Kentucky might need some more players
Who's in the portal and may be useful?
Last season Kentucky had 11 scholarship players, and 2 of those players are currently projected to return: Adou Thiero and Ugonna Onyenso. They combined to play 301 minutes last season, so it’s a bit of a stretch to consider them “veterans”. Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves, and Chris Livingston could possibly return, and the 5 incoming freshmen are all extremely talented, but 5 on 5 practice session may be as rare as three point attempts around Lexington unless something changes.
It might be time for the coaching staff to open up Bart Torvik’s Transfer Portal Finder and get a list of names together to start calling. The Wildcats haven’t been linked with many names so far, but the search has mainly focused on Barstool podcast hosts and could be broadened.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that UK could use some versatile frontcourt pieces. I’d guess Reeves and Tshiebwe are the likeliest to return, and if they do I’d still say UK’s biggest need is a power forward or bigger wing who could bring some combination of defense, rebounding, or shooting. If Tshiebwe isn’t back, a bigger rebounding presence will be needed. If Reeves isn’t back, a wing who can bring some shooting will be essential. So, who’s available in the portal that UK could target?
Grant Nelson, 6’10” F/C (North Dakota State)
click his name for his College BB Reference page
Nelson is one of the most accomplished players currently in the transfer portal, having averaged 18ppg and 9rpg last season. He is also exploring NBA Draft options, although that seems line a longer shot. Nelson has grown his offensive role from bystander as a freshman (<18% of his team’s shots) to alpha scorer as a jnior (30% of his team’s shots) while also improving his efficiency; that’s a rare progression. Even rarer is the fact that he has done so despite shooting progressively worse from three each season (35% to 32% to 27%) and taking a lower porition of his shots from deep. Nelson has become an excellent finisher around the rim, hitting 70% while taking just under half of his shots from there. He also exploded as a rebounder last season, nearly doubling his defensive rebound rate from a poor 13.7% to an outstanding 26.3%. He’s even flashed some shotblocking, rejecting over 5% of opponent twos when he played.
The biggest red flag for me is the question of whether he can contribute when jumping up to a higher level of competition. Per BartTorvik.com, Nelson’s shooting fell off significantly last year when considering the 7 games he played against top-100 teams. His shotblocking also dropped sharply, while his turnovers spiked and assists fell. Most of his numbers seem to have been put up against weaker Summit League foes, and North Dakota State didn’t get a single win against a team ranked in the top 150 per KenPom. That’s not all on Nelson, but he contributions weren’t helping a lot.
I went to YouTube in search of video from some of Nelson’s games against better teams, and the Summit League championship against Oral Roberts is pretty representative of what I found. Nelson doesn’t jump out at you at all as unusually talented in this setting, which isn’t a great endorsement. He does have some skill and fluidity for a 6’10” player, and he spends most of his time on offense away from the basket looking for jumpers or drives. He doesn’t really seem to create good looks on offense, and his impact derives from finishing over smaller players. My takeaway was absolutely not that I was watching the #1 transfer in D-1, as he’s ranked currently by The Atletic and On3. My assessment is that he’s too much for lower level bigs to handle because of his fluidity, but he doesn’t bring much to the table besides pick-and-pop when playing against higher level players. He seemed to really struggle guarding pick and rolls, and I’d classify him as a definite backup for Kentucky.
I’ve seen some discussion online that UK needs a “Nate Sestina type” and envisions Nelson in that role, but I don’t agree. First, Sestina was a 35-38% 3 point shooter and Nelson is well below that. Second, Kentucky was a good bit worse in the 2019-20 season when Sestina played (mostly on defense). A player moving up from a low-major school who profiles as a possible shooter but who lacks athleticism and rebounding chops isn’t what Kentucky needs to have success, in my opinion.
For paid subscribers, I go through a few other names who I think are better fits for Kentucky…..
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