A(nother) chance for UK to make a statement
The Wildcats have lost both of their games this season against quad-1 opposition, but fortunately they’ll get several chances in December to straighten things out. This game is taking place in London (England, not Laurel County) in a cool neutral site environment. True, Kentucky does tend to travel well, and I imagine there will be mass confusion when dueling chants of “Go Big Blue” and “Go Blue” break out, but this should be a pretty level playing field for each team to show what they’ve got.
Kentucky has been doomed by poor 3 point shooting in their 2 headline contests so far (13 for 50 combined) and the defense has been leaky against better teams, with Oscar Tshiebwe in particular looking rusty coming back from preseason knee surgery. The Wildcats have some offensive identity issues to iron out, and need to find something reliable besides "Oscar Tshiebwe gets rebounds”, and this will be a good chance to do so in a spotlight.
Michigan: Big name, not as much game
When this series was announced a few years ago before COVID delayed it, it seemed like a clash of titans. Kentucky is Kentucky, and Michigan has been to 3 Sweet 16s and an Elite Eight in the last 5 NCAA Tournaments, but this matchup isn’t quite the headliner that would be expected. Last season Michigan was 17-14 before the NCAA Tournament, where they earned an 11 seed and made a run to the Sweet 16 thanks to Rick Barnes’ tendency to exit the tournament earlier than expected. This season the Wolverines check in at #48 in KenPom’s ratings, while Bart Torvik is ever less optimistic at #67.
Michigan was blown out by Arizona State, which is puzzling and humiliating like having a 5 year old make fun of your outfit…you don’t take them seriously, then you get burned and just hope nobody else noticed and you can move past it. Then the Wolverines needed a late 13-2 run and OT to beat Ohio. They did hang with a very strong Virginia team before giving up a lead late, but things are not humming on all cylinders yet for Michigan.
In 4 seasons, Juwan Howard has established a blueprint for how his teams play. The score effectively inside the arc, limit their own turnovers, and don’t take any chances on defense that might result in a turnover or foul. They usually clean up the defensive glass and guard the interior well. They are on their 3rd straght year with a transfer PG, and that’s usually worked well along with length on the wings and size on the interior. This season, the Wolverines’ shaky start has been driven by 1) supporting cast struggles on offenses, 2) leaky transition defense, and 3) little interior support on defense.
After the break, get the full story ($)…
The Dickinson and Howard show
Michigan’s offensive threat is similar to Edgar Allen Poe’s “Cask of Amontillado”, in that there are really only two characters worth naming or referencing. Instead of Montresor and Fortunato, the Wolverines have Hunter Dickinson and Jett Howard. Sure Kobe Bufkin can score in transition, and college hoops fans probably remember Joey Baker from Duke, but if you play Michigan and get dragged by anyone other than those two then it’s a huge surprise.
Borrowing from Will Warren (of Stats by Will, another great Substack focused on Tennessee basketball), here’s a look at Michigan’s roster and how effective they are from scoring at all three levels:
In halfcourt offense, there isn’t much of anyone beyond that initial duo who can score anywhere with efficiency at any useful volume. Tarris Reed has taken a whopping 12 shots all year in limited minutes, and Terrance Williams is a 4 for 8 from midrange, but you’re pretty much just focusing on Dickinson and Jett Howard when you gameplan. So what do those two do well?
Hunter Dickinson
Dickinson is the kind of big who only exists in college anymore. Over 7 feet tall, kinda lumbering, posts up a lot, and an All-American because of it. He won’t play in the NBA but he’s got a very nice skill set for a college offense. He’s mostly a post-up player and pretty good at it, scoring in the 81st percentile on those plays per Synergy. Last season Dickinson showed off a decent 3 point shot, but that hasn’t shown up so far this season in any productive way. Dickinson is a very good rebounder and very good shot blocker, but probably wouldn’t be considered “great” at either one. He has a decent touch from midrange (8 for 19 away from the rim), but probably his best non-scoring skill is his passing from the post. Dickinson is excellent as passing out of double teams and finding shooters on the perimeter.
Jett Howard
Jett Howard is a little less renowned version of Jabari Smith from Auburn last year, a deadly shooter who doesn’t get to the rim much but is wildly efficient on offense. Howard is hitting 44% from three on 7 attempts per game along with 65% from two. He’s taken only 4 shots at the rim in halfcourt offense, however, so it’s jumper city…but he hits them. He’s been a solid passer, putting up 17 assists vs just 6 turnovers, but he basically doesn’t rebound at all despite being 6’8”.
