Gathering my thoughts on the Gonzaga loss
The Wildcats looked unprepared and unfocused in a highly anticipated matchup. Why do things keep going wrong for UK?
Kentucky’s loss to Gonzaga seems to have brought out simmering frustration in the fanbase who are tired of several years in a row of overall disappointment. This was supposed to be the season where UK avenged recent frustrations and re-established themselves as bullies, but again the story is early season losses to quality opponents. Over the last 3 seasons Kentucky is now 1-7 in November and December against non-conferences foes in the KenPom top 50.
I wanted to take a couple days to review the data and rewatch much of the game to really identify what went wrong. Through this, I found 3 key issues that I want to focus on:
Kentucky let Gonzaga dictate who was going to get (and take) open threes
Jacob Toppin is not being put in a position to succeed on offense
Kentucky was either unprepared defensively or prone to forgetting their preparation
Join me as I lay out the data, and relevant video clips via GIF, to show what I mean.
Not really a Reeves/Fredrick shooting issue
Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick combined to go 3-13 from three in this game, which isn’t great but in my mind wasn’t a massive issue. Of their 13 threes, only 5 were unguarded catch-and-shoot looks. They went 1-5, and maybe they go 2-5 or 3-5 normally…but that’s pretty small potatoes. They took 4 guarded catch and shoot looks and 4 dribble jumpers and hit 1 of each; based on their shooting at prior stops maybe they hit 3 or 4 of those instead of just 2 combined. Let’s say that with some normal shooting luck they hit 5 or 6 threes in stead of 3; then Kentucky loses by 7-10 points instead?
My bigger issue with outside shooting was that Sahvir Wheeler and Jacob Toppin were featured in a heavy dose of catch and shoot looks. They took 8 threes, all of them unguarded catch and shoot looks, and hit 1. The problem is, those two players combined are 16-53 over the last two seasons on unguarded catch and shoot threes. That’s 30%. Gonzaga clearly was prepared to leave Wheeler and Toppin open from three in order to cut off drives, and UK just let that happen. Take a look at these two examples where Wheeler and Toppin’s defenders ignore them to help on drives or roll men, perfectly content to give up threes to those guys:
Sahvir Wheeler is at his best as a playmaker off the dribble, kicking to shooters or finding a roll man diving to the rim. He can finish at the rim if he gets there, too. What he absolutely isn’t is a catch and shoot threat, but UK’s offense used him that way on multiple occasions. Honestly, I’m not sure what Jacob Toppin is on offense. He’s taken the most shots of any UK player in halfcourt offense (41), but he’s 6-26 away from the rim. He can score at the rim, but UK doesn’t run any action to get him there in halfcourt. He doesn’t have the ballhandling craft to create for himself, so he looks out of place in the offense right now.
Toppin struggling around the rim
Toppin has struggled quite a bit so far this season on offense. Against Michigan State, he did not get to the rim once and settled instead for a steady diet of midrange jumpers. He did get 5 attempts at the rim against Gonzaga, but only hit two…and he didn’t get many good looks. For example, here are a couple post-ups:
Toppin posted up a total of 7 times all last season, for 6 points. He might be able to be decent there, but I don’t think Kentucky needs Toppin posting up when Oscar Tshiebwe is on the court. Tshiebwe is better at posting up than Toppin, and having Oscar on the court to watch someone else post up is a waste of his time since he’s not a shooter. Post-ups are almost always contested shots, as well; in the first GIF above Toppin had his shot blocked. These just aren’t a useful offensive strategy. The problem is, it’s difficult for UK to create any room for Toppin to use his athletic gifts around the rim without multiple defenders crowding him:
In the GIF on the left, Wheeler tries an alley oop when he has no driving lane (dueto Oscar in his way) and Gonzaga has 4 defenders around the paint. In the GIF on the right, Toppin drives in the lane with 4 Gonzaga defenders again there, and Toppin’s defender (Drew Timme) just waiting back in his way. There’s frequently no space for Toppin to get to the rim, and he can’t create his own space. He’s a good finisher in transition and against weaker teams, but against better competition he doesn’t have a role in UK’s offense right now.
A complete mess defending the rim
The bigger issue for me was UK’s defense against Gonzaga, particularly in the halfcourt defending the rim. Drew Timme absolutely feasted there, repeatedly scoring with little trouble:
Timme’s an All American, but that defense above is ridiculous. In the first GIF, I have no idea what Oscar Tshiebwe is doing, as he doesn’t double team and doesn’t contest Timme’s shot. The second was the first play out of halftime, and Oscar literally turned around and failed to challenge an easy shot at the rim by a Gonzaga guard. In the third, I again have no idea what the plan is. Ugonna Onyenso decides for some reason to pick up Timme at the three point line, despite the fact that Drew Timme is 15-55 from three in his entire college career. Then Onyenso is slow to move his feet with Timme and gives up a driving layup. Drew Timme had scored zero points on isolations in 3 previous games this season and 9 total all of last season; he put up 7 against Kentucky.
It wasn’t just Timme, though. Rasir Bolton and Anton Watson had combined to go 3-8 at the rim in halfcourt offense in Gonzaga’s first 3 games but were 7 of 9 there against UK. Sometimes the issue was perimeter defenders getting blown by, like Antonio reeves here:
And sometimes the issue was a poorly executed team defensive concept, like CJ Fredrick took the blame for here:
In the second clip, Fredrick was scored on easily in the post, but there’s a lot of context to consider. First, he’s fronting here but doing so pretty poorly…that’s an odd choice but also poor work by him. The bigger question for me is why Oscar Tshiebwe is following Drew Timme as he walks out to the three point line, clearing the path for the pass and lay-in. Again, Timme IS NOT AN OUTSIDE SHOOTER. This action by Gonzaga is clearly meant to exploit a defense that is acting without a purpose, and it worked like a charm.
I am sure there were a multitude of breakdowns where Wildcat players ran the wrong offensive set. John Calipari claims as much and I believe he’s telling the truth. When I step back and consider this game, I’m struck by several examples of poor strategy and/or preparation:
A willingness to take the bad shots given to you by the defense, without making clear to your players that such a thing may happen and not to fall into the trap
The complete lack of a plan to use the skills of your main rotation players (Jacob Toppin in this case), and allowing your offense to focus on things players do poorly
A seeming lack of scouting and preparation to deal with key players on the other team, and a lack of recgnition of the opponent’s weaknesses which leaves defenders in position to be exploited
It is completely inexcusable for Oscar Tshiebwe to have been this unprepared to defend Drew Timme. If there was a defensive gameplan, it either was not a good one or it was not effectively communicated. It’s 100% the responsibility of the coaching staff to prepare players to handle key situations, and to create advantageous situations. Against Gonzaga, Kentucky’s staff did not do that.