How much better will Louisville get next season?
The talent is upgraded, but do the pieces fit?
First, I want to express my sympathy to everyone in the Louisville community who may still be coming to terms with the recent gun violence in the city. It’s been tough to focus on writing about basketball, but I finally was able to get around to it. This type of senseless violence is tough to process when it strikes somewhere that’s meaningful in your life, and I hope everyone is taking the time they need to heal.
With that being said, I’ve been thinking about this article topic for a few weeks now as transfer names get rumored to Louisville. Analyzing the fit of any one player for Louisville next year doesn’t make a lot of sense without the broader context of the roster around them. I’ve held off until now to offer my thoughts on some of the key newcomers for the Cards, but it’s beginning to seem like most of the impactful moves have occurred for Louisville. The Cards might land Mackenzie Mgbako, Churchill Abass, RJ Luis, or some other pieces, but I don’t think those additions will dramatically change my thoughts on the newcomers they’ve already landed.
There’s no question in my mind that Louisville has added talented players who will be able to produce at the ACC level. However, I’m very concerned about the overall fit of the roster. Specifically, there is a noticeable lacking of a lead ballhandler and playmaker who can connect the pieces on offense and make things easier for teammates. Last season El Ellis was pressed into duty there when he was more of a combo guard; the results weren’t great. I don’t see how the pieces Louisville has landed are going to make the offense much improved.
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What Louisville lost
Louisville lost a lot of players off of last year’s team, which isn’t always the worst thing when you went 4-28. The biggest concern I have is that Louisville lost their 3 most active offensive players. El Ellis took 30% of Louisville’s shots when he was in the game, Jae’lyn Withers took 21%, and Kamari Lands was just under 20%. None of the returnees cracked 18% unless you count Hercy Miller (18.4%) and Emmanuel Okorafor (21.4%)…and I don’t think Louisville is looking at those two as offensive sparkplugs.
Because there are 5 players on the court at any time, the average would be for each player to take 20% of the shots. Players take more when they can create for themselves more easily than teammates can, or when they develop the confidence to fire away. Mike James, JJ Traynor, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield didn’t fill that role last season for an awful Louisville team; it’s doubtful they’d take on a bigger role for a better team.
In Ellis Louisville also lost their only source of playmaking for others last season. He assisted on 31% of his teammates’ made baskets; Fabio Basili and Hercy Miller were at 15% and 12%, and nobody else was above 8%. I’d consider 20-25% to be a minimum “good” amount for a lead guard, and 10-15% for secondary playmakers. Ellis was also the only player on Louisville who had more assists than turnovers last season.
What Louisville returns
The returnees do have some strengths. Traynor and James had 2 of the 3 best effective FG% on the team last season, and were legitimately efficient scorers from the wing. In Traynor, James, and Huntley-Hatfield Louisville also returns 3 of their 4 best finishers at the rim (by FG% there), so the returnees can function as useful scorers when set up by a playmaker.
It’s a complete mystery how any UofL returnees will play in a completely new context, however. There were only 60 non-garbage time possessions all season long where the Cardinals played without Ellis or Withers on the court; that drops to zero when you exclude other players who transferred. This is a hard reset and near-complete roster turnover.
What newcomers bring
So far Louisville has 6 new players coming in: Skyy Clark, Trentyn Flowers, Dennis Evans, Curtis Williams, Kaleb Glenn, and Koron Davis. That puts the overall roster at:
Guards: Clark and Miller
Wings: James, Flowers, Williams, Davis
Forwards: Traynor, Glenn
Bigs: Huntley-Hatfield, Evans, Okorafor
As far as newcomers go, I’m going to focus most on the first 3 I listed (Clark, Flowers, Evans) as I’d expect them to have by far the largest impact. I do have some quick thoughts on the others:
Curtis Williams reminds me a lot of Mike James in his perimeter shooting, finishing around the basket, and defensive effort, but may struggle for playing time behind James and Flowers
Kaleb Glenn will probably end up as more of an interior player but could be an effective rebounder in college at some point
Koron Davis played at a pretty low JUCO level and is a longshot to contribute unless he’s the biggest sleeper in recruiting history
So, what is Louisville bringing in with the others? To put together my analysis, I was aided by some great work by @UofL_Updates on Twitter, who posted a ton of video clips that offer an insightful and honest overview of strengths and weaknesses. For each player, I’ll link to the Twitter thread so you can check out some of his great work as well.
Skyy Clark 6’3” CG (formerly Illinois)
Clark was the #32 recruit in the class of 2022 RSCI, which sounds really impressive until you look at the RSCI lists and realize that a lot of players outside the top 10 just don’t do much. He’s certainly got time to become more Johnny Juzang than Earl Timberlake, but outside the top 10 those rankings lose a lot of predictive value.