Other guys
Kobe Bufkin can really finish in transition, but there’s nothing else to worry about really. Bufkin gets left alone on the perimeter just like Sahvir Wheeler, and Jaelin Llewellyn deserves the same treatment. The other issue is the Wolverines get very little dynamic playmaking. Their guards are all below average or worse scoring out on pick-and-roll, and nobody even averages 3 assists per game. Their best hope is UK over-helping on defense, the Wolverines attacking closeouts, and finding open shooters (hopefully for them, Jett Howard). The Wolverines do like to get out in transition, especially after defensive rebounds, so that’s likely where they’ll get sneaky points to help their offense seem better.
Sloppy transition defense
The Wolverines don’t hit the offensive glass under Juwan Howard. They are 309th in the nation in offensive rebound rate this season. They prefer to get back into transition defense, and force opponents to score against what is usually a tough halfcourt defense. This season they have been a bit vulnerable in transition, especially to threee-pointers. Per Synergy, opponents are 7-15 on transition threes. This is a huge opportunity for Kentucky, as the Wildcats get out in transition a ton (1/3 of their shots in transition, 13th in the nation) and take a ton of threes there (45% of their transition shots). Reeves, Fredrick, and Wallace combine to hit 47% on 7 combined 3pt attempts per game, just in transition.
I’d imagine this is a point of emphasis for Michigan’s coaching staff, as they’d been much better the past couple seasons. It’s worth watching if UK’s Reeves/Fredrick/Wallace trio can get their customary 7 transition 3PA, or if Michigan can clamp down on them. If Michigan can stymie them, how does Kentucky counter to keep getting good looks?
A surprisingly ineffective frontline
Michigan usually has a great 2 point defense and strong defensive rebounding, and this keys their defense. Despite playing only 2 quality opponents so far, Michigan’s defense is well below their standards of the last 3 years because their frontcourt players around Hunter Dickinson aren’t bringing much to the table on defense.
While Jett Howard is a terrific shooter, he is a shockingly bad rebounder. Despite standing 6’8”, 215lbs, he has the lowest offensive and defensive rebound rates of any Wolverines rotation player. He’s blocked 10 shots, but 6 of them were midrange jumpers or threes; he’s not much of a threat on the inside. Terrance Williams is a solid rebounder at power forward, but offers absolutely no shot-blocking threat at all.
Michigan’s forwards also have struggled when they switch in pick-and-roll and cover the ballhandler. Their forwards have not been successful at all guarding in space. Dickinson doesn’t even try, as he drops back…which is probably the right call. Kentucky doesn’t really have anyone but their centers set screens, but if they can attack Michigan’s other frontcourt players in the post or in space, they can eat.
Where can Kentucky find success?
UK likely will have some success with transition threes, which should bolster the scoring. Michigan State was the only team who limited UK in volume of transition 3PA, at least for the preferred trio; Reeves/Fredrick/Wallace were 1 for 4 on transition threes that game.
Oscar Tshiebwe has really struggled scoring on post-ups this season, and taking on Hunter Dickinson won’t help. It may be a lingering effect of knee surgery, but Tshiebwe is hitting 48% and has 5 turnover in 27 possessions this season; last season he hit 57% and had 19 turnovers in 168 post-up possessions. If Kentucky can post-up against Michigan’s other frontline players (with Tshiebwe or anyone else) they may have some success.
The Wheeler/Tshiebwe pick and roll may not be very successful in this game due to the way Michigan covers it. With Dickinson dropping, Sahvir Wheeler won’t likely be able to get to the rim where he’s most dangerous. Oscar also may be tempted to pop out to midrange and take open jumpers, where he’s much less effective. Every time that happens, UK will be playing right into Michigan’s hands. UK should instead let players like Wallace, Reeves, and Fredrick run more pick and roll, as they are shooting threats who may get open looks with Dickinson dropping. They should also look to run pick and rolls with players like Toppin or Livingston as the screener, hoping for Michigan’s frontcourt players to switch. UK’s guards should be able to absolutely roast the Wolverine forwards.
Ballscreen handoffs could also be a quality action for UK in this game. UK’s shooters are 5 for 14 from three off handoffs this season, even with CJ Fredrick going 0 for 7. Michigan hasn’t defended handoffs well this season, and Dickinson is hesitant to step out to help on these. UK needs to exploit the fact that Dickinson needs to stay out of foul trouble, and doesn’t guard well in space.
Kentucky should absolutely win this game, and a strong performance after the Gonzaga loss would be a nice palate cleanser. If UK doesn’t get creative on offense to attack Michigan’s weaknesses, this might become a bit of a rock fight…but UK should have enough to grind that out.