentucky could have some big scoring runs in them today. Given that the game is in Spokane and each team is going to focus on posting up their star big man, I’d expect either Tshiebwe or Timme to pick up an early foul or two. Whichever team is forced to bench their star first is likely to be down at halftime. I think Kentucky’s outside shooters and ability to create defensive pressure will help them establish a second-half lead, and it’ll be on John Calipari to have fixed Kentucky’s late game execution issues from last week. I think Kentucky holds the lead with 5 minutes to go, but it’s anybody’s guess if they finish.
Hickman is their best backcourt scorer in halfcourt offense, although he’s had his issues. If he’s missing, Gonzaga is going to be heavily dependent on Timme and hoping someone else figures it out.
Nice breakdown! Hope Oscar is able to stay out of foul trouble but I'm glad we've got a few other guys who play high-level D around the basket if he has to sit.
Nolan Hickman got hurt againstead Texas but I haven't been able to find anything about whether he'll be available. He doesn't put up huge numbers or anything but he seems like a better option than Sallis. If he's not available, I wonder how it might affect their performance.