Let's Learn About: the UCLA Bruins
UCLA will try to celebrate joining the Big Ten by getting their 2nd major win this week, but the Wildcats do some things that match up well with the Bruins
UK’s fanbase unanimously agrees on two things with major non-conference matchups: they’re all must-win, and it stinks that none of them seem to ever be played at Rupp Arena. After two losses and a close win, Big Blue Nation is clamoring for a major statement win against a quality team. Into the arena step the UCLA Bruins, who on the first game of their East Coast jaunt jumped out to a 718-3 lead (approximate) over the Maryland Terrapins before letting up to only win 87-60.
Last season, UK headed into their CBS Sports Classic matchup off a disappointing loss to Notre Dame and proceeded to rout North Carolina by 29 points. Sahvir Wheeler had a monster game (26 points, 8 assists) and the Wildcats seemed to have things figured out. It’s going to be tough to repeat that trick, but there are definitely some ways Kentucky can attack the Bruins successfully.
UCLA is the only team in the country in the top 25 in avoiding turnovers on offense and creating them on defense, which is a hell of a trick. It seems a bit unsustainable and flukey, to be quite honest. UCLA is committing turnovers on 13.8% of possessions and forcing them on 25.0%; that 11.2% differential is the highest since Shaka Smart’s 2013 VCU team. Mick Cronin’s UCLA teams have been very good avoiding turnovers but nothing remarkable at forcing them; last season they were 109th in opponent turnover rate and that represented the best mark in his 3 years at UCLA.
It feels like this game is going to be more about fundamental half-court offensive and defensive quality, rather than domination via turnovers. In that case, I like the Wildcats’ chances based on what they do well and where UCLA might be vulnerable. Hey, what can I say, I’m an optimist! Let me explain what I think might happen…
For my premium subscribers, find out which Cats are likely teed up for a big game, which ones need to step it up, and what might cause UK the most problems…
UCLA on Offense
With a hait tip to Will Warren of Stats by Will for this design, here’s a chart summarizing how effective UCLA players are at scoring in halfcourt offense:
Most of what UCLA does on offense revolves around Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell. They take by far the largest share of UCLA’s shots. Jaquez is a wild weapon on offense, as he’s probably the Bruins’ best pick and roll ballhandler and best post-up player. Campbell is a solid playmaker and low turnover guy at point, but he’s been pretty underwhelming as a scorer this season. He’s never been a good finisher at the rim, but this season he’s been awful hitting just 37% there in halfcourt offense. Campbell seemed to figure out 3 point shooting last season, hitting 41% on almost 4 attempts per game, but that’s regressed to just 33% this season. Last season Campbell had a steady diet of unguarded catch-and-shoot threes, due to both the presence of Johnny Juzang as a creator and Campbell’s history as a 27% 3 point shooter. This season his shots from deep are coming more off the dribble, and he’s not found his groove there.
John Calipari and Mick Cronin are a two-man vanguard trying to hold back the 3 point revolution. UCLA has taken threes only slightly more often than Kentucky in recent years, and this year the Bruins are less likely to chuck it from the cheap seats than the Wildcats. UCLA does have a couple of three point threats in Jaylen Clark and David Singleton, but they do most of their damage from the midrange or in transition.
UCLA’s offensive strategy basically boils down to:
Don’t turn the ball over
Empty the post and let Jaquez & Campbell create inside the arc
Score in transition
Kentucky should actually match up pretty solidly with this. While UK doesn’t force a lot of turnovers (153rd in turnover rate), they do tend to come up with a lot of steals (75th in steal rate) thanks to pressure from Wheeler and Wallace. Kentucky was able to force both Gonzaga and Michigan State to turn the ball over on >20% of possessions, well above their averages.
UK can definitely defend inside the arc, especially against guards and wings. The Cats rank 15th nationally in 2pt Fg% allowed, and are in the top 50 in defending midrange jumpers and at the rim. Their biggest issues have been defending post scorers, but they’ve defended wings and guards well inside the arc:
Vs Michigan State, bigs Malik Hall and Mady Sissoko went 11-18 on twos but wings/guards Joey Hauser, AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker went 7-23 (even with Hauser draining some jumpers)
Vs Gonzaga, bigs Drew Timme and Anton Watson went 14-18 on twos, but wings/guards Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, and Nolan Hickman went 7-13
vs Michigan, Hunter Dickinson went 9-19 on twos but Jett Howard, Kobe Bufkin, and Jaelin Llewellyn went 7-20
Kentucky should have a good shot to contain Campbell, Amari Bailey, and Jaylen Clark in halfcourt offense. Jacob Toppin will likely guard Jaime Jaquez, and he should be able to keep up. Toppin struggles against bulky post scorers, but that’s not Jaquez. Toppin uses his length well to contest jumpers, and has been effective at staying with ballhandling wings. He’ll need to be dialed in, but he can frustrate UCLA’s main weapon.
