Kentucky has flipped the late-game script
The Basketball Bennies lineup has Kentucky pulling away from teams in the final 5 minutes. What's changed from earlier in the season?
Over the last 3 games, Kentucky’s success has almost entirely depended on one lineup, now referred to online as “the Basketball Benny lineup”. Consisting of Cason Wallace, Cj Fredrick, Antonio Reeves, Jacob Toppin, and Oscar Tshiebwe, this group has accounted for almost the entire margin of victory in each game:
+15 in 24 possessions vs Tennessee
+13 in 22 possessions vs Georgia (just 1 point shy!)
+14 in 27 possessions vs Texas A&M
Across the 3 games, this group is +42 in 72 possessions. Kentucky does not have a single other lineup that has posted better than +7 and only 3 lineups better than +2.
There are several things going well for them. They’ve posted a 59% effective FG% on 58% shooting on twos and 40% from three, turning the ball over on just 14% of possessions. Opponents have hit just 15% of threes against this group. Most notably, this lineup is collecting 86% of opponent missed shots and 44% of their own. There’s some 3 point shooting luck here, but that’s maybe a benefit of 15 total points. Where this group is really separating themselves from the opponent is on the offensive glass and drawing free throws. This lineup has generated 17 offensive rebound possessions and scored 20 points, while opponents have created 7 extra chances and scored just 4 points. This group has also drawn 37 free throws to just 19 for the opponent; those have led to 13 more points.
There’s probably a little bit of regression to the mean due, as opponents are going to continue to hit just 15% on threes. As I wrote about in the Tennessee game recap, there’s also been some luck involved in drawing FTs (although not in the last two games!). The most interesting thing about this lineup, however, is that they seem to have completely fixed Kentucky’s late game woes from earlier this season…and trust me, that is VERY interesting.
In each of the last 3 games, Kentucky has held a lead of 6 points or less when 5 minutes remained. In each game, the Wildcats have extended that lead. Earlier this season, Kentucky had 6 games against top-100 teams where the margin was 11 points or less with 5 minutes remaining; in each of those games the Wildcats lost that final 5 minute stanza. I’ll look at what’s changed since those early season struggles, and what might be due to the lineup change….and what’s not!
Premium subscribers get to find out what was going wrong in clutch spots before, and which players are contributing most to the turnaround….subscribe today!
MASSIVE problems in the clutch…until now
As I started above, Kentucky had 6 games vs top-100 foes this season where the game was within 11 points with 5 minutes left:
UK led by two vs Michigan State
UK trailed by 10 vs Gonzaga
UK led by 6 vs Michigan
UK led by 11 vs Yale
UK trailed by 4 vs UCLA
UK led by 4 vs LSU
5 minutes left is a bit of an arbitrary point, but a) it’s become a bit of an anecdotal standard for “clutch” time and b) my stats engine allows me to segment games in 1 minute increments. So, we’ll work with this.
In every one of these games, UK lost the remaining time; a total of -27 in 68 possessions. Not only that, but every single UK lineup had a negative scoring margin in these 6 games combined. Even the “Basketball Benny” lineup, which posted a -7 in 4 possessions vs Gonzaga. What was the problem?
Well, it was kind of “everything”. UK shot poorly, turned the ball over, didn’t rebound at a high level, didn’t force turnovers, and let opponents strafe them from three. However, the biggest issues were:
Kentucky was an absolute train wreck scoring in transition
The Wildcats were ridiculously bad when intentionally fouled
UK was very turnover prone
UK committed way too many fouls when they needed good halfcourt defense
In transition (defined as shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock), UK shot 2-10. Jacob Toppin actually had the only two made baskets (2-5), while the Wheeler/Wallace/Reeves trio went 0-4 and Livingston was 0-1. Oscar Tshiebwe and CJ Fredrick did not take a single shot in transition in these endgame situations.
UK also committed 14 turnovers in these late game spots, which is a disaster considering they only had 61 possessions The turnovers were committed by Wallace (5), Tshiebwe (3), Toppin (2) and 4 Wildcats with 1. A 23% turnover rate is horrendou,s but especially so when it’s your best players in the biggest moments.
On free throws drawn in the first 10 seconds of a possessions (usually intentional fouls), UK was a horrendous 3-14. ON FREE THROWS. Wallace was 2-6, Damion Collins 1-2, and Toppin/Livingston/Wheeler/Reeves combined to go 0-6. Tshiebwe and Fredrick did not take a single free throw, either.
