Little progress for UofL...how long until the Cards are BACK?
I look for any signs of improvement over the last few games, and look at two comparable situations to assess how long it might take to return the Cards to their winning ways
Look, I thought the vibes would be better this year for Louisville and I was wrong about that. In the words of the great philosopher Confucius, “losing fucking sucks”. I’ve been watching Louisville basketball for most of the last 35 years, and this is the toughest season to watch.
The recent stretch has featured 5 games against Power 6 opponents, all ranked in the top 75 nationally per KenPom. That’s a brutal run for a team that was struggling for an identity already. The next 4 games are all against teams outside the top 100 per KenPom, including a horrendous Florida A&M team. This is an absolutely crucial set of games, as it’s both the easiest run of opponents (only 4 more games after this vs teams outside top 100) and is the only remaining stretch of 3 straight home games.
If there’s any chance of building confidence, showing improvement, and shaking things up it comes over this next 2 weeks. Over the last 4 games, Louisville has fallen apart in several key areas and shown only the faintest glimmers of improvement…and only if you squint really hard. Let’s take a look at both the bad and the good…
Not measuring up
The last 4 games have been an embarassment to the Cardinal fanbase, and it’s pretty clear a large portion has checked out. I can’t really blame them, as the team has been uncompetitive against anything resembling quality competition. Over the last 4 games Louisville has played 283 possessions of basketball and held a lead for 14 of those.
With the uptick in competition, it’s normal to see most stats slip a bit…but Louisville has fallen off a cliff in some key areas. Excluding garbage time, the Cards have:
Hit just 15% of their three pointers (down from 34% in the first 4)
Allowed opponents to hit 64% of their two pointers (vs 52% in the first 4)
Taken 33% of their shots from midrange (up from 23% in the first 4)
The first two are just dreadful and emblematic of the non-competitive nature of these matchups. The third is dispiriting, given that one of the few bright spots of the first 4 games was that Louisville was avoiding midrange shots. The Cards are hitting 30% from midrange this season, and they have no recourse against better teams but to take these low-percentage shots.
The most concerning trend to me has occurred over the past 2 games. The real lone bright spot on defense had been that Louisville was defending pretty well after the Cards made a basket. My theory was that the positive vibes plus the ability to set their defense was getting them to perform near their best. Knowing that there was at least some potential for a functional defense was important. Over the last 2 games, that potential has disappeared. Louisville has gone from allowing just 99 pts/100 possessions following a made basket over their first 6 game to allowing 113.5 pts/100 over their last 2. It’s a small sample (especially considering how rarely Louisville makes baskets) but it’s worrying if this trend continues. The Cards defense needs to be improving, not regressing.
There are a couple of areas where Louisville has either improved, or maintained solid play. The offense has been less centered on El Ellis the last 4 games, as his share of UofL shots when in the game has dropped from a preposterous 39% to a merely eye-raising 30%. Against Miami, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield actually took more shots than Ellis when the two shared the court; that had not happened all season for any rotation Cardinal. No Louisville player can be described as playing well on offense the last 4 games, but at least the offense is possibly starting to diversify.
Louisville has largely continued to be a strong defensive rebounding team. Excluding garbage time, UofL has collected 78% of opponent misses after getting to 81% in the opening 4 games. Even the 78% is a top-25 level rate, nationally. The qualifier “excluding garbage time” is important, however, as the Cards had a horrendous time rebounding Texas Tech misses when the game was out of reach. By the way, “garbage time” may be a significant term for Louisville this season…to see how I define it, read my stats glossary.
One final area of improvement for Louisville is one where they basically had no choice but to improve. Through 6 games, Louisville ranked dead last in D-1 in defending pick and roll ballhandlers, per Synergy. In the last 2 games the Cards have shown some life, holding Miami and Maryland ballhandlers in check in this action. If this is the result of better effort or a coaching adjustment, then maybe Louisville can continue to show improvement here. One caveat is that the Cardinals got absolutely roasted against Miami by the roll man, so it’s possible they’ve plugged one hole to open another. If we can’t see progress, maybe at least we can see a change in what the problems are?
How long until Louisville escapes the vortex of suckiness?