Kentucky has been an excellent transition defense this season, ranking 13th in effective FG% there. Cason Wallace in particular is a dynamo defending in transition, and UK allows opponents to turn steals into points at a lower rate than almost anyone else. Even if the Wildcats have some turnover issues, they should be able to keep the damage under control.
UCLA isn’t a great offensive rebounding team, but UK is going to have to be much more engaged as a team in defensive rebounding than they were against Yale. Teams who can pull Tshiebwe away from the basket can get a big advantage, as the rest of the Wildcats have really slacked on the defensive boards. UK isn’t likely to force a lot of turnovers, so they can’t give UCLA an advantage in shot volume by letting the Bruins also collect their own misses.
UCLA on Defense
Similar to their offense, the Bruins’ defense is all about turnovers. They force a ton (25.5% of possessions), which is completely out of character for this team with Mick Cronin. They don’t send opponents to the free throw line a lot, but UK doesn’t get there much so that won’t feel like a missed opportunity.
UCLA has been pretty poor at defending inside the arc this season. Weirdly, UCLA gives up a LOT of threes, and most of the time when they lose their opponents take a lot of threes. UK probably won’t do that, but I think there’s some weak spots that UK can exploit. First, UCLA is flat out bad at defending post-ups. Adem Bona is UCLA’s freshman big (who UK recruited), and he ranks in the 2nd percentile defending post-ups per Synergy. If Oscar Tshiebwe doesn’t have Adem Bona in hell, then I don’t know what’s real anymore. UCLA has also been really bad when double-teaming the post this season, and Oscar has started to show more awareness passing out of double teams. Kentucky should let Oscar eat early and often in this game.
The second spot UK can attack is the pick-and-roll, specifically with Sahvir Wheeler. While UCLA’s guards have done a nice job defending this, it’s mostly come from forcing turnovers. UCLA has been aggressive in trapping ballhandlers, but got burned by both Illinois and Baylor with this strategy. Sahvir Wheeler can have trouble in pick and roll against drop coverage as he’s not a strong shooter off the dribble, but when teams challenge him he can make magic happen. If he turns the corner and gets an advantage, Wheeler is excellent at attracting help defenders and kicking the ball to open shooters. He doesn’t turn the ball over often in pick-and-roll, although much of that is because he doesn’t press the issue very much. That could be the problem if he doesn’t find the right balance.
The main thing I’m concerned about is if UCLA is aggressive trapping in pick and roll coverage, and Wheeler’s response is to back the ball out and reset the offense. Kentucky needs to trigger their offense with Wheeler /Tshiebwe pick and rolls, and can’t afford these to go nowhere and waste seconds on the shot clock. This will put pressure on other Wildcats to create off the dribble, and play into a UCLA strength. UCLA loves sending help defenders when a player drives into the middle, and a couple UK players may be vulnerable to turnovers in this: Cason Wallace and Jacob Toppin. Both players have tremendous athletic gifts but don’t yet have great passing vision off the dribble, and could get into trouble with UCLA’s pesky helpers. Additionally, UK can get into trouble with their late shot clock possessions. UCLA has a lot of switchable wings, and they have a very good defense against late clock isolation. Teams have weirdly hit a lot of midrange jumpers against them late, but are hitting just 42% at the rim and 28% from three in the last 5 seconds of the shot clock.
This game feels like it’s going to come down to how well UK can execute the things they like to do: Oscar Tshiebwe post-ups, and Wheeler/Tshiebwe pick and roll. If UK is ready, willing, and able to be effective in these actions, I believe they can win this game handily. I don’t think UCLA can score a ton against UK unless the Wildcats let David Singleton get open looks from deep. If UCLA is able to frustrate Wheeler and make Wallace or Toppin create out of thin air late in possessions, things could get ugly for UK.
I've seen where Bona has frequently gotten in foul trouble as well. Hard to imagine him not getting frustrated trying to contain Oscar.