For the moment, Clark is the guy Louisville needs to be a playmaker. I don’t know how the offense is going to evolve from last year’s “Do something, El Ellis”, but it would be highly improbably for the offense to not heavily depend on somebody, anybody who could create off the dribble. I just don’t know that Clark fits that profile. He had an assist rate of 15% at Illinois, firmly in “solid secondary guard” territory, and exactly as many assists as turnovers. He wasn’t a score-first guard, though, as he only took about 15% of the shots when he was on the court. Illinois’ turnover rate as a team was higher when Clark was in, but their three point shooting was also better (shout out to hoop-explorer.com for on/off data). Clark didn’t play a lot of minutes, registering 30+ in only 3 of 13 games he played.
Watching video of the games he did play in, I’m underwhelmed by him a bit. Yes, he dribbled the ball past the midcourt line for Illinois, but he didn’t really play point guard. Their offense worked the ball around, without a singular on-ball creator; very rarely did Clark do something to create an advantage for a teammate. Clark does seem to have a nice three-point shot, and competed well on defense, but I haven’t yet seen any evidence that he’s capable of the role Ellis played.
Trentyn Flowers, 6’9”, Wing
Let me get this out of the way: it’s insane to call Flowers a guard in any sense that would imply that he could do any ballhandling or playmaking. Flowers is an absolutely elite shooter who uses his height to drop in gorgeous rainbow jumpers over smaller players. He may end up being one of the rare players who can convert from midrange at a high enough rate for that to be efficient. He’ll probably also be able to finish at the rim pretty well given his length, although his elite skill is the shooting. He just doesn’t have a tight enough handle or burst for me to see him doing a ton of damage off the dribble in college as a freshman. He’ll likely have smaller, quicker players guarding him and he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to get by guards on the high school level; he’s probably not getting better at that right away in the ACC. If Louisville had a dynamite guard who could beat their man and draw help (like, say, El Ellis), Flowers would be an ideal second banana to hit jumpers and attack closeouts. If he’s being asked to beat his man and make a play, I think it could be a little ugly early on.
If Flowers can show some rebounding skill, maybe Louisville can get away with playing him at the four and creating mismatches with his shooting…but they just had that guy in Jae’lyn Withers. If Flowers was an elite athlete with some real ballhandling chops, I’d believe he could make a massive difference next season. If he’s more of a complementary shooter, I don’t know that Louisville has the pieces to get the best out of him.
Dennis Evans, 7’1”, C
Evans is the newcomer who most thoroughly addresses a weakness from last season, with that being interior defense. Last season Louisville couldn’t put up much of a fight at the rim, but Evans is an absolutely elite shotblocker who will probably be among the top 20 in the country in block rate next season. Depending on his minutes, he may lead the ACC in blocked shots. His instincts are outstanding, and he doesn’t need perfect technique or footwork to get a rejection.
He’s very skinny, so he’ll probably get pushed around a bit in the post and when rebounding; early in the season I’d expect most of his blocks to come as a help defender. Believe me, he’s going to have some spectacular ones. I’m not sure how much he’s ready to help on offense, as his lower body looks very frail and really compromises his ability to stay balanced and get good shots off. In some of his high school slips he did have decent passing instincts, but I’d expect his offensive repertoire to be dunks and layups next season.
What else does Louisville need?
I feel like I’m in a time loop, but they need guards. Lead ballhandlers and playmakers who can bend the defense and create advantages for other players to attack. Players who are more likely to have something good happen when they attempt a pass.
At this point I don’t know where Louisville would get guards of high enough quality to make a difference next season, honestly. RJ Luis seems like a talented wing, but he’s not an alpha playmaker in my opinion. A wing rotation of Flowers, James, and Luis would be a very solid scoring group, but if Clark is the only guard with them then it feels like UofL would be hoping for someone to make a play.
There’s not much in the transfer portal right now. Per BartTorvik.com, there are 22 players who played 60% of their team’s minutes last season and have an assist rate above 20%. Maybe Noah Thomasson or Taran Armstrong could be solid for UofL, but those players are way down the road in their transfer journey and taking visits elsewhere.
Louisville could land Mackenzie Mgbako, a top 10 recruit who decommitted from Duke. He’s a good shooter and rebounder as a big, but he’s not a lead playmaker for an ACC team. The Cards need a portal miracle where an established PG hits the market and the Cards pounce.
I expect Louisville’s defense to be much improved from last season, but there’s a lot of room between 321st and “ACC good”. Evans is a home run to address the interior defense, and the Cards probably have enough pieces to be solid elsewhere on that end. The offense is my biggest concern, and I fear that the turnover issues won’t get a whole lot better. Without an advantage creator on the ball or a scheme in which the roster is experienced, I don’t see a ton of great shots being created. Maybe I’m way off, but it doesn’t feel like the talent upgrade is enough to get the results that are needed next season.