Kentucky tips off without their star
A new season begins with high expectations, but the first week will likely be without Oscar Tshiebwe. What effect will that have on the Wildcats?
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The beauty of Kentucky Wildcats college basketball under John Calipari is that every new season brings renewed optimism. There are always promising new talents, and lately there have been returnees who seem primed for more meaningful roles. Fans can always look ahead to significant matchups against other top contenders in hopes that their Cats will prove they belong at the forefront of college basketball. Hope truly springs eternal. That isn’t the case with every program, and I think it’s worth pausing to acknowledge the truly special place this program occupies in the national landscape.
With that being said, the fan base is hungry for a team to live up to lofty expectations. A pair of narrow Elite Eight losses in 2017 and 2019 represent the high points of the past 7 seasons, and Big Blue Nation is anxious to add greater accomplishments to the trophy case. The Southeastern Conference is once again loaded with not just tournament-caliber teams, but multiple Final Four contenders (Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama). Toss in non-conference games against Gonzaga, UCLA, Kansas, Michigan State, and Michigan and there are plenty of opportunities for Kentucky to make a statement and embolden the fans. The flip side is that each and every one of those opponents are capable of adding to the Wildcat’s loss column if things don’t go quite right.
Kentucky does have the advantage of returning Oscar Tshiebwe, the player of the year in men’s college basketball last season. As every UK fan knows, however, Oscar will likely miss at least the first two games of the season as he recovers from knee surgery. Obviously, that’s a major loss as it would be for any team. There are a few specific areas I’ll be watching to see how UK performs without Oscar:
Shot selection
Forcing turnovers
Fast break frequency
Let’s break down what I mean for each of these.
Can Kentucky live by the three?
Kentucky NEVER shoots a lot of threes under John Calipari. His first two seasons they ranked 198th and 180th in 3pt frequency, the high water mark of his tenure. As the rest of college basketball learned to love the three, Cal did not. UK has ranked 340th or lower in D-1 in the percent of their shots coming from deep during 4 of the past 5 seasons. Last season UK ranked 351st, taking just under 28% of their shots from three point range.
When Oscar Tshiebwe sat, the Cats unsurprisingly became a bit more likely to shoot from deep. They took a whole 32%(!) of their shots from three when Oscar sat…that would only have ranked about 290th in D-1, but it qualifies as progressive from Kentucky. The shift was mostly because Oscar’s backups were hesitant to shoot, so players like Kellan Grady, Davion Mintz, and TyTy Washington took on a bigger role.
I’d expect something similar to happen in these first few games for Kentucky, and the degree to which UK bombs away will give us an idea of how much the offense might shift over the full year. Last season, UK had only 3 games where they took more than 35% of their shots from deep, but there miiiight be a chance that UK opens things up now. Over their 4 game Bahamas tour, Kentucky took over 35% of their shots from three, then they took a whopping 42% from deep against Missouri Western State and 34% against Kentucky State. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Kentucky takes at least 40% of their shots from deep over their first 2 games this season.
Turning up the pressure without Oscar
Last season Oscar Tshiebwe had the highest steal rate on Kentucky’s team, nabbing one on over 3% of opponent possessions. It’s not entirely surprising then that Kentucky forced turnovers at a lower rate when he was out of the game, and indeed that happened; opponents committed a turnover almost 18% of the time when Oscar played and 16% when he didn’t. UK has never been particularly larcenous under Calipari (only in the top 100 in opponent turnover rate once), but 16% is pretty pathetic. That would have put the Wildcats around 300th in the country last year, well below their actual season-long rank of 229th.
UK seemed to dial up the pressure later in the season without Oscar, however. From February 5th vs Alabama onwards, UK played 5 games where Oscar sat for 10 possessions or more. Across those 5, UK forced turnovers on 21% of opponents possessions and topped 20% in 4 of the 5. The first 14 games they played at least 10 possessions without Oscar last season, they topped a 20% opponent turnover mark just 3 times.
Last season it was largely Keion Brooks and TyTy Washington who upped their thievery late in the season, and neither is a Wildcat this season. Kentucky has been forcing a lot of turnovers against overmatched exhibition foes, and their first opponent Howard was one of the most turnover-prone teams in D-1 last season. Look for UK to force 17 or more turnovers in the game, which will probably equal a turnover rate of 24% or more.
(Fast) break in case of emergency
If you were a coach who had maybe the best post player in the country on your team who was stellar at scoring at the rim and historically good at tracking down your team’s missed shots, you’d probably be perfectly happy with running halfcourt offense unless you had a really good chance in transition. During the minutes when that post player was on the bench, you’d probably suggest to your guards that they look to fast break a bit more, since the security blanket of offensive rebounding wasn’t available.
That’s basically what happened with Kentucky last season. When Oscar Tshiebwe was in the game, UK took a shot within the first 10 seconds of a possession only about 26% of the time. Per hoop-math.com, that would have ranked about 60th in the country. When Oscar sat, UK got out in transition to shoot over 31% of the time; that would have ranked 6th.
Kentucky wasn’t actually all that effective in transition last season. They ranked just outside the top 100 in effective FG% in transition, compared to 62nd in non-transition effective FG%. That’s a little deceiving since everyone shoots better in transition (because if a good shot isn’t available, you just don’t shoot and it becomes a non-transition possession) but last season’s guards weren’t overwhelmingly athletic or explosive. This season, Kentucky has a couple of potential powder kegs in transition in Cason Wallace and Antonio Reeves, not to mention a certified sniper in CJ Fredrick and smooth forwards Jacob Toppin and Chris Livingston.
Just watching a game, it’s hard to tell how often a team is getting out in transition, but in exhibition games this UK team definitely seems dangerous and eager to run. I’d like to see Kentucky taking about 1/3 of its shots in transition this week while Oscar recovers.
Anything less than 2-0 this week will be a disappointment, but the stats I mention above will be indicative of how Kentucky adapts without their All-American big man for a few games. Will they carry forward or amplify trends from last season, or will they adapt a different style altogether to fit a roster with several new pieces? I’ll be watching closely to see.