Florida State as UofL's template, plus 2023-24 targets
What does it mean to discuss UofL as becoming "Florida State"?
With Louisville prioritizing length virtually across their roster, Cardinal fans naturally look to a conference foe for a comparison of what’s possible: Florida State. Leonard Hamilton has elevated the Seminoles program using a blueprint of player length and roster depth. Now Kenny Payne seemingly has visions of an army of 6’7” athletes swallowing up opposing pipsqueaks all along the perimeter. In what specific ways does a team like that achieve success? What might be some of the weaknesses? Florida State’s recent seasons can serve as a guidepost for Louisville fans.
A program with some success...but not a lot
Florida State’s basketball program has 67 seasons under their belt and 18 NCAA Tournament appearances. Since tourney expansion in 1985, they’ve made 14 tourney appearances in 39 years. That’s not exactly qualifying them for blueblood status, but it’s nothing to completely scoff at.
Leonard Hamilton’s time heading up the program has been a slight uptick, but not massive. He’s made 8 NCAA tourneys in 21 years, vs 6 in the prior 18. He’s won at a 62% clip vs a 58% mark for FSU pre-Hamilton. The zenith of the program is their 2019-2021 three season run with their only ACC regular season title and consistent placement in the AP top 20. Those are the only 3 seasons in the history of KenPom ranking where they finised as a top-20 team. What helped the Seminoles achieve these heights in these specific years?
In each of these seasons Florida State was a top-30ish offense and defense. In 2019 and 2020 the defense was stronger and in 2021 the offense was stronger, but neither end of the court fell off in this stretch in any way.
Hamilton’s Florida State teams nearly always have success on either end at the rim. They tend to rank highly in FG% at the rim on offense and in FG% allowed at the rim on defense, largely thanks to shotblocking. But in these 3 seasons, the Seminoles improved markedly in a few areas:
Offensive rebounding: Every Seminole team under Hamilton that has mde the NCAA Tournament has ranked in the top 100 in offensive rebound rate, while only 4 of the 12 who missed hit that threshold (none in top 50). From 2019-2021, they were 41st or better each year.
3 point shooting: only 6 times in Hamilton’s tenure has Florida State finished in the top 100 in 3pt FG%. Two of those were 2020 and 2021, including a program-best 21st in 2021.
Forcing turnovers: From 2013-2018 Florida State never ranked in the top 100 nationall in defensive turnover rate; they then ranked 69th in 2019 and 9th in 2020.
The Seminoles also have had other statistical areas where they have never been very good, as they make some strategic choices.
Turnovers (on offense): Only once under Hamilton has Florida State finished in the top 100 in offensive turnover rate (2018); they have been 300th or worse 5 times! They have made the NCAA tourney 3 of those times and missed the tourney with 22 wins in a 4th time. Prioritizing long athletes over smaller ballhandling whizzes costs them in this area but has been a net positive, it seems.
Defensive rebounding: Florida State has never been a top-100 defensive rebounding team under Hamilton, and they’ve been sub-300 4 times (including 2021). The Seminoles prioritize blocking shots, and sometimes in the chase for those blocks they are out of position for rebounds.
Most of the time when Florida State has been and elite (top 20ish) offense or defense, they’ve improved a bit in these areas…but they’ve been able to be very good overall even while choosing to punt these areas. So what does this mean for Louisville?
Improvement needed in some key areas
Louisville’s roster improvement this offseason should translate to statistical improvement in two key areas:
Dennis Evans should be a shotblocking monster
Tre White and Skyy Clark flashed ability (in limited time) to finish at the rim better than nearly any of the Cards who have left since last year
This should get UofL to a baseline level of competency next season. To step up to being an NCAA Tournament contender, they’ll need improvement somewhere else…and I’m not sure where that comes from:
Turnovers (defense): None of this year’s Cards have ever posted a steal rate in college that I’d even qualify as “good”. 2% or higher is a reasonable baseline and 3% or higher is outsanding.
Turnovers (offense): None of this year’s Cards have ever had more assists than turnovers in a college season
3 point shooting: Only Mike James has ever hit more than 33% of his 3 pointers in a college season
Rebounding: Huntley-Hatfield and Traynor were the worst rebounders of UofL’s bigs last season, and they are the two who return
This puts a ton of pressure on either 1) major jumps from players with college experience or 2) immense contributions from Trentyn Flowers, Dennis Evans, and anyone else who gets significant time.
With that in mind, here’s what I’d target for Louisville as statistical benchmarks:
Hit 62% or better at the rim (vs 58% last season), roughly top-100
Block 12% of opponent two pointers or more; this should be top-40 nationally
Reduce turnover rate on offense from 22% to ~19%; this should get to top 250 nationally
Rebound 30% of own misses or more; this should be top-125 nationally, up from 192nd last season
Hit 35% from 3pt range or better; this should be about 125th or better
If Louisville hits these marks I think they can be a middle of the pack ACC team this year. That would be a huge leap forward from last season, and leaves further room for improvement as the roster continues to be upgraded in future seasons. If they miss on some of these, it’s going to be very tough to find other areas where they’d make up the slack. If the talent upgrades don’t manifest in better results (in stats and wins), I don’t know where better answers will come from.