With Big Blue Nation staging a Tampa Takeover, it’s once again time for Kentucky to try to add to their record number of SEC Tournament titles. It’s an unusually strong year for the conference, with a Wildcat team considered a national title contender only managing to land a 3 seed. Kentucky has more than pride at stake, with a possible #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in sight.
The Cats are about as healthy as they’ve been in a while, which should be bad news for opponents. However, UK went just 1-3 against the other top 4 seeds this season (Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas). Can the Wildcats find their form and establish some momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament? In this edition of Hoops Insight I evaluate how Kentucky measures up against the othr top contenders in the SEC.
Getting the defense back on track
The first important thing to understand is that Kentucky looked much better on defense in the season finale against Florida than they had leading into the game. Before the game I wrote about the troubling defensive trends, and UK addressed most of my concerns. UK had been allowing over 113 points per 100 possessions over their prior 5 games; they allowed under 95 to Florida. Most notably, UK put the clamps on Florida’s transition game, with the Gators posting an effective FG% of just 39% there. UK had been vulnerable to giving up transition after made baskets (in part due to Oscar Tshiebwe strugglingto get back) but had no such trouble against Florida.
Not everything was fixed, however. UK has struggled to force turnovers lately, with a corresponding lack of fouling pointing to passive defense as a culprit. Florida also continued an opponent streak of hot shooting from midrange. However, I believe both of these will get sorted out in due time. The healthy return of Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington gives UK the depth to get more aggressive on defense, and hot opponent shooting from midrange tends to wear off over time.
Kentucky’s defense has been among the best in the nation prior to their recent slump, and there’s no reason to think the Cats can’t sustain that type of performance over a postseason run.
Some possible soft spots on offense
Oddly enough I have more concerns about UK’s ability to match up on offense. UK has been just fine lately no offense as a team, ranking 3rd nationally in offense over the last 3 weeks. I do have some concerns about how UK opponents might game plan against the Cats, however.
For the last couple months, one of UK’s strengths has been the 3 headed perimeter shooting of Grady, Mintz, and Washington. Through Feb 12th, that trio was hitting over 40% of their threes collectively. Lately, Kellan Grady has been the only one of them keeping up his end of the bargain. Over the last 7 games Grady is hitting 39%, but Tyty and Mintz are 14-48 (29%) over that stretch. UK’s best outside shooter lately has actually been Sahvir Wheeler, at 6-12 (50%) over the last 7 games. For the season, Wheeler’s 32.6% barely trails Washington’s 33.7% mark from deep.
What worries me is that opponents can largely take away Kentucky’s effective perimeter attack by focusing on Grady, and may gamble off of Mintz or Washington to help on Oscar Tshiebwe. I am not sure how real Wheeler’s shooting is, but I doubt opponents will stick to him much either. If opponents can sag off of Kentucky’s shooters without paying a price, UK is going to run into trouble. Simply put, the Wildcats need their shooters back on track for offensive flexibility.
Matching up against the other SEC elite
Here are my thoughts on UK matchip up with the other top 4 seeds in the SEC Tournament:
Tennessee
Neither game against the Vols was fully representative of this matchup, but I am pretty confident UK can outscore Tennessee. In the first matchup, hot UK shooting negated Tennessee’s marksmanship from deep. The Wildcats were a perfect 12-12 at the rim and over 60% from deep. But in the second matchup, UK was just 11-30 at the rim (37%) and couldn’t keep pace with another hot shooting night from three for Tennessee.
Tennessee relies on pressure from their guards to force turnovers, and is able to contest shots at the rim despite lacking real shotblocking. I just don’t believe either of these is an effective way to attack Kentucky. UK just doesn’t have games where they are sloppy with the ball, and Oscar Tshiebwe has proven he can finish inside on almost anyone. He was just 3-12 in the 2nd game at the rim, an absolutely uncharacteristic performance. UK lost by 12 in a game where they were 11-30 at the rim; if they were a more typical 20-30, UK likely wins the game despite Tennessee hitting 47% from deep and UK turning it over on a high (for them) 20% of possessions. I don’t think UK will lose all capability to finish again, and I don’t think Tennessee can do much more in terms of forcing turnovers or htiting outside shots.
Auburn
Auburn is an interesting team as they’ve had massive troubles on the road this season but dominated at home. When UK played Auburn, I marvelled at the Tigers ability to guard the rim with Walker Kessler but theorized that their weak point was their guards on offense. That has proven true lately. The Tigers have defended well but struggled on offense numerous times recently. Wendell Green has had a solid season, but in losses lately he’s been a massive weak spot. He’s been taking a huge share of shots but posting an effective FG% of just 35%, and been incredibly inaccurate away from the rim. Jabari Smith is deadly from three, but his midrange shooting has been below 40% over the past few weeks and he gets to the rim incredibly infrequently. Defenders who can pressure him to take away the shot aren’t paying as much of a price as earlier in the year. Auburn has also had massive turnover issues, especially from their wings; all of their rotation wings have more turnovers than assists over the past 6 games.
I don’t know that Auburn can score with Kentucky, especially if Kentucky can convert some transition opportunities. UK has gotten pretty good at forcing turnovers when dribblers try to get into the lane, as the guards can stay in front of the ball and a help defender can attack. Auburn is ripe for this attack. Auburn is going to need one of their better defensive performances to knock off the Cats, and the Tigers seem vulnerable to an NCAA Tournament upset to me.
Arkansas
I believe the Razorbacks are UK’s toughest matchup in the SEC. Arkansas doesn’t focus as much on forcing turnovers as other SEC teams, and forcing turnovers doesn’t work very well against UK. Instead, Arkansas uses the size of their wings to force opponents into contested shots. The Razorbacks actually block as many midrange shots as they do at the rim, thanks to the length of their wings. This can cause a lot of trouble for UK, as the Wildcats need Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington’s penetration to key a lot of offense. Wheeler’s penetration sets up threes, but UK’s rate of 3 pt attempts against Arkansas was their lowest in 8 games precisely becase that action was contained. Tyty Washington is crafty at scoring inside of 17 feet, but hit just 2 of 6 inside that range against Arkansas (compared to 57% for the season) with their length bothering him.
Arkansas is vulnerable around the rim to bigger players, however. Oscar Tshiebwe absolutely wrecked Jaylin Williams to the tune of 12-13 shooting at the rim. Keion Brooks finished 5-6 there, and Jacob Toppin was 1-1. Arkansas doesn’t have the additional length beyond Williams to challenge Brooks and Toppin at the rim, and the Razorbacks have been vulnerable to cuts by opposing bigs. Brooks and Toppin run that action a fair amount, and should be able to score.
I am optimistic Kentucky can beat Arkansas, even if it will be challenging. In the first game UK lost by just 2 despite Arkansas hitting 10-15 from midrange and UK hitting just 9-38 away from the rim. UK may struggle away from the rim again, but Arkansas probably won’t replicate their season-best 67% from midrange again. This should be quite a battle, unless either team gets wildly hot from three.
Kentucky is very likely the best team in the SEC, but not by a large margin. I think Tennessee and Auburn are fairly good matchups for the Cats, while Arkansas will probably present the biggest test. The most important thing for me to see is whether UK keeps up their defensive intensity, and if the outside shooting of Mintz and Washington rounds back into form. With those, Kentucky is fully loaded for a deep postseason run.