Kentucky's defense has collapsed....why?
UK can't stop anyone in the last month. The reason is core to how the Cats are built, unfortunately.
On the morning of December 18th, Kentucky Wildcats fans were wondering what was so wrong with their Cats. The day before, UK had suffered their 3rd loss in a high-profile non conference game, this time to the UCLA Bruins. The Wildcats had put up just 53 in a game dominated by the Bruins. My article following the game was titled “The issues with Kentucky’s offense”. Little did I or anyone else know what was in store.
Since that game, Kentucky is 3-3 and ranks a horrendous 202nd per Bart Torvik. The Wildcats are 24th on offense but a shocking 350th in defense over this last month. I’ll say that again…350th in defense. Out of 363 teams. In their 4 conference games, Kentucky has the worst defense on a per-possession basis in the SEC. That isn’t just struggling on defense, it’s collapsing.
There are 3 key things going on, and that’s what I’ll dive into and explain today for my premium subscribers:
Bad luck: Some opponents are just hitting outside shots at a higher rate than expected
Inability to defend inside the arc: Of UK’s first 10 opponents, only Gonzaga (67%) and UCLA (49%) hit better than 44.1% on 2 pointers. UK allowed 5 straight opponents to top 50% on 2s, including Florida A&M and Louisvil,e bfore South Carolina only hit 44.4%. Additionally, UK is simply not ending possessions often enough when opponents miss. While they are 3rd in offensive rebounding in the last 6 games, they are 232nd in defensive rebounding.
Abysmal defense in transition: In SEC play, UK opponents are hitting 71% of their twos and 36% of threes for a 66% effective FG%. In non-conference games vs top-100 opponents, UK allowed an effective FG% of 50% in transition.
Bad luck is bad luck, nothing you can really do. But the 2nd and 3rd issues above, well those have real causes, and I’m afraid Kentucky fans might not like it.
For premium subscribers, find out where UK is breaking down. Plus, I recommend a fix that revolves around benching one of UK’s starters…..
Where UK has fallen apart
The simple answer is “defense”, but a better answer is much more complex. The Wildcats are suddenly allowing opponents to score at a much higher rate in several key offensive actions (as defined and charted by Synergy, thanks to them for having a ridiculously thorough data set). Let’s look at things relatively apples-to-apples and compare UK’s SEC games against their non-conference games against teams in the KenPom top 100 (Mich St, Gonzaga, Mich, UCLA, Yale). Here’s the data from Synergy on how often opponents use these actions and their per-possession scoring:
In the 3 most common types of actions opponents run, Kentucky is worse. The Wildcats are MUCH worse on two lesser-used actions. They’re a little better defending roll men in pick and roll and cutters, but those don’t happen enough to make a big impact. Meanwhile, UK is great at defending post-ups but opponents almost never use them.
There are a few things happening here, and the least interesting is that opponents are getting lucky in a few areas. Synergy has added “shot quality” metrics based on the player, shot location, and whether the shot is defended or not. Using this, they quantify “shooting luck” based on the points scored on each shot compared to the expectation, as derived from the shot quality factors. UK opponents are getting a luckier in a few types of actions, especially compared to earlier in the season:
UK opponents are getting “luckier” on most of these shot types, and on spot-up shots they are scoring better despite taking lower quality shots. I think we can conclude that the outside shooting is largely a result of opponent luck, and isn’t a critical issue.
But what about the other actions? There are real issues UK is having in defending these. First let’s take pick & roll ballhandlers and isolation, since these are similar offensive actions with aggressive ballhandlers looking to score. The opponent shot quality in pick and roll is about the same as it was earlier in the year, and in isolation the shot quality for opponents has gotten much worse. The first chart showed that points per possession were up, and in isolation they were up significantly…but this shows points per shot are only up a little. What gives?
The answer lies in what’s happening when opponents don’t take a shot from the field; namely, turnovers and fouls. When Kentucky defends SEC ballhandlers in pick and roll, those ballhandlers are drawing free throws 2x as often as they did in the top non-conference matchups. On isolation plays, SEC ballhandlers draw free throws 4.5x as often and turn the ball over 1/4 as much!
I went back and watched every defensive possession Kentucky played in their worst defensive halves of SEC play, as well as some of their defensive play in non-conference. The 2 main issues are that Kentucky’s bigs are being pulled away from the paint and forced to defend in space, either when their man sets a screen or when the opponent has a big man who is comfortable away from the basket. These possessions are a disaster. In pick and roll, Oscar Tsheibwe in particular is completely lost. He doesn’t pressure the ballhandler to make them pass the ball, he isn’t a shotblocking threat so he can’t drop to the rim, and he isn’t quick enough to drop back and then step up to pressure the dribbler when they try to attack the basket. He gets caught in no man’s land repeatedly, often doing nothing productive, and opposing guards either get to drive to the basket or take an open jumper, unbothered. It’s not just Tshiebwe, either. Missouri opened up the 2nd half against Kentucky by repeatedly isolating against Lance Ware and driving on him. South Carolina put Damion Collins in these actions and got several good shots. The biggest offender is clearly Tshiebwe however, and opponents basically put him in pick and roll defense every chance they get.
A side effect of this is that Tshiebwe is often pulled away from his defensive rebounding responsibilities. He’s collecting just under 25% of opponent misses in SEC play, down from over 33% in non-conference. As a team UK is getting just 67% of opponent misses in these games with Oscar in, vs 75% in these earlier set. Doing the quick math, Oscar’s teammates collect 42% of opponent misses in both sets of games, but the fact that the main rebounder for the Wildcats is out of position is massively hurting their team rebounding.
