Interesting stats about UofL's season
A few curiosities about a very difficult season
There’s just not a lot of interesting ways to look at a piece of garbage. There aren’t subtle things about it that capture the imagination, in a way that a car, or a banana, or a shirt might have. That’s the challenge with Louisville’s basketball season.
This season isn’t really going to be redeemed through any results from the remaining games, so any effort by Kenny Payne to strategically improve the team isn’t likely to be part of the Cardinals’ return to prominence. So, instead of analyzing results and what worked/what didn’t, I thought I’d offer a bit of a palate cleanser by finding some stats and trends that interested me. Maybe some are meaningful, maybe some are just flukes, but they all caught my attention.
#1: The on/off king
So far this season, the Cardinal who has the largest on/off court scoring margin difference is one Sydney Curry. With Curry in the game this season, Louisville is -5.5 points per 100 possessions worse than an average team; with him out, this drops to -18.7 (excluding garbage time minutes).
With Curry in the game, UofL hits 63% of their shots at the rim; without him this drops to 56%. Opponents hit 64% of their shots at the rim with him in vs 68% when he sits.
Curry’s 622 possessions played are most often shared with El Ellis (589) and Mike James (505), while the 592 possessions without him tend to feature El Ellis (533), Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (472) and JJ Traynor (453).
#2: Momentum before halftime
If we divide the game into a series of 4 minute segments between TV timeouts, the 4 minutes before halftime are the most successful portion for the Cards this season. Over 136 possessions Louisville has outscored opponents by +15 points in the 4 minutes leading into halftime, their only 4 minute segment with a positive margin. The teams’ turnover rate drops from 24% for the full season to 18% when just looking at this segments, and they have hit 44% from three during these 4 minutes. They also are rebounding 83% of opponent misses in this stretch.
The worst segments for the Cards is the 4 minutes immediately preceding this, from the 8 minute mark to the 4 minute mark of the first half. In 126 possessions over this time Louisville has lost by -77 points. That’s more than double the margin of any other 4 minute segment. The Cards have a 26% turnover rate in this segments and a 34% effective FG%, including hitting just 20% from three.
#3: Beating up on backups
Louisville has been outscored by -244 points on this season, with -258 coming against lineups where opponents had 2 or more starters. Against opposing bench lineups with 1 or zero starters, however, Louisville is +14 in 83 possessions. Even excluding garbage time, Louisville is +3 against these groups.
If you REALLY wanted to stretch the interpretation of this, you could say that Louisville is probably 3 or so players away from being able to compete at their usual level. So, that gives an idea of what work needs to be done in the transfer portal…3 starter-quality ACC players.
#4 El Ellis’ Efficiency
For the season El Ellis has not been the picture of efficient offense. He’s taken almost 31% of Louisville’s shots when in the game and posted an effective Fg% below 46%. He has 89 assists and 84 turnovers on the season. Dating back to the Western Kentucky win, however, he’s improved his efficiency due to his strong play as part of a 7-man rotation.
When Ellis plays with any 4 of James, Lands, Traynor, Withers, Curry, or Huntley-Hatfield, he has put up:
27% of Cards’ shots
55% eFG%, including 54% from 2 and 38% from 3
2:1 assist to turnover ratio
Louisville’s defense in this stretch has still struggled, and Cards other than Ellis have continued to be turnover prone, but Ellis himself has found a groove as a legitmate ACC guard.
#5 Mike James LOVES the ACC
Mike James has saved his best performance for conference games. In ACC play, James is averaging:
20.5% of Louisville’s shots when in the game
16.8 points per 40 minutes on a 58% eFG% (51% on twos, 44% on threes)
In all non-conference games, James averaged:
13.9% of Louisville’s shots when in the game
8.7 points per 40 minutes on a 45% eFG% (48% on twos, 27% on threes)
Weirdly enough, James was awesome vs Miami and Florida State in the early ACC games, and lousy in the 4 non-conference games between those and the full conference season. The guy just loves playing against the ACC! If he goes off for 50 in a first round ACC Tournament game, you heard it here first.
It’s been a tough season, but college basketball is always good for some statistical quirks. Who knows, maybe one of the above will end up being meaningful in the coming weeks? Anyway, Go Cards, beat Boston College.