Kentucky vs Louisville: Keys to the Game

What's likely to make the difference for each team?

Louisville and Kentucky will face off on the final day of 2022, and both teams want nothing more than a New Year, New Them. The Cardinals went 9-26 in the calendar year, and Kentucky is 6-9 against top 50 opponents and became the 10th 2-seed to lose to a 15-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Neither team can fix all that ails them on the final day of the year no matter the outcome, but each team can make a positive statements by putting up a strong performance against their rival. What’s likely to make the difference between a good performance or a bad one? Where is each team likely to find an advantage? Luckily, I spend an inordinate amount of time analyzing each of these teams so that you, dear reader, can pursue happiness instead and then read my analysis.

Let’s start with the Louisville Cardinals…

Louisville

2-11, #256 in KenPom (#313 in offense, #182 on defense)

Likely starters: PG El Ellis, SG Mike James, F Jae’lyn Withers, F Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, F Sydney Curry

What’s been working?

Well, not much. A disastrous offseason of roster-building left them with on ballhandler (Ellis) and infinity power forwards. Huntley-Hatfield and Curry are largely redundant, as both can finish around the rim and rebound a bit but offer no shooting, passing, or shot-blocking. Both bigs were impactful around the rim against Western Kentucky and NC State, but they tend to struggle against defensive help. Louisville has actually been having success lately when playing Jae’lyn Withers and JJ Traynor together as bigs who can spot-up, and letting El Ellis drive and kick. Lineups with those 3 outscored Western Ky, Florida A&M, and Lipscomb by +23 points, but barely played against NC State. The outside shooting with these groups is unsustainably good at 64%, but they get a lot of open shots with defenses collapsing on Ellis and opposing bigs not closing out.

Lineups with only 1 interior big also have been more effective on defense for Louisville, forcing turnovers on 26% of opponent possessions the last 4 vs just 11% with 2 bigs. Wing defenders Mike James and Kamari Lands are long and stay active, so they can be effective in spurts.

What’s not been working?

Louisville has been bad in transition on both offense (46% eFG%, 16th worst in D-1) and defense (allowing 62% eFG%, 18th worst in D-1). Louisville turns the ball over like crazy, ranking 353rd in the country, and assist on 41.5% of their baskets, 347th in the country. The Cards are also one of the worst midrange shooting teams in the country, hitting just 28% there, although they have at least cut down on their attempts their lately. They also are in the bottom 5 teams in the country in guarding pick and roll ballhandlers, per Synergy; El Ellis and Sydney Curry are an especially poor duo guarding this action.

Kentucky Wildcats

8-4, #13 in KenPom (#26 offense, #21 defense)

Likely starters: PG Sahvir Wheeler, G Cason Wallace, F Chris Livingston, F Lance Ware, F Oscar Tshiebwe

What’s been working?

Tshiebwe is an the best rebounder in the country, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebound rate. Kentucky has also shot the three well, ranking 10th in the nation at 39.5%. Kentucky likes to fast break, with 30% of their shots coming within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (29th in the country). Sahvir Wheeler is a strong playmaker, averaging 6.5 assists per game with a 3:1 assist/turnover ratio. Freshman guard Cason Wallace has been an offensive force, hitting 47% of his threes and putting up a 61% effective FG%. On defense, Kentucky defends well inside the arc limiting opponents to 44% on twos (31st in the country). Wildcat opponents end up taking a large portion of midrange shots, as the perimeter defenders limit penetration and Kentucky tends to make opponents work deep into the shot clock.

What hasn’t been working?

Kentucky’s rotation have been a mess, with all sorts of lineup and rotation shuffling. Ware and Livingston started the last 2 games, but were playing sporadically before that…Ware played 10 minutes total across 4 games before getting 24 minutes vs UCLA. Kentucky’s outside shooters (Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick) have combined to hit just 6 of 33 threes in UK’s 4 losses; Fredrick may not even play due to a dislocated finger. Tshiebwe has been prone to turnovers and missed shots when opponents double-team the post, and UK doesn’t really have a backup plan on offense besides working the ball to him. Jacob Toppin has had a nightmare year at PF, hitting just 3 of 21 from three and getting benched for non-shooter Ware. UK’s tendency to play two bigs has been exposed on defense the last two games, as Tshiebwe and Ware struggle to contain ballhandlers or close out shooters.

Keys to the game

For Louisville

They’ll need Curry and Huntley-Hatfield to bully their way inside against Kentucky’s lack of shotblocking from the jump (assuming freshman Ugonna Onyenso doesn’t play much). Teams don’t post up Kentucky much as Tshiebwe is extremely strong and tough to move, but Lance Ware can be pushed around. If that doesn’t work, Louisville will need to give significant time to Withers/Traynor lineups and take advantage of Kentucky’s two-big lineups on defense. Withers is good at attacking closeouts and finishing at the rim, so he can have a good game today for Louisville if they try to spread the floor. El Ellis needs to avoid the urge to drive into the lane and create tough shots for himself, as Kentucky will likely pay a lot of attention to him. Mike James could have success today, as he’s significantly bigger than Kentucky’s guards and is a strong finisher around the rim.

On defense, Louisville has to crash the boards hard. Their wing size with Withers, Traynor, Lands, and James needs to be effective at rebounding over Kentucky’s smaller perimeter players. Louisville doesn’t foul much, but they might want to get physical with Oscar Tshiebwe as he can be prone to poor FT shooting games. Lance Ware is also a poor FT shooter, so sending him to the line can work, especially given Louisville’s surplus of bigs.

For Kentucky

Kentucky is likely to have a lot of success in transition, so they should run as much as possible. Anytime Sydney Curry is on the court, his man should be setting screens for UK’s guards and the guards should attack the basket. Louisville’s bigs are not very active on defense, so Oscar Tshiebwe post-ups should be tremendously productive. Kentucky needs to attack the rim and not settle for midrange shots, as Louisville doesn’t have hardly any shotblocking.

On defense, Kentucky needs to focus most of their attention on El Ellis. He’s the catalyst as the only Cardinal who can create off the dribble. If Louisville plays Withers and Traynor together, Kentucky may need to go away from the Ware/Tshiebwe frontline in order to prevent open shots. Kentucky will likely get gifted a lot of turnovers, and should push the pace to get as many easy baskets as possible. Louisville has a tendency to stop moving the ball when they get down early, so if Kentucky is up by 10 points or so at the 10 minute mark then there’s less of a chance that Ellis will make plays for others.

This game is always my favorite day of the year. I love the rivalry, and I hope this year’s edition can exceed the tempered expectations of each fanbase. Unless Louisville spreads the floor and gets hot from 3, I struggle to see how they can stay competitive for very long in this game. My prediction: Kentucky 86, Louisville 56.