Kentucky at the quarter pole
With 8 games done, Kentucky has established some strengths and weaknesses. Key newcomers are playing a big part in both.
8 games played, 6 wins, and very little clearly established about this Kentucky team. They probably are going to be in the thick of the SEC title race and, therefore, one of the top 5-10 teams in the country….but it’s not entirely clear that they are there right now. KenPom and EvanMiya rates them 6th in the nation, while Bart Torvik and Haslametrics put them 19th. Those are pretty big discrepancies for this early in this season, but my suspicion is it reflects the wide gap between expectations for this team and the reality of their resume so far.
The Wildcats have 5 clear blowout wins over lesser teams, 1 narrow win over a likely bubble team, 1 narrow loss against a bubble team, and 1 clear loss against a very good team. That resume suggests “bubble team, maybe a little better”. It feels like that resume is selling the Wildcats a little bit short, but in the words of Bill Parcells, “you are what your record says you are.” Kentucky needs to achieve a little bit more, and leave a little bit less to the imagination.
That doesn’t mean that any optimism is purely hypothetical, however. Kentucky’s defense (particularly against two-point attempts, and in transition) has been getting terrific results. Two newcomers have quite a bit to do with that. Kentucky’s offense is more of a work in progress, but some of the issues should clear up…again, one newcomer will have a lot to say about this. Let’s take a look and what’s working and what needs improvement, with an eye towards three players very much finding their way in a Wildcat uniform.
Defense is leading the way, thanks to 2 freshmen
Regardless of where Kentucky is rated by analytics sites, the consensus is clearly that UK’s defense has clearly outperformed the offense so far. KenPom, for example, has the Cats ranked 5th in defense and 19th in offense. Interestingly enough, there isn’t much the Wildcats are doing at a clearly elite level on defense…but there isn’t much they’re doing poorly, either.
Per KenPom, UK only ranks in the top 50 in 3 defensive stats, and all 3 are interrelated: opponent effective FG% (18th), opponent 2 point FG% (11th) and block rate (11th). The Wildcats would be considered “pretty good” at defensive rebounding, opponent free throw rate, opponent 3point FG%, and steal rate, and “average” at turnover rate and opponent 3pt frequency. So, Kentucky’s defense is built on limiting opponent shooting, which is built on limiting 2 point shooting in particular, and a significant part of that is shot blocking.
As anyone who’s watched Kentucky this season probably knows, the biggest factor in their shotblocking is freshman center Ugonna Onyenso. Onyenso has been phenomenal, blocking 15 shots in only 79 minutes played. He’s blocking 20% of opponent shots when he’s on the court! Sometimes blocked shots can be a misleading indicator of rim protection as players miss on far more blocks than they get, leaving an open shot at the basket. That’s not the case here. UK opponents are hitting only 43% of their shots at the rim when Onyenso plays, and 54% when he sits. Onyenso also has exceptional control, blocking shots while avoiding fouls; he’s committing 3.5 fouls per 40 minutes, a lower rate than Oscar Tshiebwe (who blocks shots less than 1/3 as often). His shotblocking technique is excellent in that he doesn’t just smack te ball out of bounds. Opponents have only come up with 1 offensive rebound off of his 15 blocks this season, meaning that his blocks are changing possession the vast majority of the time.
Onyenso has been a big factor in Kentucky being much more effective at the rim than their opponents. Per Synergy, Kentucky opponents are hitting just 40.5% on layups this season while the Wildcats themselves are over 10 point better at 51.7%. Opponents are drawing free throws on 18% of their layup attempts, while Kentucky is doing so on 28% of their own. The Wildcats may have some room to improve there ass well, as they hit over 59% of their layups last season.
It’s not just shotblocking at the rim where UK is effective on defense. Per hoop-math.com, Kentucky is allowing the 13th lowest Feffective G% in transition (41.3%). The biggets factor driving this is that Wildcat opponents have had a tremendously difficult time trying to score after they get a steal. UK allows an effective FG% of just 29% on transition attempts following a steal, 6th best in the country. I believe much of the credit here is due to freshman Cason Wallace, as he’s been on the court when Kentucky is best at contesting these shots. His ability to get back and contest shots that most teams would give up without a second thought has helped Kentucky frustrate opponents this season. There just aren’t many outlets for teams to get easy points against Kentucky this season, which is helping stabilize the team as the offense finds its footing.