This leads to more offensive rebounds, obviously, which as you see above is another play type where opponents are scoring more frequently. A major factor is that UK’s big men are scrambling to get back to protect the basket and aren’t terrific shotblockers, so opponents have more room to convert on quick putbacks. Because SEC opponents are spreading the floor more with their bigs and the lane is less crowded, opponents are also turning the ball over much less after getting an offensive rebounding. In non-conference, UK forced turnovers 17% of the time when an opponent tried a putback; in SEC play that’s down to 10%. The offensive spacing opponents are playing with is putting UK’s bigs in positions where they struggle to defend, it pulls them away from rebounding duties, and creates more open space around the basket for opponents to score quickly on putbacks.
There’s one other area where opponents are scoring more effectively, and that’s in transition. The issue here is being caused in part by UK’s offense. Under John Calipari, Kentucky has always prioritized offensive rebounding over shooting. I’m not certain, but I suspect the idea is that Calipari would rather focus on rebounding misses and trying to score around the rim rather than submit to the randomness of outside shooting. UK has always been in the top 100 in offensive rebounding rate under Calipari and frequently in the top 10. In SEC play, teams have been sagging into the paint on defense and encouraging UK’s guards to take midrange jumpers. These shots miss something like 60% of the time, and UK is aggressive in trying to chase down these offensive rebounds. The Wildcats are getting more of these (42% in SEC vs 33% in non-conf) but they are paying a hefty price. While UK crashes for offensive rebounds, opponents are looking to get out in transition almost as soon as they get a defensive rebound. In SEC play opponents are getting a shot within the first 10 seconds on 32% of defensive rebounds, vs just 24% in non-conference top-100 games. They are hitting 71% of their twos in transition vs just 52% in non-conference, and drawing fouls over 3x as often in transition. This is due to Kentucky’s increasing reliance on offensive rebounds as their primary source of offense, leading to poor transition defense.
I pointed out the problems, but are there any solutions? I guess there are, although UK is limited by their current roster, their bedrock style of play, and general stubborness of the coaching staff.
If John Calipari called me right now and asked me to recommend a fix, here’s what I’d say: bench Oscar Tshiebwe for Ugonna Onyenso and refocus the team on perimeter creators.
Benching the reigning unanimous player of the year is not an easy decision, it wouldn’t be popular among fans, and I honestly don’t know if I’d have the courage to do it myself. But I think it has to be done. Oscar’s poor defense, particularly in pick and roll, is the most significant issue UK has in halfcourt defense right now and is clearly the priority for every opponent to attack. UK could tweak their pick and roll coverage, but they’d just be opening other avenues for opponent to attack. If Oscar jumped out aggressively to trap the ballhandler, he might force a pass, but he’s just as likely to become a traffic cone for them to dribble around. Even if there is a pass, UK is defending 3 on 4 and trying to recover with a big man who does that poorly.
I believe UK needs to play Onyenso as their primary center. He has shown elite shotblocking instincts in his limited playing time, as well as finishing at the rim and rebounding. He’s the only big who has shown himself to be a defensive force. He may be vulnerable when defending in space, but his shotblocking skills and quick-twitch athleticism give him a better chance of recovering and disrupting shots. When defending more traditional bigs, Onyenso relives pressure on UK’s guards by providing a safety net of shotblocking; this would allow UK’s guards to pressure more aggressively and take some risks in pursuit of turnovers. Turnovers lead to easy baskets (hopefully) and eliminate a chance for the opponent to exploit UK’s halfcourt defense.
Oscar’s main skills are his rebounding and his post scoring. As I outlined above, UK’s pursuit of offensive rebounds is leaving them vulnerable to transition baskets. I believe Kentucky should reduce their reliance on offensive rebounds and focus on getting back to stop transition scores. When a shot goes up, instead of 2-3 Cats crashing the glass I’d rather see 3-4 Wildcats sprinting back to stop transition shots, with a much more minimal rebounding effort. This means UK needs to be more efficient on offense, and I believe they could accomplish that sans Tshiebwe by having Onyenso function solely as a roll man in pick and roll, or as a weakside lob threat as guards look to create. With Wheeler, Wallace, and Reeves Kentucky has 3 creative guards who can either get their own shot or open shots for others. by clearing the lane of post-ups, there will be more space for these guards to get to the rim. UK will need to largely eliminate the midrange shots in favor of higher-efficiency shots; basically layups and threes. It’s a major stylistic shift that probably won’t happen, but if you’re going to bench your All-American big man you’ll have to rethink your offense.
In order to fix their abysmal defense and save their season, Kentucky needs to do something drastic. Because of the physical limitations of the bigs who play the most, Kentucky can’t change the results a whole lot without changing the rotation. I’d expect UK will try more subtle tweaks like sending more help when Oscar is getting barbecued in pick and roll; this will likely just leave shooters open and lead to frustration. The bottom line is that Kentucky cannot construct a strong defense with Oscar Tshiebwe on the court if teams are going to have him defend in space. Tshiebwe is a great post defender, but more and more smart coaches understand that post-ups are inefficient offense. As teams move to playing more mobile bigs who can shoot and handle the ball, Kentucky needs defenders who can counter that or risk being left behind….like they are right now.