Let's Learn About: Jae'lyn Withers
4 years, 3 seasons, 3 coaches, 3 roles as a Cardinal
Jae’lyn Withers is the last man standing from Louisville’s celebrated 2019 recruiting class, which could be called the “What If? Six”. There were 3 top-100 recruits in Samuell Williamson, David Johnson, and Aidan Igiehon; 2 potential stretch forwards in Quinn Slazinski and Withers; and a stout 2 guard in Josh Nickelberry. Withers has actually started almost as many games at Louisville (49) as the rest combined (53), and with 17 more points will become the only one of the sextet to reach 500 points scored at Louisville. Johnson at least left for the NBA, while the other 4 all transferred after reaching various levels of disappointment. Even Johnson’s Louisville career felt lacking, as he only began to blossom as a freshman late in the year prior to the COVID cancellation and spent his sophomore year ceding the keys of the offense to Carlik Jones. Withers has endured through it all, showing just enough balance of promise and disappointment to be a complet enigma.
As a freshman Withers filled in at center on an undersized team and made the All-ACC Freshman Team, posting 10 points and 8 rebounds per game. The next season he was shifted to the perimeter as a stretch four and he floundered through what at the time seemed like a nightmare season, not even scoring 6 points per game. This season, a logjam of bigs has led to him playing about half of his minutes at small forward as Louisville found out what a actual nightmare was.
While his freshman season was his high water mark from a traditional stats perspective, Withers has emerged as a very important piece this season. He’s one of the players who has improved the most during the season, even though his minutes aren’t showing it. Very quietly, Withers has become part of some extremely effective groupings for the Cardinals. If Louisville is going to add wins to their ledger in 2023, it will likely come from solidifying a role for Withers.
For premium subscribers, find out where Withers is having the most success and the lineup trio that’s responsible for almost everything good that’s happened for the Cards lately…
An important piece, but an uncertain role
You could make a very convincing argument that Withers has been Louisville’s 2nd most important player this season. While he’s tied for 3rd in point per game, he’s easily 2nd in points per 40 minutes (14.1) behind only El Ellis. Withers also has the 2nd best defensive rebound rate on the team behind only Sydney Curry, despite playing small forward a significant amount of time. Withers also has the highest steal rate among rotation regulars, collecting a steal on just over 2% of possessions he plays. Withers also is 1 of only 2 Cardinals taking greater than 20% of the team’s shots when he’s in the game, alongside Ellis of course. Given that 20% is 1/5 of the shots, that means only he and Ellis take a greater share than average. Withers’ effective FG% of 50% is solid, given that eFG% tends to decrease with volume and the only other Cards who are better (Mike James & Sydney Curry) take a much smaller share of Louisville’s shots.
It has been an odd development that Withers role has been shrinking in recent games. He played a total of 34 minutes against NC State and Kentucky, going 0-4 from the field with 3 points combined in the two games. The following game against Syracuse saw him come off the bench for the first time all season, although he thrived with 10 points and 7 rebounds in limited minutes. The timing seems odd as Withers was playing his best basketball leading up to that NC State game. In the 5 games prior he had hit 53% of his threes, and taken 3 per game. He was averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. For a player who hardly took any threes as a freshman and then hit just 23% as a sophomore, this seemed like a mini-leap towards becoming what passes for a cornerstone on a team that was 2-10 at the time.
I can only imagine that something must have happened in practice or off the court to merit a demotion, as Withers was rounding into form and was an important cog as Louisville got their only 2 wins of the season. I would hope that he is able to regain a more prominent role, and I think there’s reason to believe that even better things are in store for him.
Finding offensive success
After switching roles so much, Withers is finally starting to find ways to stand out on offense this season. Playing small forward on a team with multiple post-up bigs is a challenge for someone who played center as a freshman, but he’s started to become a multi-faceted weapon on offense. Withers is having his most success as a scorer when he plays small forward, as he’s able to bully smaller players inside. When playing small forward, Withers gets about 41% of his shots at the rim and converts an excellent 75%; when playing power forward, he takes just 30% of his shots there and is hitting just 50%. He’s also been able to step outside and hit threes this season; after hitting 23% on just over 2 attempts per game last season he’s at 38% on almost 3 per game this season.
Withers’s main weakness is the midrange game as he’s a very poor shooter off the dribble. He’s hit just 1 of 4 three pointers off the dribble and 4 of 16 two pointers. Thankfully, he’s been eliminating that from his repertoire. Over the last 5 games he’s taken just 1 two point jumper, down from 13 in the first 10 games.
Withers has found his groove outside the arc. He’s hit 11 of 30 catch and shoot threes (37%), and has flashed some ability to drive when defenders close out. He’s been much better driving right after a closeout (4 for 7 shooting vs 6 for 14 driving left). Withers is probably due for a little uptick in his shooting as well, as he’s actually hitting better on guarded catch and shoot threes (41%) than unguarded (37%). He could legitimately be a 40% three point shooter on a strong volume of shots.
His emergence as a scoring threat has allowed Louisville to play some interesting lineups, and there’s actually some glimmers of hope that the Cards could get competitive in some ACC games with the right groups together…
Three is the key
Over the first 9 games of the season, Louisville wasn’t much different whether Jae’lyn Withers was in the game or not. But over the last 6 games, Louisville has outscored opponents by +26 with him in and lost by -53 points with him out. He’s played almost exactly half the time over that stretch, playing 199 possessions and sitting for 206.
The entirety of the +26 margin is coming during time where Withers plays at power forward as Louisville starts to create spacing around a single big and the dribble penetration of El Ellis. With Withers at power forward, the Cards are hitting 43% of their threes over the past 6 games and shooting them at a higher clip. This gets magnified when Louisville puts their best shooters on the court along with Withers, however.
Over the last 6 games, the trio of Mike James, JJ Traynor, and Withers have played just 52 possessions together. In those 52 possessions, Louisville has outscored opponents by +16 points. This isn’t a case where they just played against Western Kentucky and Florida A&M, either; this group was +12 in 8 possessions vs Syracuse and +3 in 18 possessions vs Lipscomb. Each of these three is hitting 37% or better from 3 on roughly 2 attempts or more per game, and the spacing they provide is helping the offense hum. El Ellis is taking advantage of this spacing, too. In these 52 possessions (about 30 minutes), he has scored 24 points with 9 assists to just 4 turnovers, and a 73% effective FG%.
Other Cardinals aren’t able to replicate the effective spacing these 3 provide together. Over the same 6 games, similar lineups aren’t as successful:
Withers/Traynor with no James is +1 in 49 poss
James/Withers with no Traynor is +1 in 94 poss
James/Traynor with no Withers is -33 in 95 poss
Louisville doesn’t suddenly have the makings of a top 25 team just by playing these three together, as there are some unustainable things driving their results. The Cards are hitting 57% of their threes with this trio, and opponents are turning the ball over on 29% of possessions. However, there is a MASSIVE gap between how effective these lineups are and how effective basically anything else is. If Louisville starts featuring El Ellis with James/Traynor/Withers and a big man, I believe they can create an offense with NBA-style spacing principles that is effective enough to keep them competitive with several ACC teams. That gives the Cardinals enough margin of error on defense to hopefully pick up a few ACC wins and get some momentum going. A major key to this is Withers’ effectiveness at playing inside and out, as he’s developed the perimeter shot to go with his interior game while also rebounding at a high level. Louisville is lucky Withers stuck around through the turmoil of the past couple seasons, and should make him a major piece for the rest of this season.