Louisville isn’t unique as a Power 6 program falling on extremely hard times, and some comparable programs who have done so offer interesting case studies. Two programs in particular look fairly similar to Louisville in that they 1) have a rich tradition of basketball success and 2) fell outside the top 200 in KenPom in their first season with a new coach. Both programs reached the NCAA Tournament in year 4 with their new coach, although the paths back and the heights reached were different.
2015-16 St. John’s
St. John’s parted ways with Steve Lavin after 2 1st round NCAA losses in 5 years and hired alum Chris Mullin. Mullin had no relevant coaching experience, although he did some front office work in the NBA. The Red Storm were immediately terrible, finished #211 per KenPom and going 8-24 (1-17 in the Big East). The offense was a disaster, ranking in the bottom 30 in effective FG% and turnover rate (as Louisville currently does). They mustered enough defensive effort to force turnovers and block shots, but were otherwise a sieve. One of their wins was somehow against a good Syracuse team, but otherwise they beat nobody ranked in the top 150. Hilariously, they played in the Maui Invitational just like Louisville did and recorded a win against Chaminade by 7 points (just like the Cards did in an exhibition).
The next season Mullin brought in two new top-100 high school guards, Shamorie Ponds and Marcus LoVett, and they helped stabilize things. Over the next 3 seasons St. John’s ranked inside the top 100 each season per KenPom, although never better than #74. They never put up a winning conference record, but did record back to back wins over top 5 teams (Duke and Villanova) in the 2017-18 season and made the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed in 2018-19. Mullin resigned after year 4.
2008-09 Indiana
In 2008 Kelvin Sampson committed the apparently unforgivable sin of texting recruits too much and was fired by Indiana during the season. This was back when the NCAA tried to punish people, and to be fair he had been in trouble for the same thing previously, but it seems quaint now to think that texting recruits could bring down a top program. Every player of consequence left the program, and Tom Crean was hired to pick up the pieces. In his first season a wildly outgunned Hoosiers team finished #209 in the KenPom rankings, which seems like kind of a miracle looking back on it. Fun fact, I was in grad school at Indiana at the time and that team had minimal talent and less athleticism. They went 6-25 (1-17 in Big Ten) and joined St. John’s and Louisville in getting pummeled in the Maui Invitational. Indiana also recorded a win over Chaminade, although only by 2 points…if it had been by 7 points this would be the point where I convince you we live in a computer simulation. The Hoosiers were (unsurprisingly) wildly turnover-prone and couldn’t guard anyone, but compensated a bit by forcing turnovers at a decent rate.
Crean brought in 3 top-100 recruits in his 2nd year, but wasn’t able to land a standout guard or a really stellar recruit in that class or the next. The won-loss record didn’t change much over his first 3 years (6 wins to 10 to 12) but the Hoosiers did get more competitive in their losses and moved up to #82 in KenPom by year 3. The breakthrough was in year 4, with McDonald’s All American Cody Zeller joining the frontcourt. The Hoosiers rose to #9 in KenPom and made the Sweet 16, with a Big Ten title and a top-5 AP poll finish coming the next season.
It may not be very comforting for Louisville fans to read this kind of timeline. 4 months of this type of losing seems unbearable; the idea that it might take 3-4 years to reach the NCAA Tournament seems disastrous. I think a few factors come into play here:
Louisville does have the benefit of the transfer portal to help restock the roster, although that didn’t help much this season. This probably won’t deliver a star, but capable depth (especially at guard) will be crucial
St. John’s had the benefit of a fertile recruiting area in their backyard, where they landed Ponds. Zeller and PG Jordan Hulls were in-state recruits for Indiana. Louisville has Kaleb Glenn, but I don’t know that the Cards have any other local recruits who are likely to be a centerpiece soon.
Almost none of the players on the roster in Year 1 were impactful for St. John’s or Indiana when they made the NCAA Tournament. Heavy turnover should be expected in the coming years, and is probably going to be necessary to upgrade the talent to a sufficient level.
Being terrible in year 1 with a new coach is a massive shock to a fanbase, but it doesn’t mean the program is doomed to wander in the wilderness for years. A turnaround won’t happen overnight, and it will require talent upgrades (especially at guard), but it can happen. Kenny Payne will get more comfortable as a head coach, new talent will erase the memory of this season, and sometime soon the Cardinals will be back in the NCAA Tournament. Until then, hang in there, maybe find a hobby, and tell your friends to subscribe to my newsletter so you can be miserable together.