Let's Learn About: the Kansas State Wildcats
Kentucky advances to take on their fellow felines
Kentucky dispatched a tricky Providence Friars and their ultra-creepy mascot in the first round. That’s no small thing given UK’s struggles against top offenses, but they established a lead in the first half and never relinquished it. The game largely went as I expected from my preview:
Let’s quickly recap what I predicted:
Kentucky should own the boards: This happened (80% def reb rate, 44% off reb rate)
Providence will probably get to the line more than Kentucky: Late fouling by Providence pushed UK ahead 13-11 in FTA; the most surprising thing to me was that Providence didn’t get to the line more
Providence can guard the rim: Kentucky shot 9-21 on layups and dunks
The game was decided by two things that I mentioned in my full preview (for paid subscribers, only $19.50/year now through June 1!) Kentucky scored 18 points on their 18 offensive rebounds, compared to 2 points on 8 offensive rebounds for the Friars. Second, UK established their lead in the first half when Providence went to some bench lineups. The Wildcats have been pulling away when playing 4 or more starters against opponent lineups with 3 or fewer starters, and that held up again. UK was +11 in 8 possessions when 4 or more UK starters took on 3 or fewer Providence starters.
Now Kentucky takes on a very different style of opponent in the quick turnaround of the NCAA Tournament. In this game, I think some keys will be:
Kansas State’s ability to force turnovers: Kentucky has been turnover-prone against similar defenses, and can’t afford to give away possessions
Kentucky getting to the FT line: Kansas State fouls a lot, and Kentucky has beaten tough defenses by converting at the line
Who can win at the rim: K-State gets to the rim a lot, but Kentucky tends to finish better there. Neither team is great at defending the rim, although K-State has been very effective the last 10 games. Can they keep it up?
Subscribe now (Just $19.50/year until June 1!) and see if you can figure out which team I mean when I refer to “the Wildcats”….
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