More offensive potential than has been shown
As I mentioned earlier, Kentucky is hitting just over 51% on layups this season after hitting 59% last season. Oscar Tshiebwe seems to be still recovering from offseason knee surgery, and John Calipari referenced this earlier this week when saying Oscar was at “85%”. Last season Oscar hit over 77% at the rim in halfcourt offense, this season he’s about 68%. As his explosiveness comes back, that should tick up north of 70% and help the team average. But there’s one other Wildcat who isn’t recovering form injury, but is struggling in halfcourt offense. Surprisingly, it’s the player who’s been an offensive sparkplug: Antonio Reeves.
Reeves has been spectacular shooting the ball this season, but his damage has largely been done in transition. In these fast break situations he’s taking 79% of his shots from three, and has hit 15 of 26 for a staggering 58% clip. In halfcourt offense he’s been more pedestrian, however. In halfcourt situations, Reeves is hitting:
7 of 12 shots at the rim (58%)
3 of 16 midrange shots (19%)
5 of 17 threes (29%)
Reeves is a better halfcourt scorer than he’s shown so far. Last season he had an effective Fg% of 51.5% at Illinois State in halfcourt offense; He’s at 39% with Kentucky. Even just counting his games against top-100 defenses last season, he posted a 46% eFg% in halfcourt offense.
The biggest area where he’s underperformed this season is midrange jumpers. Reeves actually was very effective on these jumpers last season, hitting 53% (37 of 70). There’s definitely some bad luck involved, as evidenced by this shot against Michigan:
On the shot above, Reeves sets up his man to be screened by Oscar Tshiebwe and curls open for a jumper. However, his right foot clearly slips when planting and his shot is thrown off. You’d like to see him curl out a foot or two more so this is a three pointer, but Reeves was open and was just undone by a spot of condensation or something on the floor.
Some of the issue with Reeves’ midrange shooting has more to do with Kentucky’s offensive structure and the lack of spacing in the halfcourt. For example, see this shot from the Michigan game:
Reeves gets by his man, but at the time he’s driving there are 3 other Wildcats and their defenders in the paint. Additionally, Sahvir Wheeler’s man leaves him to help defend on Reeves’ drive. In a more optimial offense Reeves would have been driving into a less congested lane, but this is what happens for Kentucky much of the time and he had to settle for a jumper. His defender did a decent job contesting, although this isn’t a terrible look all things considered.
Sometimes Reeves takes midrange jumpers when there are better options in the offense available. He’s not a great passer, and in this clip he misses an opportunity to hit Jacob Toppin on a lob:
Reeves’ path to the lane is obstructed by Oscar Tshiebwe here, and Reeves’ defender is able to contest this shot. Under the basket, Jacob Toppin made a nice little cut and was probably open for a lob. This action looked like kind of a mess, but there were some better options if a higher level passing read had been made. This shot probably didn’t need to be taken.
One adjustment Kentucky could make to capitalize on Reeves’ skills would be to use him as a pick-and-roll ballhandler in halfcourt offense, especially with high screens. At Illinois State, Reeves was 19 for 41 on 3 pointers when he was the ballhandler in pick and roll. Kentucky tends to run screens a little lower, with the ballhandler driving instead of looking to pull up for three. This season UK has exactly 1 three point attempt taken by a ballhandler in pick-and-roll, per Synergy. Only 2 UK guards under Calipari have taken more than even 15 threes out of pick and roll in a season: Tyler Ulis went 16-33 as a sophomore, and Brandon Knight went 12-32 as a freshman. It’s not a weapon Calipari offenses tend to feature, but it’s something worth drawing up to get more out of Antonio Reeves.
Reeves is probably due for some positive regression in midrange shooting, based on his history and the fact that he’s taking OK shots. That’s going to help UK’s offense tick up a bit. Reeves has also been more effective at the rim lately, hitting 6 of 7 attempts there in halfcourt offense in the last 4 games after starting 1 for 5. Between Reeves getting to his usual marks and Tshiebwe regaining his explosiveness, Kentucky should get some improved offense over the next month or so.
A key for the Wildcats over this next stretch of the season will be getting a bit more out of their strengths while mitigating some weaknesses. Tweaking the rotation to feature more time for Onyenso, continued defensive effort and smarts from Cason Wallace, better halfcourt scoring from Antonio Reeves and improved explosiveness from Oscar Tshiebwe will help add that extra something to help Kentucky realize their potential. The Wildcats aren’t a Final Four-caliber team just yet, but they’re not far off if the coaching staff can push the right buttons.