A couple days ago this was a Quad 1 game for both Kentucky and Auburn, but then Auburn beat Ole Miss by only 4, it became a Quad 2 game for Kentucky, and Ole Miss fired their coach. Before this game pour a little bit out for Kermit Davis who was a very good coach in the 3rd worst job in a league with 13 good-to-great coaches plus Mike White.
Auburn hasn’t beaten a Quad 1 team since January 7th, while Kentucky has racked up more Quad 1 wins than games over the past 9 days. That’s not to say Auburn hasn’t been playing well, however. Per Bart Torvik’s team page for Auburn, the Tigers have racked up a game score of 90+ 9 times in SEC play this season, including 5 in a row from Feb 1 to Valentine’s Day. They lost 3 of those games by a combined 16 points to Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Alabama, so they’re not exactly embarassing themselves. The Tigers are in pretty serious need of a quality win at this point however, and that road leads them to Rupp Arena.
Auburn is 1 of 6 SEC teams ranked in the top 25 in defensive efficiency per KenPom, but 5 of those 6 teams (Alabama excepted) rank 50th or worse in offensive efficiency. Kentucky’s last 3 games were wins over 3 of the teams that meet that criteria, and Saturday will be the 4th. The Wildcats have done quite well offensively in these games, largely thanks to offensive rebounding and free throws, but the Kentucky defense has a nasty habit of keeping opponents in games.
Auburn has an aggressive and athletic defense that will test Kentucky, but their weaknesses are the specific things the Wildcats have been feasting on. On the flip side, Auburn looks to pound the ball inside WAY more than you might expect given the three-happy style of past Auburn squads…and that is something that UK’s struggled to defend. I’ll explain more about the key factors in this game, for premium subscribers!
If any team in America was going to bribe referees to stop calling fouls, Auburn might benefit the most. Their defense has been tremendous this season, with the pesky exception of their generosity in doling out the most efficient source of points: free throws.
Auburn ranks 23rd nationally in 2pt FG% allowed, even though they rank 330th in frequency of opponent shots at the rim (higher numbers mean more shots at the rim). That’s because they rank 26th in FG% allowed at the rim thanks to the 2nd highest rate of blocked shots there. You can get there, but good luck getting the ball in the basket.
Auburn is also 4th in opponent 3pt FG%, although they’ve likely benefitted from some luck here. They don’t do an especially good job of contesting catch and shoot opportunities as they allow about a 50/50 split between guarded and unguarded. Synergy estimates that opponents should be hitting about 5% better (32% vs 27%), which is good but not great. It does appear that Auburn has a pretty solid game plan on who to leave open, but Bruce Pearl defenses don’t have a strong track record of shutting down shooters.
Auburn also does a tremendous job of coming up with steals. They rank 38th in defensive steal percentage, even thought they rank just 117th in overall turnover percentage. Those steals are needed, because their offense otherwise is not super great.
As I mentioned before, their weaknesses on defense are in two areas: rebounding and fouling. It’s not uncommon to see strong shotblocking teams be poor at defensive rebounding, because they are caught out of position when not blocking the shot. This has been a hallmark of Bruce Pearl teams at Auburn, in fact. It nearly cost the Tigers in their last game against Ole Miss, when Auburn blocked 10 shots but also allowed 17 offensive rebounds. Auburn allows the 6th most putback shots in the nation (6.3 per game) although the Tigers are again solid at contesting them (58% FG% allowed at the rim on putbacks). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Oscar Tshiebwe have some trouble scoring quickly after offensive rebounds, but the overall volume of extra shots UK gets should be significant.
Auburn’s weakest point on defense has been giving up a ton of free throws, especially in SEC play. Something interesting is that Auburn isn’t fouling more often in SEC play, but those fouls are leading to free throws at a higher rate. I did some cursory analysis and it appears the largest factor is that Auburn has been fouling around the basket in transition much more often, as well as when opponents try to score on cuts in halfcourt offense. Jacob Toppin may face more physical play than usual, as he is the WIldcats who scores most often on cuts. Auburn actually doesn’t foul a lot on putbacks normally, but that will be challenged as UK draws free throws at the 13th highest rate in the nation on putbacks. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game on Saturday gets described as “chippy” once or twice, probably due to some action by Dylan Cardwell (Auburn’s foul-prone backup center).
Here’s a chart of how effective Auburn’s key rotation is at scoring from halfcourt areas:
On offense, Auburn isn’t much more exciting than the rest of the SEC’s defense-first teams. There are 3 main weapons, listed in no particular order:
Wendell Green drawing fouls: Green is not an efficient halfcourt scorer, as the chart above indicates. He can hit threes off the dribble, but his bread and butter is drawing fouls/free throws, particularly when running isolation. He has the 3rd highest rate in the country at drawing free throws off of that set, and he’ll likely be trying to do just that against Cason Wallace. Wallace has defended only 7 iso sets all season per Synergy, so it remains to be seen how that goes; if he gets in foul trouble, UK is hurting.
Johni Broome activity points: Broome isn’t going to score in very structured ways, like post-ups or spot up jumpers. He does the vast majority of his damage in transition (where he’s in the 98th percentile as a scorer) and from offensive rebounds. This will be a different test for Oscar Tshiebwe, who’ll need to get back quickly on defense and focus on boxing out Broome more than worrying about his moves.
Jaylin Williams popping up: Williams doesn’t take a ton of shots typically; it’s mostly the Green and Broome show. When he does, though, he’s effective. He’s hit 36% of his spot up threes (18 of 50), and his shooting a blistering 71% on off-ball cuts. He’ll get a couple baskets a game on quick cuts to the basket, and will absolutely burn Kentucky if Jacob Toppin loses focus.
Auburn does virtually no catch and shoot stuff, although the players who do (Williams, Allen Flanigan, KD Johnson) will hit 35% or better there. Flanigan and Johnson’s 3 point percentages are negatively affected by poor shooting in transition as well as Johnson’s terrible shooting from deep off the dribble, but they will hit a decent percentage on their rare catch and shoot stuff.
If Auburn could keep their fouling under control they’d have a good chance to beat Kentucky, but I don’t see that happening. The Tigers can score inside the arc, but they are going to give Kentucky way too many chances via offensive rebounds and free throws. The best hope for Auburn is Green draws a couple fouls on Wallace and the UK offense gums up, but it’s tough to sustain that and it will be a terrible viewing experience, so pray for us all that doesn’t happen.
Predictions:
Jacob Toppin and Chris Livingston combine for 12+ free throw attempts
A UK player gets fouled hard on a fast break
KD Johnson and Wendell Green each hit at least 1 wild ridiculous three, prompting the entire UK fan base to bemoan shooters getting hot vs the Cats
Kentucky 74, Auburn 68