While UK couldn’t score in what should be the easiest situations, they handed WAY too many free throws to opponents when they needed to defend. Opponents drew 23 free throws during these final 5 minutes later than 10 seconds into the shot clock; these are possessions where UK was actually trying to defend and not fouling intentionally. That’s one free throw for every 2 field goals attempted, a sky-high rate, and opponents hit 18 of these 23. 11 fouls led to these free throws, and the primary culprits were Oscar Tshiebwe (4) and Cason Wallace (3); 4 other Wildcats also committed one.
Effectively, every single Wildcat was contributing to these disaster areas. But now things have flipped quite a bit.
Pulling away in the clutch
Over the last 3 games, UK has extended their lead over the final 5 minutes. UK is +17 in 31 possessions over these final segments, with the Basketball Benny lineup at +12 in 22 possessions and a lineup with Livingston in for Reeves +5 in 6 possessions. Theyv’e done it by largely executing exactly the way you’d want down the stretch, and completely avoiding the earlier foul-ups.
First, UK only has 2 fast break possessions in these late segments but they’ve scored each time. UK is 13-17 on free throws drawn early in the clock (likely all intentional). They’re still fouling at a bit too high of a rate when they need to defend (8 opponent FTA vs 18 FGA in halfcourt offense), but opponents are shooting just 5-18 in these spots so that’s mitigated the fouling.
Interestingly, UK’s late game halfcourt offense hasn’t been a big spark here. The Wildcats have scored 17 points on 18 possessions (excluding fast breaks and offensive rebounds). Through their earlier struggles, UK did score 38 points in 39 of the same type of possessions. UK took most of their shots from midrange then and they still do. UK also isn’t getting a ton from offensive rebounds; they’ve only collected 4 in these possessions and scored 6 points.
Previously, UK had exactly 2 players who took >2 shots in these late game spots and had an effective FG% above 40%: Cason Wallace at 80% on 5 shots, and Sahvir Wheeler at 46% on 13 shots. Oscar Tshiebwe (33% eFG on 12 shots), Jacob Toppin (39% eFG% on 14 shots) and Antonio Reeves (12.5% on 8 shots) were all pretty disastrous. To be fair, Wallace did have several turnovers that could have been shots, but he was getting the least activity in the clutch but performing the best. This wasn’t an issue of limited minutes, either; he played nearly every one of these possessions and tooka miniscule 10% of UK’s shots. There’s not reason Jacob Toppin and Sahvir Wheeler should be the most frequent shooters in the most important minutes.
Over the last 3 games, the process and results have changed. Wallace has an eFG% of 50% on 6 shots, Tshiebwe 75% on 4 shots, and Reeves 100% on 3 shots. Fredrick is also 1-1, and Toppin is 0-1. The distribution of shots makes more sense, and results have improved. So, how much of this has to do with the lineup change?
Let’s first identify a few things that have nothing to do with the specific players now playing at the end of games:
The improved free throw shooting is largely by the same players who were missing, and now are hitting. Nobody is 3-14 bad, so that’s just normal regression to a more expected level
Improved shooting in transition is a similar thing, although UK also has very much avoided transition shots. That’s typical for Calipari teams to look to grind out possessions with a lead late.
There are a few things that very likely are due to the lineup change:
Cason Wallace’s larger role as creator/scorer has come as he’s taken over primary PG duties. To be fair, he was in the games earlier and could have had a larger role, although defenders would likely have played off of Wheeler more than they do off Fredrick or Reeves
Reeves’ larger role and better shooting also makes sense given Wheeler’s absence, as Reeves gets more of an on-ball role and benefits from better spacing when taking midrange shots.Earlier in the season Reeves’ suffered quite a bit from defenders helping off non-shooters like Wheeler, Toppin, and Ware when he tried to create, and now there is better spacing.
A better distribution of late-game shots is something that shouldn’t have needed a lineup change, but it evidently did. It’s been clear to any observer that Sahvir Wheeler trying to create something in the dying embers of the shot clock is a bad idea; that he had a passable eFG% in those spots is something of a miracle, frankly. Running late game offense through Jacob Toppin and Oscar Tshiebwe jumpers was a terrible idea, as was the complete lack of involvement for CJ Fredrick.
Then there’s the idea that maybe Cason Wallace just needed to get some reps in late game crunch time to improve. He struggled immensely, especially in the Michigan State game, and maybe he’s now figured out how to control the turnovers and fouling.
UK’s new lineup has gotten quite a bit of attention, and they’ve put up fantastic results. There’ll likely be a few bumpy games, as lineup data in college basketball is incredibly volatile and there’s been some 3 point luck involved. UK still hasn’t fixed their issues defending insde the arc, as this lineup is allowing 51% shooting on twos, and there’s still some issues with fouling late in tight games, but those won’t be significant issues as long as UK is dominating rebounding on both ends and executing in late game situations like this. Now, if someone could just convince John Calipari that midrange jumpers are bad shots….