Let's Learn About: Mike James
UofL's freshman guard missed last year and has shown flashes this year. Can he be a building block?
Mike James had to sit out last season and watch as the Louisville basketball program burned to the ground, and now that he’s healthy he’s stuck as part of an ill-constructed roster that can’t figure out anything right now. He came in as the #76 recruit in the 2021 class per RSCI, so he should be able to be a contributor at an ACC program at least. Now he’s the 4th leading scorer for an 0-7 team, putting up 7ppg and only 9.3 pts per 40 minutes. That feels like a disappointment, but I think there’s reason to believe that James could be a contributor to a much better Louisville team.
James has an unusually small role on offense considering that he’s basically one of two guards with a pulse on the roster, but the other guard is El Ellis and spends most of the game with the ball so I guess those are the breaks. James is one of the few Cardinals who has flashed some real skill on offense this season (in his case, drawing free throws and shot selection) so it’s a bit surprising that the coaching staff can’t find a way to use him more. James is a legitimate spot-up threat on a team that is terrible at spot-up shooting but tries to do it a lot, so there’s room for a bigger role.Like everyone else on Floyd Street, he struggled mightily the last 4 games against better competition and has had glaring turnover issues this season.
Overall, Louisville has been demonstrably better in a few key ways with James in, and there have been flashes to indicate that he could really help a more balanced Louisville attack compete against power conference teams. After the break, I’ll explain more about Mike James ($)
Something like an offensive threat
On a Louisville team that is struggling mightily on offense, James is what passes for an offensive weapon. He is 2nd on the team in 2pt FG% (53%, behind Withers) and tied for 2nd in 3pt FG% (33%, behind Traynor). James also has the highest FT rate on the team, having drawn 19 FTA vs 34 FGA, and he’s hit 79% from the line.
So, if he’s one of the most accurate shooters, gets to the line, and hits free throws, why does he average so few points per game and per 40 minutes? The answer is that he takes an incredibly low portion of shots. He gets just 13% of UofL’s shots when he plays, just 7th on the team. Over the last 4 games, that’s dipped even further to just 12% of UofL shots. He’s basically getting El Ellis’ scraps at this points.
This seems like a suboptimal strategy. Yes, James has 16 turnovers vs just 6 assists this season, but that’s basically par for the course for the Cardinals this season. James takes quality shots, getting to the rim and three point line equally and almost never shooting from midrange. His finishing at the rim is a little below the team average at 53%, but it’s not bad by any means. James is a very good spot-up shooter, with a 55% effective FG% on those plays per Synergy; Louisville’s team eFG% is 41% on them. So why isn’t this guy a bigger part of the offense?
Impact on the team
Overall, Louisville has been better with James in the game this season. The team’s adjusted scoring margin per 100 possessions is 7.5 pts better with him in. Louisville scores 89.3 pts/100 and allows 102.6 per 100 with him in, and scores 69.6 per 100 and allows 114.5 per 100 with him out. The team’s 3point FG% is 34% with him in and a ghastly 15% with him out.
James is one of the few Cardinals with a pulse on defense. Louisville has been the worst defense in the country against pick-and-roll ballhandlers, allowing 1.2 points per possession. James has allowed just 4 points on 9 pick-and-roll possessions he’s defended.
In the first 3 games, Louisville was comfortably ahead of opponents with James in. They outscored Bellarmine, Wright State, and App State by +21 when James played, but lost by -24 when he sat.
Louisville has also looked shockingly competent when James plays without El Ellis. For the season Louisville is +2 in 44 possession with James in and Ellis sitting, including +3 in 33 possessions over the past 4 games. Considering that Louisville has lost those games by 102 total points, it’s pretty stunning that they have any pattern of winning with certain players. This isn’t skewed by any 1 game; Louisville was not outscored in any of the last 4 games with James in and Ellis out. James’ share of the offense jumps to 16% of shots with Ellis out, James has a 70% eFG% this season with Ellis out, and he has even more free throw attempts than field goal attempts.
Mike James is the only perimeter player for UofL who scores with above-average efficiency, gets to the free throw line, and avoids useless midrange jumpers. Louisville’s offensive structure is doing nobody any favors, but is especially holding back James by making him near invisible. James also shows some fight in defending opposing ballhandlers, which has already become a rare sight. He can absolutely be part of the next good Louisville men’s basketball team if the coaching staff and rest of the roster can provide any kind of support.